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Fed’s Bullard Raises Policy Concerns

Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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The St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, argues in a paper, that the keeping of target interest rates near zero as promised by Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve, sets up a situation similiar to Japan of a "deflation trap." He said that core annual inflation of only 0.9% in May 2010 suggests that there is a risk that the nominal inerest rate and inflation end up being at an unintended steady state which is dangerously low. He also said that the market's interpretation of the Fed's extended period of low interests language had a perverse effect of stretching out the period before things normalize. He suggests as an appropriate step "quantitative easing"- a policy of buying monetary debt with longer dates. But for this to be effective, the action has to be credible.

Deflation threat in the U.S. in 2010.

05/27/2010

Negligible growth in incomes and the lowest increase in the consumer price index since 1962, with the eurozone crisis overhang, pose threat of deflation.

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With the demand curve for money horizontal further increases in the money supply do little to lower interest rates, or as in the current situation where the interest rates in the US are virtually at zero so that further increases in the money supply do little to stimulate the economy. As unemployment is growing and the financial sector weak, Bernanke and the Fed see other ways in which quantitative easing helps a recovery. Here Chritopher Woods compares today's situation in America to that of postbubble Japan. He says America is already in a liquidity trap. And the regulatory forbearance to cleanup the banking mess is similiar to that in postbubble Japan when it took the government years to get up the will and strength to straighten out the mess including breaking up the banks that are too big to fail.

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Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?

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Allan Meltzer's action plan for the economy includes reversing the excessive monetary easing starting now in October 2009 so that it can be done gradually and not hurt the economy through sudden contraction later on.

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Allan Melzer was co-founder an co-chairman of the Shadow Open Market Committee for over two decades, advisor to Presidents Kennedy and Reagan, and one of the foremost experts on the Federal Reserve System. He calls for the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt an early exit strategy from loose monetary policies.

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QE is likely to continue as the central banks of the USA and U.K. have no easy exit strategies.

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Underlying problems in foreclosure rates, job losses, and toxic assets at banks remain unresolved, even as the stimulus spending plans and the Fed's putting money into the economy fast have helped restore some degree of confidence.

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The Big Dither

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