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Quarterly Growth Gives China Boost
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Tags: Current Focus, United States, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Retail, Automobiles, Consumer, Pharmaceutical, Healthcare, Oil & Gas, Metals / Mining, Aerospace / Defense, Telecom, Computers, Capital Markets, China, Japan, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Russia, Australia, Managing Business,
China's GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2012 was 7.9% over prior year, increasing from 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth for 2012 was 7.8%, down from 9.3% in 2011. Growth is stabilizing at 8% which shows China is managing the economy, slowing the growth rate with a smaller stimulus planned in 2013, and working on sustainable growth for the longer term. This is a significant positive as a new leadership takes over in China and sets priorities for stable growth, and improvements in housing and health care.
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Stiglitz and Sen's report point to need for looking at multiple indicators of growth, including education, health care and environment.
12/30/2005
Be skeptical of touting GDP growth numbers. China which has done this has learnt from this experience as it shifts to trying to assess the costs of environmental degradation in headlong industrialization. The U.S. and the shift to bigger houses and bigger cars, which later fed a collapse of housing and the auto industry show a different angle of this obsession with GDP numbers that can work constructively or destructively if not understood and managed properly. Air quality and pollution is a major problem in China and affects the quality of life.
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Hazards and prospects.
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China devotes 3% of GDP to education compared to 5% in developed countries. The underinvestment in education and human capital can lead to stagnation in per capita incomes. This happened in Mexico. The inability to deal with bad loans in the banking system can lead to slowing economic growth. This happened in Japan. The bulldozing of schools of migrant workers reflects a failure to address balanced growth and a breakdown in assigning the right priorities.
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Roubini on China, currency issues, and domestic consumption in China.
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By letting the yuan China can shift the benefits to households, who will have more purchasing power, and reverse the shift that has taken place in the last 10 years, with domestic consumption making up about 36% of GDP- down by about 10 points from ten years earlier. State owned companies gained at the expense of households, as did infrastructure spending, but it is leading to misallocation of investments and hurting households. As a result China will hit a growth wall in the next 2-3 years, says Roubini.
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