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Ratings Firms Misread Signs of Greek Woes
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Julie Creswell and Graham Bowley look at the history of setting ratings for Greece at Moody's credit rating agency. Greece always had a history of problems with its credit standing including two defaults in its history. In 2004 Greece admitted to providing false statistics to enter the eurozone, saying that it had run deficits for each year since 1997. Before joining the eurozone Greece was assessed an interest rate of 15% on Greek bonds, after joining the eurozone borrowing rates dropped to 5%. Was such a large differential justified purely on the basis of the assumption that the eurozone would back Greece. Moody's held onto its A rating on Greek debt right upto December 2009, two years before the country faced certain default. Pierre Cailletau, Moody's head of sovereign debt ratings till the spring of 2010 admits that Moody's assessment was "mediocre" and that this is a very, very steep fall to see in a ratings- something had gone very, very wrong. The ratings agencies say bankers were selling the idea that the Greek growth story was real. This suggests bankers did not read Greece's financial history of defaults, did not understand the lessons of the recurring Latin American debt crises that countries such as Argentina could only absorb capital upto the point of productive capabilities. And the euro currency founders had left a weak gap - the perception through an implied guarantee that the whole eurozone would ante up the money for the failings of individual countries- into which bankers and Greece's political class rushed in.
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Books on the euro-zone financial crisis of 2010-2012
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The book "Greece's 'Odious Debt': The Looting of the Hellenic Republic," is a frank and insightful acccount of the Greek debt crisis by a hedge fund manager for emerging markets, Jason Manalopoulos. He asks timely and relevant questions which can be posed for Greece, the U.S. and other countries.
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Dutchman Bob Traa's mid-2009 IMF report on Greece and the warning light on Greece
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Analysts point to the lack of immediate action as the main reason the crisis is spiralling out of control. The IMF report in mid 2009 raised the alarm on Greece's financial situation. One estimate is for bondholders needing to take 85% haircut on loans to Greece, instead of the 50% agreed to under the EU plan in November 2011. The situation has worsened as ECB president Trichet and others in the EU pushed austerity plans on Greece without working out needed serious debt reduction of over half the debt in 2009. The idea of a default in the eurozone was considered unthinkable, leading to errors in judgement by decisionmakers.
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The financial crisis in the euro-zone and a similar situation that prevailed in Argentina in 2001. Experts from that period are convinced that euro-zone bondholders will have to accept securities offering less interest and maturing over a longer period.
Grouped Articles
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Linked Articles
Ratings Firms Misread Signs of Greek Woes
New York Times 11/29/2011
Wall Street Journal 03/03/2010
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