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China's Li Lays Out the Pledges
Keywords:
The appointments to key economic positions in the Jinping-Keqiang administration in 2013 reflect continuity and importance given to experience. Zhou Xiaochuan continues as head of the central bank PBOC, to keep an experienced person in the the event of a financial crisis. Lou Jiwei, chairman of the sovereign wealth fund, is now the new finance minister. Xu Shaoshi, minister of land and resources, is the new head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the economic planning agency. Xiao Gang, chairman of the Bank of China, one of four state owned banks, will be the new head of the securities regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission. Zhang Gaoli, a member of the Political Standing Committee of the Communist party, and Wang Yang, party chief of southern Guangdong province, also join the economic team. Li Keqiang, the new prime minister emphasized the agenda for the next decade telling a press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk. We need to pursue market oriented reforms." This means giving the private sector and consumers a signficant role in the Chinese economy.
The Jinping-Keqiang administration and key appointments for the economy in 2013- the PBOC and Finance ministry
03/17/2013
Key appointments under the Jinping-Keqiang administration to head the central bank PBOC, the sovereign wealth fund, finance ministry, and the Development Reform Commission DRC planning agency in 2013.
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China's difficult political-economic choices in the post 2010 period.
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The difficult choices in the new environment- transition to a new leadership, how to change the export model without serious disruptions, how to deal with western demands for balanced global growth, dealing with the inequality and corruption generated in the kind of growth China experienced (by the fiat of the State), opening up freedom of expression to curb corruption and to provide representation for hitherto blocked out voices, transition to freedom of expression and democratic processes without serious disruption to thegrowth needed for employment and improvements in the standard of living across all parts of society and regions, reducing or channelling to constructive ends prevailing nationalistic, anti-western or anti-Japanese sentiment. The new leadership of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang is expected to be more outward looking than than of Hu Jintao and Wen Biao and comes at atime when China needs to make some difficult choices about future direction.
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Tom Orlik on wealth distribution in China and why increasing consumer spending would require higher incomes for the lower middle class and rural households
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Orlik cites a study by a Chinese university which shows 10% of the households has over 80% of the wealth, and over 50% of the households have little or no savings. This suggests that there is not much room to increase consumer spending on education, healthcare, and consumer goods for these households as incomes are too low. This may account for the insecurity felt by a large majority of households about the future. It also shows that rebalancing the global economy would require rebalancing within China, reducing inequality and improving incomes for the middle class to increase consumer spending.
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The World Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC) Report "China: 2030"
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China's future and the experience of Japan and Mexico
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China devotes 3% of GDP to education compared to 5% in developed countries. The underinvestment in education and human capital can lead to stagnation in per capita incomes. This happened in Mexico. The inability to deal with bad loans in the banking system can lead to slowing economic growth. This happened in Japan. The bulldozing of schools of migrant workers reflects a failure to address balanced growth and a breakdown in assigning the right priorities.
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Martin Feldstein on China's efforts to control inflation, rising real estate prices, and shift its economy away from export led growth in 2011-2013
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Feldstein says China has the economic problems of inflation, the effects of the large stimulus after the 2008 global financial crisis, and overdependence on exports, under control. The new five year plan gradually shifts the economy towards greater reliance on services and a shift away from export led growth. The smaller stimulus of 2012 is being guided to necessary infrastructure such as power development and towards low income housing. China has still to tackle problems with an aging population and its one-child policy, inequality and corruption in government. These will be challenges facing the new government.
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The Australian economy in 2010-2014
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Higher risks as Australia is dangerously overdependent on China for economic growth.
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Rudd Returns for Australian Act 2
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Compelling needs in China for getting the involvement and voices of Chinese society, even as the Chinese Communist party controls freedom of expression. This would help control corruption which is a threat to the party's influence and leadership. Efforts to setup democratic processes at an early stage.
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An interview with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong - The Washington Post
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The Jinping-Keqiang administration in China and early signals of a shift in emphasis to consumers
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Linked Articles
China's Li Lays Out the Pledges
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2013
China Broadcaster Shows Up Apple, VW
Wall Street Journal 03/15/2013
China's new Jinping-Keqiang administration in 2013 emphasizes continuity and experience in economic and foreign affairs
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Linked Articles
China's Li Lays Out the Pledges
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2013
China Names Its New Foreign Policy Team
New York Times 03/16/2013
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