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Portugalâs Debt Efforts May Be a Warning for Greece
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Portugal's economy is shrinking. Austerity measures taken in exchange for 78 billion euros from the IMF and the EU under a May, 2011 agreement have reduced the prospects of growth. The ratio of debt to GDP was 107% in May 2011. It is expected to reach 118% in 2013 because the economy is shrinking- even though Portugal will have achieved its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Portugal's finance minister, Vitor Gaspar, a former ECB research director, has reduced the budget deficit by one third by cutting spending, pensions, wages and increasing taxes. GDP fell by 1.5% in 2011 and is expected to decline by 3% in 2012. Even the IMF says in its recent economic review that if growth is lacking the debt of Portugal "would not be sustainable." David Bencek, analyst at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, says that the Portuguese economy lacks the structure needed to grow, and therefore has debt that is unsustainable. Portugal lacks a manufacturing base and exports, and was just emerging from decades of neglect by military rulers of education and other essential parts of a modern economy when it joined the EU.
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New York Times 09/25/2011
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Portugal is taking vigorous steps without social unrest, including spending cuts that will stabilize the deficit, labor reform, and increasing exports through trading links to Africa and Latin America. Portugal needs to borrow about 10 billion euros in 2012 and the ratings downgrade has hurt Portugal by raising rates on new borrowing to about 20%. The economy is expected to shrink by 3% in 2012.
Grouped Articles
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Greece and Portugal are in much riskier shape than Argentina was when it defaulted in 2001, argues Simon Johnson.
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The terms of the loan deal and the problems negotiators faced in coming up with a deal that will give Portugal the breathing space to it needs. The economy is expected to contract 2% in 2011, and 2% in 2012. As a result the defict as a percentage of GDP target of 3% was set for the third year in the three year program, instead of earlier as originally planned. The IMF loan interest rate was set at 3.25% for the first 2 years. Portugal's weakness in competitiveness and in its educational system means Portugal badly needs this breathing space.
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Grouped Articles
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