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U.S. defense preparedness in Europe and in other continents in 2015-2016- the views of Lt. Gen. "Ben" Hodges and Gen. Raymond Odierno
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
This Is No Time to Cut The U.S. Army
Wall Street Journal 08/14/2015
The View From NATO’s Russian FrontWall Street Journal 02/09/2015
Resilience of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (2) the oil industry and modest growth in 2015
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects Shrink
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Tesla Motors and the problem of meeting target deliveries at a time of low gas prices in 2015-2016
12/05/2014
Linked Articles
Tesla First-Quarter Car Deliveries Rise Above 10,000
Wall Street Journal 04/04/2015
Tesla May Run Slow on Cheap GasWall Street Journal 12/05/2014
Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views
11/20/2014
Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.
Linked Articles
Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance
Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014
With Bad Economic News for Japan, Abe’s Magic Seems to EvaporateNew York Times 11/20/2014
A shift in opinion towards vigorous discussion about austerity for the first time since 2010 when the eurozone crisis began- Valls, Gabriel, Asmussen, Renzi, Draghi, Lagarde join the debate
10/09/2014
Linked Articles
Germany, France Tap Economists for Advice to Avoid ‘Lost Decade’
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in GermanyNew York Times 10/09/2014
Hillary Clinton's uphill battle for the 2016 presidential election
09/28/2014
For the most part Hillary Clinton's public life has been overshadowed by the presidency of her husband Bill Clinton, and by the presidency of Barack Obama. How she defines herself to ordinary voters facing the economic issues at home, and worried about U.S. weakness overseas, will determine to a large extent how she does in the 2016 presidential election.
Linked Articles
A Record of Resilience at Vanguard of American Presidential Politics
New York Times 09/28/2014
Hillary Clinton and Democrats Aim to Buck HistoryWall Street Journal 04/13/2015
China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013
07/09/2014
Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.
Linked Articles
U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2014
Abe's Constitutional Reform Push SlowsWall Street Journal 07/09/2014
Questions about whether justice and accountability were accomplished in the U.S. Justice Department's settlement with Credit Suisse
05/19/2014
A WSJ editorial and a separate piece in the NYT question the assumption that justice and accountability were achieved in the U.S. government's settlement with Credit Suisse. The nagging question- is Attorney General Holder simply burnishing his image after failing to establish accountability and justice following the 2008 global financial crisis, which dealt a serious blow to America's middle class. Collective wrongdoing starts with individual actions, and holding individuals responsible establishes accountability, so that the public is protected from future actions of this nature. Somewhere since the crisis this principle has been lost in the Obama administration. A churn in management for failures is considered healthy for other American companies, and healthy for free enterprise, readers are likely to wonder why this is not so for the banks.
Linked Articles
Credit Suisse Pleads Guilty in Felony Case
New York Times 05/19/2014
Holder Convicts SwitzerlandWall Street Journal 05/21/2014
High level of U.S. part-time workers of about 7 million in 2014 and Federal Reserve chairman Yellen's policy
04/01/2014
Linked Articles
Elevated Level of Part-Time Employment: Post-Recession Norm?
Wall Street Journal 11/13/2014
Yellen Assures Markets on Interest RatesWall Street Journal 04/01/2014
Ukraine's economic crisis during the conflict with Russia- 2014-2016
03/28/2014
Linked Articles
IMF Reaches Deal to Provide up to $18 Billion to Ukraine
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2014
Ukraine’s Hryvnia Plunges After Rate RiseWall Street Journal 02/07/2015
GE (General Electric) low tax rate of 4.2% in 2013, 10.3% in 2014, and the move to a normal tax rate in 2015
03/05/2014
An aggressive policy of tax reduction using GE Capital at GE leads to an astonishingly low tax rate. Shareholders see the uncertainty from GE Capital's volatile earnings and tax strategies with great skepticism. GE shares dropped to $6 during the 2008 global financial crisis because of GE Capital losses, and GE needed government rescue funds. The day CEO Immelt announced the decision to exit the banking business GE shares went up by 11%. GE's tax rate without the banking business will go up to about 20%.
Linked Articles
Price of Selling GE Capital? Tax Breaks
Wall Street Journal 04/14/2015
How corporate America is losing the debate on taxesWashington Post 03/05/2014
Faces of workers quitting work or reducing hours as they qualify for subsidies on health insurance under the Obama Healthcare Law
02/05/2014
Faces of the workers taking subsidies available to lower income workers under the Obama Health Care Law. The Congressional Budget Office projections for 2021 show about the equivalent of 2.3 million workers worth of hours reduced as a result of the healthcare law subsidies giving workers more choice. Many use the time to work on startup business or child care for grandchildren. The jobs freed up and the hours could be taken up by other workers looking for jobs. Gains in childcare would be another result.
