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Forecast Clouds Debt-Cut Outlook
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The most recent U.S Congressional Budget Office projections make assumptions of an higher U.S. unemployment rate for the next 10 years. This worsens the outlook for the U.S. deficit. The CBO projections assume unemployment of 8.5% by the end of 2012, remaining over 8% till 2014. The deficit for fiscal 2012 is projected to be $973 billion, or 6.2% of GDP. This is down from $1.3 trillion, or 8.5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2011, after spending cuts. Over the coming ten years CBO projects cumulative deficits of $8.5 trillion and U.S. debt at 82% of GDP in 2021, under a scenario where Congress renews the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts, and is unable to reduce fees paid to doctors under Medicare. The gap between revenue and spending is widening- revenues are at 15.3% of GDP in 2011 and spending is 23.8% of GDP.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and estimates of the U.S. Budget Deficit
01/26/2011
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The CBO projection was made in 2001 and showed a surplus of $2.3 trillion for 2011. Two wars, higher defense spending added about $2 trillion. The Stimulus about $700 billion. Figures from the analysis done by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative using CBO numbers.
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Forecast Clouds Debt-Cut Outlook
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Linked Articles
Deficit Is Again Set to Top $1 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 02/01/2012
Forecast Clouds Debt-Cut Outlook
Wall Street Journal 08/25/2011
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