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Holding China to Account
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Krugman says China's inflation is raising labor costs in China, and in this way gradually reducing the undervaluation of the yuan vs the dollar. But he cautions this would take a long time, 4-5 years. The U.S. faces the costs of high unemployment close to 10% today, and this requires serious efforts now to reduce the undervaluation. It alone will not solve America's problems. It is one of a number of actions that need to be taken and not put off again.
Krugman on economic policy and prospects for the U.S. in 2010-12
08/08/2010
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Experts who agree that its beneficial for the U.S. to lift exports through devaluation of the currency.
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This includes Krugman, recent Nobel Prize winner, Morici, University of Maryland, Hatzius of Goldman and Kasman of JP Morgan. Other experts also welcome the depreciation ogf the dollar as long as it is not a sudden drop. With consumers strapped, quantitiative easing reaching its limits, the stimulus in place, rising unemployment in 2010 and very poor capacity utilization, exports are a sure way to lift the economy. Morici and Krugman see a Chinese disconnect with it siphonig growth away from other countries through keeping its currency low. Morici cites the example of solar panels where China requires 75% domestic content for imports.
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As Dollar Weakens, Paulson Faces Challenge of Tempering Its Decline - WSJ.com
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China Rejects Currency Manipulation Charge
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U.S. and China- Trade Wars.
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American action against products from China that are dumped on the U.S. market. The unervalued Chinese currency and subsidized exports.
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Robert Lighthizer and other experts call for trade and globalization practices that work for the U.S.
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The failure of the establishment of both parties in the USA to take action in the face of the loss of 5.6 million jobs in the last decade, with $4.3 trillion in trade imbalances. An issue which resonates with voters in the US and could lead to a fundamental realignent of American attitudes to globalization and free trade. The feeling that the free-trade deck is stacked against the USA by Asian countries. China's efforts to keep the yuan dollar exchange rate at levels that favor exports. China's accumulation of over $3 trillion in dollar reserves that are parked mostly in Treasury's that keep U.S. interests low. Distortons in the global economy from the failure to rebalance the world economy hurts China and the U.S.
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Chimerica as economic monster and the 10-10 deal, 10% growth in China and 10% unemployment in the USA.
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Niall Ferguson at Harvard and Moritz Schularick of the Free University of Berlin say giving a peaceful death to this monster is long overdue. Krugman also calls this a world out of balance on the pages of the NYT, November 16, 2009.
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How policy and mood is shifting in China, Japan and Europe for exchange rates between currencies. The desire to be less dependent on exports and increase domestic demand in these countries just as thrifty consumers in the US make earlier policies obsolete.
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Frankly Speaking on the great recession, the dollar and trade deficits 2009-2012
10/14/2009
Peter Morici of the University of Maryland and others express their view in 2009 on what needs to happen. The dollar Morici says needs to be devalued 40-50% against the yuan. He says that while China talks about an alternative reserve currency, it is part of the problem. And the crisis was caused by the U.S. demand that was inflated by the cheap yuan and then collapsed, says Morici.
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The U.S., China, and 'Rebalancing' the World Economy
01/07/2010
'Rebalancing' is the idea that China will consumer more US goods and export less to the US, reducing the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. China's government continues its focus on exports and infrastructure in 2009-2011. China's banking system focusses on lending to state-owned companies and the system does not have the attitude, incentives or the mechanisms and experience to increase lending to consumers or small business. Experts say rebalancing is doubtful without serious changes in the banking system and government policy which are not likely.
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China's Trade Balance
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Every $1 increase in oil prices reduces China's trade deficit by $1.9 billion, according to one estimate. China had a trade deficit in February 2011. This reduces the pressures on the yuan. See the IMF forecast on China's shrinking trade surplus in 2011-2014.
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Currency issues and U.S.-China trade.
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Trade between the USA and China and currency issues. Obama administration's efforts to address currency issues and fair trade issues with other countries.
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The yuan in global trade and finance transactions and China's foreign exchange reserves
01/03/2011
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IMF Lifts Chinese Yuan to Elite Lending-Reserve Currency Status
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China Steps Up, but Its Currency Still Has Dues to Pay
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