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What’s so important about the oil meeting in Doha - The Washington Post
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The OPEC meeting in Qatar in April 2016 to stabilize oil prices with a freeze in production is not likely to affect supply and demand. Saudis and Russia are producing all out, and Iran plans to increase its production, making it difficult to reach an agreement. The International Energy Agency, IEA, predicts demand will rise by the end of 2016 from 94.8 million barrels a day to 95.9 million barrels a day. Production is at 96.4 million barrels a day, and this is expected to lead to narrowing the gap between supply and demand. Experts say cars are becoming more fuel effficient, and electric car technology is becoming commercially viable, leading to a lack of growth in demand in developed and middle income countries. This may have to be factored in for the intermediate and long run for demand growth.
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Saudi Arabia acting as a swing producer adjusted oil production to keep prices from falling in the period before 2015. Following the sharp drop in oil prices to below $50 in early 2015, prices steadied to about $65 for Brent crude in June 2015. The Saudi oil minister Naimi says he takes the long view on oil prices, and decides to continue Saudi production at earlier levels in June 2015. In a period of declining oil prices the Saudis and OPEC continue to produce oil at the same levels as before.
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With Iran expected to add its production to supplies following lifting of sanctions in 2016, the Saudis would lose market share if they cut production. The Saudis are also on opposite sides with Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, in the Middle East conflict. Russia is also on the opposite side of this conflict. As a result the Saudis are likely to stick to policy of full production with no cutbacks for the long term. When the Saudis made the policy decision at OPEC meetings in 2014 to not cut back on production as prices declined, it may have been done with the idea of revising policy later on. In 2016 with added Iranian production, this flexibility is diminished. Russia's bombing campaign in Syria, and its ability to withstand sanctions and low oil prices because of a declining ruble, and the cutoff in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, have put all sides in an economic war of attrition. The Saudis with $630 billion in reserves also see the ability to withstand low oil prices for the long term. Low oil prices help boost economies in the U.S, European Union, Japan, India, China, Turkey, and other countries as the global economy slows down in 2016.
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What’s so important about the oil meeting in Doha - The Washington Post
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