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IMF Reaches Deal to Provide up to $18 Billion to Ukraine
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The IMF loans of $18 billion approved in March 2014 are conditional on structural reforms in Ukraine which will be painful. This includes a 50% increase in the price of natural gas on May 1, tax increases and spending cuts, flexible exchange rates. About 10% of the state officals will be cut and decreases in pensions for judges. Higher taxes will be placed on alcohol and tobacco products. Prime minister Yatsenuyk, says without the reforms and IMF-EU loans the economy woud contract by 10%, with the package GDP would decline by 3%. Ukraine's 10 year dollar denominated government bonds had a yield of 8.94%. Years of large state subsidies for natural gas, mismanagement and corruption have left Ukraine's finances in bad shape. Ukraine now faces austerity measures similiar to that in other Eastern European countries and Greece, leading to continued political unrest.
The IMF's loan package conditional on structural reforms in Ukraine and a shrinking of GDP in 2014-2015
03/28/2014
The reforms will be painful for Ukraine. This includes a 50% increase in the price of natural gas, tax increases and spending cuts. The IMF will provide $18 billion in loans. The EU will provide $15 billion in grants and loans. The U.S. in comparison has made only a small token contribution of $1 billion in loan guarantees. EU help is made conditional on Ukraine implementing the IMF program. The prime minister of Ukraine says the GDP could drop by 10% without the IMF and EU loans and by 3% under the IMF program. The IMF has also called for audits of Naftogaz, Ukraine's gas company because of allegations of corruption. Ukraine has some of the earlier characteristics of Greece, in that corruption, mismanagement, inept politicians, large neighbor, and the IMF program of austerity measures, are all part of the picture in 2014.
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For Ukraine the crisis has one positive aspect of assistance on better terms and prospect of recovery under guidance from the EU, and possibly the IMF. Before the crisis the EU faced with its own financial difficulties in the eurozone was reluctant to commit large scale assistance. A pro-western government in Kiev dependent on the EU, makes it easier for the EU to design the package so that the assistance works, and necessary conditions are provided by the Ukrainian government. Previous administrations in Kiev were mired in corruption, mismanagement of the economy, and Russian meddling or pressure, which the new government has the chance to avoid this time. Long term this could also offer the prospect of Ukraine- without the Russian speaking Crimea- joining the European Union.
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