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IMF Report Offers Bleak Outlook for Greece
Keywords:
After the debt swap of old bonds for new bonds with private bondholders for an estimated 53% haircut, the IMF's March 2012 report on Greece says a lot remains unresolved. It predicts a "disorderly exit from the euro" without further help. The April 2012 elections may result in a dilution to committments to austerity policies in Greece, as these policies are highly unpopular in Greece. Greece is still "accident-prone." And competitiveness issues may take over a decade to resolve.
The IMF's March 2012 Report on Greece predicting "a disorderly exit from the euro" in the absence of further support
05/27/2010
The IMF says Greece is still "accident-prone" after the dept swap with private bondholders in March 2012. Its competitiveness problem may take a decade to resolve.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
Francois Hollande, Socialist party candidate for president in France, on the EU's handling of the debt crisis in Greece
06/30/2011
Francois Hollande says the EU mishandled the Greece crisis. Greece should have been handled as an extraordinary situation with earlier debt restructuring from public and private creditors to bring Greece's debt down to 60% of GDP. The current coordinated plan of the EU, ECB and the IMF only brings debt down to 120% of GDP in 2020. Hollande said he understands the need to reduce the budget deficit with cuts but without growth it can't work.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
French Candidate Hollande Assails European Policy on Greece
New York Times 02/13/2012
Athens Shaken by Riots After Vote for Greek Austerity Plan
New York Times 02/13/2012
Austerity Debate a Matter of Degree
Wall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2012
IMF in the Eurozone financial crisis of 2010-2012
03/03/2010
Aid package to Greece and funds for other eurozone countries. The IMF's involvement in protecting the eurozone.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2010
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
The IMF and the year to year growth of a country's outstanding Credit to GDP Ratio as a Warning Light Indicator for Country Economies
04/14/2010
The outstanding credit of a country to its GDP ratio and its year to year growth is a warning light indicator is used by the IMF. If the year to year growth in this ratio is over 5 percentage points for a country in a particular year it indicates a warning light. Using this indicator Brazil, China, Turkey are in anticipatory crisis conditions. Use of this indicator would have predicted the crisis in the U.S. in 2008, and the crisis in Ireland, Portugal and Greece, ahead of time so that action could be taken.
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Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
New York Times 06/05/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
The urgency for recapitalization of European banks in 2011-2015
07/13/2011
EU banks face potential losses of 300 billion euros from troubled EU countries. 120 billion euros from Italy, Spain and Belgium, 60 billion euros from Greece, 20 billion euros from Ireland and Portugal, and $100 billion euros from other banking exposure, accordig to the IMF. IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, has pointed to the urgent need for recapitalization of European banks,urgently because restricted lending by EU banks in the absence of recapitalization could further damage the economies of EU countries.
Grouped Articles
Spanish Banks More Vulnerable Than Italy's
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
Bank of Italy Inspecting Top Lenders' Books
Wall Street Journal 07/30/2013
Central Bank Details Somber State of Europe’s Banking System
New York Times 10/13/2014
Wall Street Journal 07/04/2015
The Banker Who Is No Longer Welcome in Restaurants
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2016
Italy Agrees on Fund to Support Battered Lenders
Wall Street Journal 04/12/2016
Lawyers Buchheit and Gulati who advised Greece's government on the bond restructuring deal in March 2012
06/30/2011
Buchheit and Gulati helped Greece achieve the bondholder write-off deal through the legal mechanism of writing a collective action clause. This was possible because Greece's bonds to private investors were issued under Greek law. Collective action clauses make it possible to ensure a deal is made even if some private investors reject it. A haircut for private investors with a bond swap was designed to reduce Greece's debt to a sustainable level.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
A Bold Proposal to Offer Greece Some Financial Relief
New York Times 07/10/2015
The final terms of the Greek debt swap in March 2012
06/30/2011
The final terms of the swap of new bonds with longer maturities and lower interest rates for old bonds, at a fraction of the face value (estimated at 53.5%), become clear on March 9, 2012. Greece's government writes new collective action clauses to complete the deal with private bondholders.
Grouped Articles
Greek Bonds Soar After Fitch Upgrade
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Fitch Raises Greece's Credit Rating
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
Greece Gets Rating Recognition
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2013
Greece Bulls Charge Into Corporate Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/15/2013
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, on why the European Union will endure regardless of the outcome in Greece
02/10/2012
Mario Monti tells the editors of the New York Times in an interview, that the EU will endure because it was in the interests of Germany. Competitive devaluations if countries left the EU would have an enormous harmful impact on Germany. Germany send two thirds of its exports to EU countries. Monti says even if Greece were to exit the euro the EU will endure. The vision of a united Europe continues to shape its politics.
Grouped Articles
Italy's Monti Hopes Summit Win Plays at Home
Wall Street Journal 06/29/2012
Italian Prime Ministerâs Political Acrobatics
New York Times 04/28/2013
Italian Left Bolstered by Showing in Mayoral Races
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2013
‘The European Union needs Italy’ - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/18/2013
New York Times 05/22/2014
Italyâs Leader Is Optimistic About Greece and Euro
New York Times 02/10/2012
Dutchman Bob Traa's mid-2009 IMF report on Greece and the warning light on Greece
03/03/2010
Analysts point to the lack of immediate action as the main reason the crisis is spiralling out of control. The IMF report in mid 2009 raised the alarm on Greece's financial situation. One estimate is for bondholders needing to take 85% haircut on loans to Greece, instead of the 50% agreed to under the EU plan in November 2011. The situation has worsened as ECB president Trichet and others in the EU pushed austerity plans on Greece without working out needed serious debt reduction of over half the debt in 2009. The idea of a default in the eurozone was considered unthinkable, leading to errors in judgement by decisionmakers.
