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Fall in Oil Prices Threatens Africa’s Economic Growth
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Oil importing countries in East Africa will benefit from lower oil import bills. Measured as a percentage of GDP the oil imports will go down from 6.3% to 3.7% of GDP for Tanzania, from 6.2% to 3.7% for Mozambique, from 6.0% to 3.6% for Kenya and from 4.8% to 2.8% for South Africa. For the oil exporting countries for revenue decline as a percentage of GDP, Ghana goes from 2.7% to 1.6%, Nigeria from 15.7% to 9.3%, and Angola from 56% to 33%. About 80% of Nigeria's budget comes from oil revenues which will result in spending cuts. About 14% of GDP in Nigeria is dependent on the oil sector, because of the growth in retail and telecommunications. Nigeria's finance minister estimates the decline in GDP growth by 1% to 5.3% for 2015. Benefits from lower oil prices are offset by decline in the price of iron ore and other commodity exports for South Africa, and from the decline in the South African currency, the Rand. Drop in the value of iron ore exports affects other parts of West Africa such as Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Projects for large investments by large oil companies in Uganda and Angola may be delayed as oil prices decline.
Aliko Dangote and Nigeria's new proposed private oil refinery for 2015-2016
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After investing in a monopoly control of the cement market in Nigeria, Dangote proposes to put up a new oil refinery to meet Nigeria's surging demand for refined oil. Investing in Africa involves an astute knowledge of local politics, banking connections, in addition to business ability.
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The effects of lower oil prices in 2015 - (4) the effect on African countries
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Oil exporting countries in West Africa such as Nigeria, Ghana and Angola lose oil revenues, oil importing countries in East Africa such as Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa benefit with lower oil import bills.
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Accounting for oil revenues in Nigeria
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Nigeria's Oil Revenue Faces an Accounting
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Nigeria Is a Case Study in the Curse of Oil
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The failure of social spending supported by oil to improve economic conditions and the standard of living- the case of Venezuela and Iran
06/09/2014
A critical factor in this situation is the failure to integrate into the world economy. Under these conditions for Iran sanctions for a nuclear program and support for Syria's regime creates a sort of "pariah" status, and for Venezuela the rhetoric and state control have led to a similar situation. Because technological inputs and foreign capital and knowhow are critical for development, policies of this kind can do long term damage to the economy and reduce standards of living. Both countries have failed to invest in basic refining capacity. At the other side is Nigeria which has also failed to invest in refining capacity. In Nigeria rampant corruption eats away at the core. All three countries are oil producing countries with crumbling infrastructure and failure of the state to provide the right direction to stimulate growth.
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Decline in Nigeria's currency, the Naira, as oil prices drop in 2014-2015
12/03/2014
A 10% drop in Nigeria's currency by Dec. 2014. Foreign exchange reserves drop to $2 billion in Dec. 2014 putting Nigeria in a precarious financial situation.
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The oil industry in Ghana
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Bid for Ghana Oil Field Rebuffed
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The combination effect of lower oil prices, lower commodity prices, and depreciating currencies on Africa- on S. Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, Angola, Ghana, aand other countries
12/12/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2015
Fall in Oil Prices Threatens Africa’s Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
The effects of lower oil prices to $60 in 2015- (1) the effect on Nigeria
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Linked Articles
Fall in Oil Prices Threatens Africa’s Economic Growth
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
Nigeria’s Tumbling Currency a Victim of Falling Oil Prices
Wall Street Journal 12/03/2014
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