Linked Articles
Health Law To Cut Into Labor Force
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2014
They quit their jobs, thanks to the health law - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2014
Resilence of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (1) the decision to let the ruble float in Nov. 2014
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
The challenges facing K-12 education in the U.S. in 2015 with a larger proportion of children from less affluent and poor backgrounds, and two thirds of American children failing math and reading proficiency required levels in 8th grade for 2015
01/17/2015
With a majority of children in California, Texas, and some midwestern states in the U.S. from less affluent or poor backgrounds, and about two thirds of all American students failiing to meet required proficiency in math and reading at 8th grade, the educational challenge of of creating a well qualified work force to build America's future is daunting. Eight years of policy changes in education and private efforts have failed to produce adequate results.
Linked Articles
U.S. student performance slips on national test - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/28/2015
Majority of U.S. public school students are in poverty - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/17/2015
Two party systems and Malaysia's UMNO Party- (2) the future economic prospects of Malaysia under Razak, India under Modi, Indonesia under Widodo
12/08/2014
Najib Razak follows his father Tun Abdul Razak, Mahathir before him, all the way back to Tunku Abdul Rahman, all of the UMNO party, in an uninterrupted control of the United Malay Naional Organization Party which has ruled Malaysia for almost 6 decades. Malaysia has followed the example of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore by keeping the opposition parties weak to maintain control. Both the UMNO and the party of Lee in Singapore face questions about the merits of suppressing the development of two party systems, at a time when government is changing hands to opposition parties in most of the region and improving economic prospects in each country with a change of government- Abe in Japan, Widodo in Indonesia, Modi and Sharif in India and Pakistan, Aquino in the Philippines, Wickremesinghe in Sri Lanka. A economic drift with no clear direction under Singh and Bhutto in India and Pakistan was reversed with the election of Modi and Sharif, the economic drift and deflation under the Kan and Noda governments was reversed in Japan with the election of Abe, and the economic drift in Indonesia is being reversed by the Widodo government. This shows how critical two party systems are to functioning democracies as middle classes develop and voters look for competing views of the future to choose from.
Linked Articles
Fund Controversy Threatens Malaysia’s Leader
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2015
Indonesian President Joko Widodo Pledges to Cut Investment BarriersWall Street Journal 12/08/2014
Transformation of Starbucks in 2015-2016
12/04/2014
Linked Articles
Starbucks, Facing a Saturated Market, Looks to the High End
New York Times 12/04/2014
Starbucks Aims to Double U.S. Food SalesWall Street Journal 12/05/2014
Dangers of credit fueled bubble in China- 2015-2016
10/17/2014
Bob Davis of WSJ sees the end of China's economic miracle in 2015-2016. He is pessimistic about the future. The Economist cites estimates of debt to GDP reaching 250%, and the IMF warns of the dangers of credit fueled growth citing examples of Ireland, Spain, Brazil and Sweden.
Linked Articles
The End of China’s Economic Miracle?
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2014
Chinese debt: The great hole of ChinaEconomist 10/17/2014
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
The West and policies towards Russia- (2) Steinmeier and Merkel on Germany's policy in 2015-2016
08/23/2014
Linked Articles
Merkel Seeks to Defuse Ukraine Crisis as Convoy Returns to Russia
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2014
Frank-Walter Steinmeier Meets With Vladimir PutinNew York Times 11/19/2014
U.S. president Obama's managing of foreign affairs 2008-2016- missed opportunities and failure to act
05/28/2014
Linked Articles
President Obama Misses a Chance on Foreign Affairs
New York Times 05/28/2014
The Unwisdom of Barack ObamaWall Street Journal 09/20/2014
The deteriorating situation for the U.S. long term unemployed and workers seeking fulltime but stuck in part time low paying jobs
04/04/2014
By March 2014 about 6 years after the 2008 financial crisis 7.4 million workers could not find full time work.
Linked Articles
It's Still Bad for the Long Term Unemployed
New York Times 04/04/2014
The Decline of WorkWall Street Journal 04/05/2014
BaFin, German federal financial regulatory authority, and the problems at Deutsche Bank- regulators slow to act on information
03/28/2014
Eyk Henning of the WSJ points out the slow response of regulator BaFin to information about problems at Deutsche Bank that suggest a broken culture in a report on March 28, 2014. This comes 6 years after the WSJ first reported the LIBOR rate manipulation in 2008 leading to British and U.S. regulatory investigations. In April 2015 Deutsche Bank made a legal settlement for LIBOR rate manipulation of $2.5 billion with U.S. and British regulators. As the time when regulatory authority passes to the European Central Bank, and after a period of 7 years since the 2008 WSJ report, BaFin finally sends its report on the broken culture at the bank. A month later the two co-CEO's at the bank resign.
Linked Articles
Germany Blasts Deutsche Bank Executives Over Culture
Wall Street Journal 07/17/2015
German Financial Watchdog Bites BackWall Street Journal 03/28/2014
Ukraine's crisis of poor governance- the new role of civic activists and young people in 2016
03/22/2014
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
EU Faces Difficult Choices Over UkraineWall Street Journal 03/22/2014
Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015
02/21/2014
Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.
Linked Articles
Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted
Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014
India Allocated Coal Fields to Private Companies Illegally, Top Court RulesNew York Times 08/25/2014
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