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Last Chance to Save the Euro
Keywords:
Cochrane says the best option today is for Europe to accept a sovereign default for Greece. He says the European Central Bank which stands behind the euro, should not be used for buying bonds of troubled countries with shaky "collateral." This would only lead to a situation where EU countries would have to recapitalize the ECB. He emphasizes the fact that Greece will not pay back this debt. And the only way out is to have a situation similiar to Argentina where it needs to start over, and it would at some point be able to borrow again. Austerity is deeply unpopular in Greece and with higher unemployment Greece's financial situation is rapidly deteriorating. Making austerity something that was tried to buy time but will not work. Cochrane also makes the point that the euro itself acts like the euro bonds that EU countries are reluctant to support, it means the ECB backs the currency and supports it- which makes it vital to keep the ECB whole and prevent the dilution of its financial strength. Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, resigned to express his opposition to the ECB buying the bonds of troubled eurozone countries, which he said was outside the ECB's mandate to conduct monetary policy.
John Cochrane and other experts give a no-nonsense view of the bailouts and the financial crises facing Europe
12/02/2010
Insights that the real problem is short term debt financing. The need for the EU to insist on long tem debt financing for governments in Europe. The solution for this crisis is not in bailouts of Greece, Spain, Italy and so on, but to swap the short term debt for debt with longer term maturities, and for bondholders to take a haircut. Similiar to the Brady Plan for Latin America in the late 1980's. The bailout of Ireland in reality not a bailout of Ireland, as a bailout of German and British banks that made risky loans to Irish banks and the Irish government. The U.S. government's debt also tilted to short term debt and problems similar to European problems.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
As Ireland Flails, Europe Lurches Across the Rubicon
Wall Street Journal 12/27/2010
Running the euro zone: Pact of uncompetitiveness
Economist 02/12/2011
Wall Street Journal 03/11/2011
Europe Needs to Apportion Pain
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2011
Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance's assessment of the Greece and eurozone debt restructuring of July 2011 and the Greece bailout in 2015
06/30/2011
Grouped Articles
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
Greek Bailout Negotiator Sees Benefits for Banks
New York Times 07/24/2011
Some Bailout Providers May One Day Need Help Too
New York Times 07/24/2011
Plan for Greece Favors Creditors
New York Times 07/25/2011
In Greek Debt Deal, Clear Benefits for the Banks
New York Times 07/25/2011
The Euro Crisis: Big Rescue, Big Doubts
BusinessWeek 07/28/2011
A Brady Plan type solution for the debt crises in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries.
05/18/2010
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic Crisis
New York Times 11/30/2010
Europe's Central Banker Seeks Deeper Fiscal Union
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2011
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
Greek Myths and the Euro Tragedy
Wall Street Journal 05/18/2010
France's banks and losses from expansion in Greece
06/22/2011
French banks BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and other banks expanded in Greece. This is now turning out to be a burden.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2011
Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout From a Greek Default
New York Times 06/22/2011
A Guide to the New Deal in Athens: How a 'Selective Default' Works
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Fear, Rumors Pummel Europe Bank Shares
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
Bans Imposed on Some European Short Selling
Wall Street Journal 08/12/2011
Greece: prospect of default on debt.
12/29/2009
Grouped Articles
Greece Defaults on IMF Loan Despite New Push for Bailout Aid
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2015
Greece, Missing I.M.F. Payment, Is Called Effectively in Default
New York Times 06/30/2015
Unknown 12/29/2009
Unknown 12/29/2009
The Worst May Not Be Over for Europe
New York Times 12/31/2009
New York Times 02/15/2010
Greece, debt and the new austerity budgets 2011-2013
12/10/2009
Grouped Articles
Greek Draft Budget Sees Primary Surplus, Return to Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
Greek Patience With Austerity Nears Its Limit
New York Times 12/29/2014
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
Greece Wanted to Reframe Europe’s Austerity Debate. It Failed.
New York Times 07/01/2015
Mirage of Economic Turnaround Masked New Greek Crisis in the Making
Wall Street Journal 07/05/2015
Greece: Austerity Budget Passed
New York Times 12/25/2009
Richard Portes of the London Business School and other experts on the failures inherent in the EU's June 2011 Greece debt plan
06/22/2011
The EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's plan that would double the cost of servicing Greece's debt will only make matters worse. This means increasing interest rates from 4-6% currently to 10% under 2% Greek economic growth, and makes debt servicing untenable. The adoption of similiar plans in the case of Mexico and Argentina in 2001, ended in failure a year after they were adopted, with private creditors taking losses. Financial markets see this with interest rates on Greek debt at 26%. Contagion might turn out to be worse as the situation deteriorates further.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
What Greece Faces if It Defaults
New York Times 04/29/2015
If Greece Defaults, Imagine Argentina, but Much Worse
New York Times 06/25/2015
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt Looms
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2011
Greece Approves Tough Measures on Economy
New York Times 06/29/2011
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2011
Allan Meltzer's soluton for the financial crisis facing euro currency countries Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece
05/26/2010
Meltzer says a new currency union should be setup for the northern countries France, Germany, and others who commit to financial discipline and fiscally binding arrangements. The euro currency countries such as Italy and Greece should devalue their currency to fix gaps between wages and productivity in their countries. At a later stage these countries could be readmitted to the new currency union under strict fiscally binding arrangements with enforceable sanctions.
