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IMF warning for corporate debt in emerging markets increasing from $4 trillion in 2004 to $18 trillion in 2014

09/29/2015

The IMF singles out China and Turkey for large increases in corporate debt since 2007. Concentrated holdings by American mutual funds of emerging market debt securities is seen by the IMF in 2015 as creating potential systemic instability.

Grouped Articles

I.M.F. Cautions on Concentrated Positions in U.S. Mutual Funds

New York Times 09/29/2015

Emerging-Market Debt: How Big a Threat Is It?

Wall Street Journal 02/16/2016

The caution in raising rates of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2015 and memories of the emerging market crisis in 1997

09/17/2015

In 1997 Federal Reserve rate increases worsened the situation in the fragile Mexican economy, with Mexico needing a large bank bailout. Contagion to other countries was also a large problem at the time. Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Larry Summers, cite the situation facing emerging markets with the sharp fall in commodity prices and the decline in the value of the currencies, particularly Brazil, Indonesia and Russia, countries dependent on commodity exports, creating risks in the global economy that the Fed could not ignore. The debt crisis in China and slowing economy, with missteps by the government in handling the stock market decline, happened in August-September 2015, creating added uncertainty- making Sept 15, 2015, too soon for the Fed to risk even a modest 0.25% increase in rates.

Grouped Articles

Watching the Fed, and Remembering the Tequila Crisis

New York Times 09/18/2015

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

New York Times 09/17/2015

Gloom on Brazil Finances Deepens

Wall Street Journal 12/17/2015

Why China’s Market Fell So Much

Wall Street Journal 01/05/2016

Why China’s Market Illness Has Gotten More Contagious

Wall Street Journal 01/12/2016

A January Pause, but Fed Affirms Plan for Gradual Rate Increases

New York Times 01/27/2016

Kenneth Rogoff on the financial crisis in China with debt exceeding 270% of GDP, shadow banking, real estate bubble and unsustainable local government finances

08/24/2015

Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, is an expert on financial and debt crises, with the most extensive quantitative study of debt crises of 66 countries with Carmen Reinhart. The research is published in the book, "This Time Is Different." He discusses the debt crisis in China with the NYT's Andrew Ross Sorkin, saying China is not immune to the problems from an alarming buildup of debt. He says the reason China was seen as impervious to debt problems is because of the high savings rate of 30%, the millions of migrants moving to cities for manufacturing work, and government control of markets. Actually he sees China as a really good example of "This Time Is Different," the notion that somehow it can't happen here. The result is along delay before an event and the sudden speed of the implosion once it hits. The effects Rogoff sees are the risks to commodity producing countries such as Russia, Brazil, and other countries dependent on exports. He says China's large foreign exchange reserves offers a way for it to manage the debt crisis.

Grouped Articles

A Warning on China Seems Prescient

New York Times 08/24/2015

China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns

The Telegraph 09/19/2016

Will Trump herald a US economic boom?

The Guardian 12/07/2016

China’s Economy Grows 6.9%, but Warning Signs Persist

The New York Times 04/17/2017

Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989

WSJ 05/24/2017

In Downgraded China, Echoes of Japan’s Boom and Bust

WSJ 05/24/2017

Anglo American 53,000 job cuts in 2015 over three years

07/25/2015

Anglos American responds to declining commodity prices and the slowdown in China with deep cuts to its 151,000 workforce.

Grouped Articles

Mining Companies Slash Jobs as Commodities Prices Slide

Wall Street Journal 07/25/2015

Commodities Rout Leaves Anglo American Needing Deals

Wall Street Journal 07/25/2015

Anglo American to Slash Assets, Cut 85,000 Jobs

Wall Street Journal 12/09/2015

Anglo American’s Overhaul: Dire Straits in Mining

Wall Street Journal 12/09/2015

Immigrants to the U.S. from Nigeria

06/30/2015

Grouped Articles

A Legal Immigrant’s American Dream

Wall Street Journal 06/30/2015

Platinum supplies, prices and South African mines

06/23/2015

Grouped Articles

Platinum Slammed by Supplies, Dollar

Wall Street Journal 06/23/2015

OPEC's loss of pricing power in 2015

06/01/2015

Saudi Arabia acting as a swing producer adjusted oil production to keep prices from falling in the period before 2015. Following the sharp drop in oil prices to below $50 in early 2015, prices steadied to about $65 for Brent crude in June 2015. The Saudi oil minister Naimi says he takes the long view on oil prices, and decides to continue Saudi production at earlier levels in June 2015. In a period of declining oil prices the Saudis and OPEC continue to produce oil at the same levels as before.

Grouped Articles

OPEC’s Pricing Leverage Is Weakening

Wall Street Journal 06/01/2015

OPEC’s Problem: There Is No Minister of Shale

Wall Street Journal 06/03/2015

OPEC Keeps Output Unchanged

Wall Street Journal 06/05/2015

OPEC, Keeping Quotas Intact, Adjusts to Oil’s New Normal

New York Times 06/05/2015

As Saudis Keep Pumping, Thirst for Domestic Oil Swells

Wall Street Journal 07/04/2015

U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel

Wall Street Journal 08/23/2015


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