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Plan to Leave Euro for Drachma Gains Support in Greece
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Landon Thomas points out an important fact as Greece faces a decision whether to exit the euro and return to the drachma. Removing the interest payments to creditors (French, German and other banks) would result in closing the budget deficit in Greece. When these interest payments on a huge debt load are taken out, Greece would have a budget surplus of 1.5% of GDP compared with a budget deficit of 8% of GDP when interest payments are continued. The experience of Argentina suggests the immediate impact would be painful, but the devaluation in the currency of over 50% from what it is today would return Greece to growth. The alternative under the present plan is to leave Greece burdened with a decade of austerity cuts and a shrinking economy.
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Preparation for Greece's exit from the euro currency and return to the drachma- November 2011-2012
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The first really workable agreement was finally reached in Brussels after a year of sharp differences between the ECB, EU leaders, Greece government and opposition parties, and leaders of France, Germany and other EU countries. Fears of contagion for Italy and Spain and a sense of the dangers to the EU and the Euro currency itself led to the agreement, with the EU governments coming up with the financial support which will be channelled through the European Financial Stability Facility. The debt ceiling crisis in the U.S. may have added to the urgency to reduce nervousness in the markets about a breakdown in EU governance along with that in the U.S.
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The austerity spending cuts and new taxes in Greece- 2011-2012
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A Brady Plan type solution for the debt crises in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries.
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The views of Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, on the ECB's role and the need to address the underlying problems in Greece
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Axel Weber says the European Central Bank should stick to its mandate of setting monetary policy and not get too involved in the crisis in Greece. He says Greece's problems are structural and may take a long time to resolve, as much as 30 years. The European leaders have to decide on solving the underlying problems so that they cut the losses and restart, by offering debt guarantees and using partial creditor haircuts. Simply giving additional loans -which can never be repaid considering the debt of 350 billion euros ($496 billion)- or addding short term liquidity for a 3-5 year solution as European leaders have done so far, won't work.
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The growing support for a return to the drachma in Greece, if the alternative is strict austerity measures
11/01/2011
A return to the drachma as a way to regain competitiveness and return to growth for Greece.
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
Plan to Leave Euro for Drachma Gains Support in Greece
New York Times 11/01/2011
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