Grouped Articles
Greek Debt Crisis: The Back Story
New York Times 08/13/2011
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Greece and the illusory nature of the troika's (ECB, IMF, EU) target for debt to GDP of 120% in 2020
06/30/2011
The artificial nature of the target especially considering all the unpredictables invoved.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
The Greek Debt Deal’s Missing Piece
New York Times 08/15/2015
The IMF and a new approach to Greece's debt crisis
04/28/2010
Christine Lagarde says Greece needs 2 more years to achieve deficit targets on Oct 11, 2013. She says the same approach of giveing more time to Portugal and Spain applies to Greece. This puts more pressure on Germany to provide new flexibility.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Charlie Rose Talks to Christine Lagarde
BusinessWeek 04/28/2010
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
The logjam between the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) and the German government- 2010-2012
07/01/2011
The roots of the Eurozone financial crisis go back to the issue of who should pay for the excess lending of French and German banks. Will it be the German taxpayer or the banks that took excessive risks? German financial experts, the German government and parliament, German public opinion, are all adamantly opposed to letting the banks off without sharing at least 50% of the costs of a bailout. A review done by the European Commission in coordination witht he IMF and the ECB, shows that from May 2010 (the date for the inception of the aid program to Greece) to September 2011, $52 billion of the $91 billion loaned to Greece went to pay bondholders for bonds that came due. The July 2011 EU agreement for Greece called for 21% of losses to be allocated to the bondholders. The German government is pushing for 50% and German parlamentary leaders in Merkel's party are balking at anything less.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/13/2011
New York Times 04/13/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Most Greek bailout money has gone to pay off bondholders - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/23/2011
Dexiaâs Collapse in Europe Points to Global Risks
New York Times 10/22/2011
European Officials Shaping Greek Rescue and Effort to Aid Banks
New York Times 10/22/2011
John Cochrane and other experts give a no-nonsense view of the bailouts and the financial crises facing Europe
12/02/2010
Insights that the real problem is short term debt financing. The need for the EU to insist on long tem debt financing for governments in Europe. The solution for this crisis is not in bailouts of Greece, Spain, Italy and so on, but to swap the short term debt for debt with longer term maturities, and for bondholders to take a haircut. Similiar to the Brady Plan for Latin America in the late 1980's. The bailout of Ireland in reality not a bailout of Ireland, as a bailout of German and British banks that made risky loans to Irish banks and the Irish government. The U.S. government's debt also tilted to short term debt and problems similar to European problems.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
As Ireland Flails, Europe Lurches Across the Rubicon
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2010
Running the euro zone: Pact of uncompetitiveness
Economist 02/12/2011
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2011
Europe Needs to Apportion Pain
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2011
Risks posed by credit default swaps and derivatives in the event of a default in Greece or other stressed EU countries- 2011-2012
06/22/2011
The total credit default swaps, derivatives and financial instruments for a default in 5 financially stressed EU countries are estimated at $616 billion based on information from Markit, the Bank for International Settlements and data firms. Systemic risks are posed by this and by any surprises that are not visible to regulators at this time. These fears affect Europeans response to the debt problems, as they have no clear idea of what to expect out there.
Grouped Articles
Greece Defaults on IMF Loan Despite New Push for Bailout Aid
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2015
Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout From a Greek Default
New York Times 06/22/2011
Regulators Finalize New Derivatives Rules
New York Times 07/08/2011
Watchdog Sees Financial Weak Spots
Wall Street Journal 07/26/2011
Investors Ask if Anything Can Save Greece From Default
New York Times 09/25/2011
Banks Conduct Greek 'Fire Drills'
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2011
A warning light for Greece to exit the eurozone and return to the drachma to restore competitiveness and growth 2011-2012
05/26/2010
Greece needs to lower prices by 31% just to get to the level of Turkey, says the head of the Ifo research institute in Germany, Wener Sinn. Experts fear a breakdown in civil order inside Greece if deflation at this level occurs with Greece still using the euro. Hollande, the Socialist party candidate in France, also expressed similiar concerns, as reported in the New York Times, calling it a breakup in European governance that followed the breakdown in Greek governance. Sinn says the bondholders are overly exaggerating the risks of a breakup in the eurozone if Greece exits the euro.
Grouped Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
New York Times 09/25/2011
New York Times 05/26/2010
New Attempt at French-German Amity Stumbles in Venice
Wall Street Journal 08/21/2013
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
Departing EADS Chief Urges Europe to Recommit to Industry
New York Times 04/12/2012
Lack of competitiveness in the economy of Greece
01/29/2011
Grouped Articles
New York Times 09/25/2011
In Greece, a Brewer's Dream Runs Into Frustration
New York Times 01/29/2011
Gap in Competitiveness Weighs on Europe, Analysts Say
New York Times 01/15/2012
Greek Premier Is Tested in Impasse Over Pay Cuts
New York Times 02/03/2012
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Germany's Inflated Fear of Inflation
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
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