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Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF
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Stress test performed by the consulting firms of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger used data as of Dec 31, 2011, and a scenario of a 6.5% decline in GDP and a 26.4% fall in housing prices by 2014. An international panel of experts from the Bank of Spain, the Spanish government, the ECB, the IMF, the European Banking Authority and the EC was formed to oversee the consultancies report. A separate more detailed audit of 14 individual banks will be made by Deloitte Touche, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG International with results by the end of July. The four banks that need capital injections are Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, NovaCaixaGalicia and Banco de Valencia. The consultancies estimate was for 51-62 billion euros needed according to Oliver Wyman, and 51.8 billion euros needed according to Roland Berger, for recapitalization of Spanish banks by 2014. The issue now is about any remaining questions about additional losses, and whether rescue funds from the EU fund the EFSF should go directly to the banks as favored by the IMF and the government of Spain. This is because of the stress on yields of Spain's 10 year bonds with rescue money going to the Spanish government at the insistence of German chancellor Merkel.
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EU finance ministers persuaded Spain to borrow from the EFSF and place the money in a special fund intended to recapitalize its banks. The IMF will provide some oversight over the banks but no conditions or oversight will be imposed on Spain only on its banking system as a compromise. Problems in the banking system arise from a housing bubble in Spain and failing cajas savings banks. Spain has already committed to adhering to fiscal deficit targets on a longer term basis with the EU. This makes it a rescue of the banks more than a bailout of the kind deisgned for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
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The troubled banks in Spain are the Caixa banks in Catulunya and in Galicia, and the Bank of Valencia, and Bankia bank. The IMF favors direct aid, and sees the approach of sending rescue aid to Spain as not working to restore confidence in 2012.
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Reports by consulting firms Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger, and a separate report by audit firms looking into the books of Spanish banks
03/11/2011
Consulting firms estimated 62 billion euros will be needed to recapitalize Spain's banks. This is similiar to figures of Fitch Ratings and the IMF. The consulting firms of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger used informaton provided by the Bank of Spain and did not look directly into the books of individual banks because of time constraints. The Spanish government is doing a separate detailed audit using audit firms which will examine the books of the 14 largest banks and report by the end of July. Disagreement between Mr. Alumnia, Spain's representative at the EC and the Spanish government about whether some banks should be closed.
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Short term steps Germany agreed to when pushed hard by Italy, Spain and France, include the critical actions to let the European rescue funds to directly buy Italian and Spanish bonds on private markets to drive down bond yields, and provide direct aid to Italian and Spanish banks. The two steps were vital to restore market confidence and necessary if the European project was to be saved. The marathon negotiation stetched for 14 hours with brinksmanship, and were described by prime minister Monti of Italy as "hard and tense" but worth it.
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Linked Articles
Spanish Aid Plan Is Flawed, Says IMF
Wall Street Journal 06/22/2012
For Spain, Accusations of Lagging on Reforms
New York Times 06/20/2012
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