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This Time, Maybe the U.S. Is Japan
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Bond investors are looking to Japan for clues after the U.S. credit downgrade and two years of zero interest rates. William O'Donnell, chief Treasurys strategist at RBS Securities sees similiarities with what happened in Japan- short term rates near zero and long term rates headed down. strategists see the U.S. 10 year Treasury note dropping to less than 2%, from 2.23% today. Japan's 10 year Treasury note yields 1.05%. O'Donnell's forecast is for 10 year rates to be at 1.70% by mid-2012.
Comparisons of the U.S. Economy with Japan, considering the Federal Reserve's easy money policy and little lending by banks.
10/15/2009
Is the US economy already in a liquidity trap with exploding monetary growth and little consumer lending asks Christopher Wood. Views of other experts on the subject.
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Target Is 'Flexible,' Says Japan Bank Chief
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Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary Tale
New York Times 06/09/2013
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
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Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
Wall Street Journal 10/27/2009
Economist 10/15/2009
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Errors made- US and Japanese economy comparisons for a lost decade.
02/13/2009
Japan's economy suffered badly after a flood of credit and bad loans, resulting in deflation and a lost decade. The comparison with what the US faces now.
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Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary Tale
New York Times 06/09/2013
Japanese Prices Rise, Signaling Rebound
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In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America
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In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America
New York Times 02/13/2009
New York Times 10/30/2014
Abe: U.S., Japan Close to TPP Trade Deal
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Low interest rates and Fed policy in 2010-2012
10/02/2010
Grouped Articles
New York Times 10/16/2014
Enough With the Low Interest Rates!
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2010
Ben S. Bernanke - What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability
Washington Post 11/04/2010
Lawrence Lindsey on how Bernanke's Fed has boxed itself in with no choice but to keep interest rates low and no clear exit strategy
01/04/2010
Economist Lindsey says Fed chairman Bernanke has to keep interest rates low for the U.S. government to be able to cope with the increase in borrowing costs that normal interest rates would bring. The normalized interest rate - the rate at which the U.S. government was able to borrow for the last three decades- is about 5.7%. At that rate the U.S. government would add $800 billion to borrowing costs for 2021, says Lindsey. The U.S. now borrows at about 2.5%
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Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Wanted: A Boring Leader for the Fed
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Reflections by America’s Buddha of Banking
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Wall Street Journal 06/15/2011
Fed Darkens Its Outlook but Plans No Changes
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The Deficit Is Worse Than We Think
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Allan Meltzer's action plan for the economy includes reversing the excessive monetary easing starting now in October 2009 so that it can be done gradually and not hurt the economy through sudden contraction later on.
10/01/2009
Allan Melzer was co-founder an co-chairman of the Shadow Open Market Committee for over two decades, advisor to Presidents Kennedy and Reagan, and one of the foremost experts on the Federal Reserve System. He calls for the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt an early exit strategy from loose monetary policies.
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Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
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Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2009
Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
Wall Street Journal 10/27/2009
Economist 10/15/2009
Jobs Now, Deficit Reduction Later
BusinessWeek 10/29/2009
Liquidity Trap in Japan and the U.S.
03/17/2008
With the demand curve for money horizontal further increases in the money supply do little to lower interest rates, or as in the current situation where the interest rates in the US are virtually at zero so that further increases in the money supply do little to stimulate the economy. As unemployment is growing and the financial sector weak, Bernanke and the Fed see other ways in which quantitative easing helps a recovery. Here Chritopher Woods compares today's situation in America to that of postbubble Japan. He says America is already in a liquidity trap. And the regulatory forbearance to cleanup the banking mess is similiar to that in postbubble Japan when it took the government years to get up the will and strength to straighten out the mess including breaking up the banks that are too big to fail.
Grouped Articles
Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
Wall Street Journal 10/27/2009
Economist 10/15/2009
Economist 12/30/2009
Fed’s Bullard Raises Policy Concerns
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Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
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Ben S. Bernanke - What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability
Washington Post 11/04/2010
Is this shaping up to be a lost decade for the U.S. economy?
10/18/2009
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Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary Tale
New York Times 06/09/2013
Sluggish Economic Recovery Proves Resilient
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2014
New York Times 10/30/2014
Eighty Years After the Great Crash -- 'Is It the '30s Again?'
Wall Street Journal 10/18/2009
U.S. Hears Echo of Japanâs Woes
New York Times 10/29/2010
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2011
U.S. Federal Reserve's policy and actions in 2010-2013
08/27/2010
Grouped Articles
Fed Officials Try to Set the Market at Ease
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed Moves
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013
In Surprise, Fed Decides to Maintain Pace of Stimulus
New York Times 09/18/2013
Economists See Nominee as Slightly More Dovish Bernanke
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2013
Yellenâs Path From Liberal Theorist to Fed Voice for Jobs
New York Times 10/09/2013
The Yellen Fed? Precise and Predictable
New York Times 10/09/2013
Allan Meltzer's program for the economy and advice to the Fed and policymakers in 2011-2012
08/11/2011
Allan Meltzer on the dangers of a loose monetary policy and the need for an early exit strategy.
Grouped Articles
Once Again, the Fed Shies Away From the Exit Door
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2013
Bhidé and Phelps: Central Banking Needs Rethinking
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2013
The Folly of Economic Short-Termism
Wall Street Journal 08/11/2011
This Time, Maybe the U.S. Is Japan
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2011
Kansas City Fed President Defies Conventional Wisdom
New York Times 08/13/2011
From World War II, Economic Lessons for Today
New York Times 08/13/2011
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