Grouped Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
New York Times 09/25/2011
New York Times 05/26/2010
Wall Street Journal 09/14/2011
IMF Chief's Change of Tune on Bank Capital
New York Times 09/14/2011
Austerity in Italy May Not End Its Jobs-for-Votes System
New York Times 09/14/2011
Debt Restructuring for Greece- 2010-2012
04/18/2011
Grouped Articles
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
Expectations Grow for Greek Debt Restructuring
New York Times 04/18/2011
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2011
Investors Doubt Orthodoxy on Greek Debt
Wall Street Journal 05/02/2011
Greek Debt Talks Widen Divisions in the Euro Zone
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2011
Antonis Samaras of Greece's New Democracy Party and the European Union programs for Greece
07/05/2011
Samaras says the tax increases will hurt the Greece economy and the shrinking Greek economy under the current program will lead to the failure of the E.U.'s program for Greece.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
New York Times 06/23/2013
Fractious Greek Government Splits
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Greek Draft Budget Sees Primary Surplus, Return to Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2013
Athens's Love Affair With the Euro Persists
Wall Street Journal 11/04/2013
Next Hurdle for Greece's Economy: Its Own Political Uncertainty
New York Times 10/13/2014
Greece: EU, ECB, and EFSF negotiations for a selective default in July 2011
04/19/2010
Grouped Articles
Weber Sees Greece Needing More Aid
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2010
Greece Defaults on IMF Loan Despite New Push for Bailout Aid
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2015
Euro Zone Moves Toward Greek Deal
Wall Street Journal 07/21/2011
Europe Must Choose Currency or Financial Union
New York Times 07/21/2011
Greece Gets New Bailout as U.S. Nears Brink
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
A Guide to the New Deal in Athens: How a 'Selective Default' Works
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2011
Bloomberg Business Week's Peter Coy calls for debt forgiveness- creditor haircuts for sovereign debt in Europe, and bank writedowns of debt in the U.S. housing market
08/10/2011
Peter Coy of Bloomberg Business Week calls for debt forgiveness in the August 2011 issue of Business Week. Stretching out the debt issues without writedowns says Coy, only leads to austerity programs, stagnant growth and drags the issues out over many years. Better solutions can be found by starting anew with writedowns now and arrangements to make this possible, and returning to growth sooner. What about moral hazard? There is moral hazard in letting the banks bear no cost for reckless lending decisions, they are as likely to repeat this behaviour says Coy, as Greece or the underwater mortgage borrower in the U.S., if they did not have to bear the consequences of their decisions.
Grouped Articles
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
For Europe’s Sake, Keep Greece in the Eurozone
New York Times 07/06/2015
How to Undo the Damage in Greece
New York Times 07/06/2015
Personalities Clashing Over How to Handle New Greek Bailout
New York Times 07/23/2015
BusinessWeek 08/10/2011
Faces of recession battered Greece as new austerity programs are adopted by the government
06/28/2011
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
New York Times 11/03/2013
Greece’s prescription for a health-care crisis - The Washington Post
Washington Post 02/22/2014
Across Athens, Graffiti Worth a Thousand Words of Malaise
New York Times 04/15/2014
Greek Patience With Austerity Nears Its Limit
New York Times 12/29/2014
Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/26/2015
The views of Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, on the ECB's role and the need to address the underlying problems in Greece
04/19/2010
Axel Weber says the European Central Bank should stick to its mandate of setting monetary policy and not get too involved in the crisis in Greece. He says Greece's problems are structural and may take a long time to resolve, as much as 30 years. The European leaders have to decide on solving the underlying problems so that they cut the losses and restart, by offering debt guarantees and using partial creditor haircuts. Simply giving additional loans -which can never be repaid considering the debt of 350 billion euros ($496 billion)- or addding short term liquidity for a 3-5 year solution as European leaders have done so far, won't work.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
German Court to Weigh Bond Buying by E.C.B.
New York Times 06/10/2013
Weber Sees Greece Needing More Aid
Wall Street Journal 04/19/2010
The 'Silent Austerity' in Banking
Wall Street Journal 01/21/2014
Not Quite Checkmate for the Bundesbank
Wall Street Journal 12/22/2014
Germany's Weber Slams Rescue Efforts
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2011
Cochrane's view reflecting that of other experts is that the only way out for Greece is a sovereign default, and starting over like Argentina
09/28/2011
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
Wall Street Journal 09/28/2011
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