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Stable oil prices and low volatility in 2018- the result of U.S. shale oil supply stream and OPEC/Russia cuts
06/01/2018
This low volatility in oil prices is good for both producers and consumers, and shale oil from U.S. is a big part of this.
Linked Articles
How OPEC and Shale Have Squeezed Out Volatility in the Oil Market
WSJ 06/01/2018
The New Tech That Terrifies OPECWSJ 06/01/2018
Goldman Sachs and the Trump administration- Steven Mnuchin at Treasury and Gary Cohen at the National Economic Council
12/09/2016
Bank stocks are up with the election of Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs share price up 34%, with the push back against regulation of banks following the 2008 financial crisis.
Linked Articles
Goldman Sachs No. 2 Seen as a Top Economic Adviser to Trump
The New York Times 12/09/2016
Trump Plans to Name Steven Mnuchin as Treasury SecretaryWSJ 11/29/2016
U.S. president Obama and prime minister Narendra Modi of India- forging a new chapter in relations
06/06/2016
Linked Articles
President Obama and India’s Modi Forge an Unlikely Friendship
The New York Times 06/06/2016
A renewed U.S.-India partnership for the 21st century - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/30/2014
Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
Criticism of the $8.3 million Dec. 2015 'comfort women' agreement between Japanese prime minister Abe and South Korean prime minister Lee
12/29/2015
Linked Articles
South Korean and Japanese Leaders Feel Backlash From ‘Comfort Women’ Deal
New York Times 12/29/2015
Coming to Terms on Japan’s Wartime Sex SlavesNew York Times 12/30/2015
An extended period of low oil prices expected in December 2015 as Saudis and other producers plan no changes to production
12/07/2015
Linked Articles
As Oil Keeps Falling, Nobody Is Blinking
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2015
Oil Prices Plunge 5% After OPEC Stands PatNew York Times 12/07/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Economic changes in the first year of the Modi administration in India- groundwork for 2016-2018
05/23/2015
Linked Articles
Economist 05/23/2015
How to run a continentEconomist 05/23/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
The Obama administration's efforts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after losing allies in Asia and Europe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
04/17/2015
The Obama administration pushes a free trade pact that includes the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. This free trade pact is now seen as a U.S. effort to counter China in the Asian region. India, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other European countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank sponsored by China, on its merits, after the U.S. refused to join.
Linked Articles
TPP: Momentum on Trade Deal Bolsters U.S., Japan Efforts to Counter China
Wall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Lawmakers Introduce ‘Fast Track’ Trade Bill, Triggering Democratic DiscordWall Street Journal 04/17/2015
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, and Russia's response to the collapse in oil prices that helped avoid effects on the economy
02/09/2015
Exceptional performance by an exceptional economy minister and banker. Elvira Nabiullina's humility, drive and policies help shape Russia's careful management of the collapse in oil prices.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
Declining inflation and interest rate cuts in India in 2015
01/14/2015
Linked Articles
India’s Inflation Fight Pays Early Dividend
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2015
Suddenly, India Cuts Interest RatesNew York Times 01/14/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Lessons for India, Mexico and China from the failures in Brazil
04/03/2018
Linked Articles
These Developing Countries Are Getting Old Before They Get Rich, with Dire Consequences
WSJ 04/02/2018
Yellow Fever Circles Brazil’s Huge CitiesThe New York Times 03/05/2018
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (1) the pro stay vote in Ireland and Scotland
08/16/2016
Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, is deeply committed to the idea of the union of England with Scotland and Ireland. Invoking Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, a step necessary for Brexit, would also lead to Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party to initiate plans for a second referendum for Scottish independence, as Scotland votd to remain in the European Union. The issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU would also lead to serious repercussions. In short it will be hard to separate the leave vote in England from the stay vote in Scotland and Ireland, as it will be difficult for most British people to imagine a England without a British identity. If the referendum had asked the second question "Do you still vote leave if this means the end of Britain or the United Kingdom?" the vote could have turned out differently for nationalist voters.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
No return to border controls in Northern Ireland, UK PM May says | News | DW.COM | 25.07.2016DW.COM 07/25/2016
Brazil's economic and political crisis in 2016 following corruption scandals, the collapse of commodity prices, and a budget deficit of 10.8%
04/19/2016
Linked Articles
Dilma Rousseff looks increasingly likely to be impeached
Economist 04/19/2016
Impeachment Won’t Save BrazilWall Street Journal 04/19/2016
The standoff between Saudi Arabia and Russia/ Iran that created the prospect of low oil prices for the long term - (1) Saudis and Russian resilience in the face of low oil prices
01/25/2016
Linked Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects ShrinkWall Street Journal 01/25/2016
China and India at the Paris climate change talks
12/09/2015
Linked Articles
As U.S. and Europe Pass the Hat at Climate Talks, China Clings to Developing-Nation Status
New York Times 12/09/2015
For Indians, Smog and Poverty Are Higher Priorities Than Talks in ParisNew York Times 12/09/2015
The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China
10/21/2015
Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.
Linked Articles
China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Yum Brands to Split Off China BusinessWall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Ford Motor's higher profits from larger vehicles in the U.S. and China in 2015- the redesigned F-150 pickup, SUV's, with higher fuel efficiency, lower gas prices and lower interest rates
07/29/2015
Linked Articles
GM, Ford, Flourish Out of the Limelight
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Ford Bets on Fancy PickupsWall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020
05/14/2015
With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.
Linked Articles
Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change
New York Times 06/05/2015
Indian Prime Minister Prods Coal MonopolyWall Street Journal 05/14/2015
Hard realities- what a Greek exit from the eurozone in 2015 could do for Greece and for the European Union
04/29/2015
The Economist says Greece could end up becoming a failed state at the doorstep of the European Union. With the major parties losing support extreme parties on the right and left would increase support. The economy of Greece would suffer serious damage. As prices have declined by 16% with no surge in exports, a devaluation of the drachma would not be of much help. Argentina went through a period of severe hardship following the default on the currency. Greece, says the Economist, may be engaging in a strategy to extract concessions from the EU by waiting till the last minute. Yet this strategy has its drawbacks because of the damage to Greece's economy in the process, with the slight growth under the Samaras administration turning into a recession with the 6 months of the Syriza government in 2015.
Linked Articles
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
My big fat Greek divorceEconomist 06/20/2015
U.S. shale oil producers confounding Saudi price strategy- (1) 77 U.S. companies acting like tech startups with access to capital markets
03/14/2015
Linked Articles
OPEC’s Problem: There Is No Minister of Shale
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2015
U.S. Producers Ready New Oil WaveWall Street Journal 03/14/2015
Challenges facing the Tories and prime minister Cameron as Britain faces parliamentary elections in May 2015
01/19/2015
Linked Articles
U.K.’s 2015 Election Carries High Stakes for EU
Wall Street Journal 01/19/2015
Britain’s Costly DebateWall Street Journal 01/21/2015
U.S. shale oil producers confounding Saudi oil price strategy- (2) the effect of technological advances and the future
01/13/2015
Linked Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
Exxon Mobil: Shale to the ChiefWall Street Journal 03/06/2015
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