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India's foreign relations in 2018 after the Wuhan Summit - a close relationship with the U.S. balanced by good relations with China and Russia
06/05/2018
Wuhan Summit
Linked Articles
Chinese, Indian Leaders Seek Harmony After a Fractious Year
WSJ 04/26/2018
Why India avoids alliancesThe Economist 06/02/2018
A Washington Post report on the election meddling by Russia in 2016
12/14/2017
Linked Articles
Opinion | This new report confirms that Trump’s megalomania threatens our democracy
Washington Post 12/14/2017
How Trump’s skepticism of U.S. intelligence on Russia left an election threat uncheckedWashington Post 12/14/2017
The moderating influence of business executives Gary Cohn, Wilbur Ross and Muilenburg on president Trump- change in policy on NAFTA, Mexico, China and Export Import Bank
04/14/2017
Business executives help moderate the campaign positions taken by Donald Trump during the first 100 days of his presidency, putting him closer to the traditional view on China, Mexico, NATO and Russia.
Linked Articles
Donald Trump’s Recent Policy Reversals Reflect Business Influence
WSJ 04/14/2017
Within Trump’s inner circle, a moderate voice captures the president’s earWashington Post 04/14/2017
How U.S. economic growth and interest rates can play out in ways contrary to what is expected for 2017-2019
12/14/2016
Linked Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the WayThe New York Times 12/13/2016
Russia's hacking and the U.S. Presidential electon of 2016
12/11/2016
Linked Articles
Republicans ready to launch wide-ranging probe of Russia, despite Trump’s stance
Washington Post 12/09/2016
Why the US fears Russia is hacking its presidential election - BBC NewsBBC News 10/11/2016
The pause in the U.S. economy with the May 2016 U.S. jobs report showing 38,000 jobs added
06/06/2016
Krugman discusses the U.S. May 2016 jobs report from the Labor Department. He says it will be harder to come up with a response to the political uncertainty in an election year, especially now that rates are near zero.
Linked Articles
Sharp Fall in U.S. Hiring Saps Chance of Fed Rate Increase in June
The New York Times 06/03/2016
A Pause That DistressesThe New York Times 06/06/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Ford Motor's higher profits from larger vehicles in the U.S. and China in 2015- the redesigned F-150 pickup, SUV's, with higher fuel efficiency, lower gas prices and lower interest rates
07/29/2015
Linked Articles
GM, Ford, Flourish Out of the Limelight
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Ford Bets on Fancy PickupsWall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
The puzzle of U.S. job gains in 2014-2015 with tepid wage gains- a result of labor market slack not reflected in 5.5% unemployment rate, low productivity, low investment
03/07/2015
Linked Articles
Sluggish Productivity Hampers Wage Gains
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Brisk Jobs Growth Puts Focus on FedWall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, and Russia's response to the collapse in oil prices that helped avoid effects on the economy
02/09/2015
Exceptional performance by an exceptional economy minister and banker. Elvira Nabiullina's humility, drive and policies help shape Russia's careful management of the collapse in oil prices.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
Russia and global financial markets in 2014-2015- a disconnect between an economy connected to the global economy and separation from a postwar order of international cooperation within a global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Stopping Putin Without Firing a Shot
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2015
From Russia With No LoveWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Stable oil prices and low volatility in 2018- the result of U.S. shale oil supply stream and OPEC/Russia cuts
06/01/2018
This low volatility in oil prices is good for both producers and consumers, and shale oil from U.S. is a big part of this.
Linked Articles
How OPEC and Shale Have Squeezed Out Volatility in the Oil Market
WSJ 06/01/2018
The New Tech That Terrifies OPECWSJ 06/01/2018
China's credit ratings downgrade for rising debt in 2017 and the echoes of Japan in the 1980's
05/25/2017
Linked Articles
Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989
WSJ 05/24/2017
In Downgraded China, Echoes of Japan’s Boom and BustWSJ 05/24/2017
Rex Tillerson of ExxonMobil as Secretary of State and U.S. relations with Russia
12/15/2016
Linked Articles
Rex Tillerson’s Company, Exxon, Has Billions at Stake Over Sanctions on Russia
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Under Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil Forged Its Own Path AbroadThe New York Times 12/13/2016
Tensions between Germany and Russia in 2016-2017
12/11/2016
Linked Articles
Vladimir Putin: For Trump and Against Merkel | ZEIT ONLINE
ZEIT ONLINE 08/13/2016
Germany's Wolfgang Schäuble: Prepared to Raise Pressure on RussiaWall Street Journal 05/24/2014
Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families
08/10/2016
The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/19/2012
Paul Ryan beats outsider 'mini-Donald Trump' challenger in Wisconsin primaryThe Guardian 08/10/2016
The standoff between Saudi Arabia and Russia/ Iran that created the prospect of low oil prices for the long term - (1) Saudis and Russian resilience in the face of low oil prices
01/25/2016
Linked Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects ShrinkWall Street Journal 01/25/2016
The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates
08/12/2015
China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.
Linked Articles
China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/12/2015
China’s Devaluation GambitWall Street Journal 08/12/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
How the NASDAQ in 2015 has changed since 2000, and the change in the interest rate environment and inflation- critical factors in the new investment environment of 2015
04/24/2015
Linked Articles
Why This Old Bull Market May Not Be Ready to Die
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2015
The New Nasdaq Record, Set By a New NasdaqWall Street Journal 04/24/2015
The 39% drop in Russia's auto sales in 2015 with the economic crisis- withdrawal of GM and other manufacturers
02/10/2015
Linked Articles
GM to Close Russian Assembly Plant
Wall Street Journal 03/19/2015
Russian Car Sales Skid Lower Amid Economic GloomWall Street Journal 02/10/2015
The cost of the crisis to Russia exceeds $200 billion- a story of wasted opportunities to diversify away from oil and gas and integrate fully into the competitive global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Russia Lifts Crisis Cost EstimateWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Declining inflation and interest rate cuts in India in 2015
01/14/2015
Linked Articles
India’s Inflation Fight Pays Early Dividend
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2015
Suddenly, India Cuts Interest RatesNew York Times 01/14/2015
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