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Strange Encounter: The IMF and Athens
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Christopher Power talks to three former IMF officials. If offered the Greece portfolio at the IMF, Simon Johnson, (a former IMF official) says he would ask for a transfer to Iceland, because Greece is incredibly complex, with the IMF unlikely to impose conditions. Especially with IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn's aspirations to become President of France. The ECB controls Greek monetary policy and there is no chance of a devaluation with the Greeks in the euro currency. This leaves Greece locked into an unsustainable currency rate. Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Mussa, both agree that the IMF can help buy time for Greece with bridge loans and laying a framework for confidence. Mussa points to the Greek problem- the credit markets won't buy their bonds forever and at the same time its a nasty business to have a sovereign default in the euro currency area. Mussa sees the situation as much like that of GM. Bush bought time for an orderly transition should GM have to declare bankruptcy, which is what happened under Obama. With the European recovery weak, Portugal and Spain fragile, an orderly arrangement is critical not to upset markets. Its like kicking the can down the street, says Mussa, but that can have some advantages.
What Greece, Ireland, Britain and Spain have in common after the Dubai debt crisis.
11/20/2009
It costs close to 400,000 to insure $10 million of government debt against default for Greece. The numbers are close tov $300,000 for Ireland, close to $200,000 for Britain and close to 100,000 for Germany. See graph.Ireland just announced its new budget in December 2009 with strict austerity measures and cutting public sector pay. See the link to Ireland. Recent taxes on bank bonuses in Britain raise $500 million and attempt to assuage public sentiment.
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