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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

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Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT. ...

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India is an attractive place for foreign investors with the country moving up 23 places in the ease of doing business rankings of the World Bank. Growth is faster than China since 2015, and GDP is expected to double to $5 trillion by 2030, according to government think tank NITI Aayog. Corporate deal making from foreign investors exceeds that in China. Mergers and acquisitions targeting Indian companies reaching a total of $93.7 billion in 2018, up 52% from last year, according to Dealogic. Overseas purchases were $39.5 billion for India in 2018 compared to $32.8 billion for China. In comparison to China where trade tensions are increasing, India under the Modi government has improved the ease of doing business- implementing a new bankruptcy code, easing foreign direct investment rules, introduced a nationwide goods and services tax to replace a hodge podge of taxes in different states. In the consumer sector Unilever NV made purchase of a malted drink brand Horlicks from GlaxoSmithKline PLC as part of a $3.75 billion deal. Softbank led a $1 billion investment in OYO Hotels. In infrastructure Tata Steel made a $8.3 billion acquisition of steelmaker Bhushan Steel. Reliance Jio's aggressive push in mobile with low prices is leaving the telecom industry ripe for mergers and consolidation- Bharti Infratel acquired Indus Towers for $6.5 billion. Closely held family companies are also selling out their controlling stakes. ...

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The Saudi government announced sharp cuts in spending and subsidies to cut the deficit in 2016. The deficit in 2015 was about $98 billion or 367 billion riyals , according to Al Arabiya Saudi news channel. In 2016 the budget is designed to cut the deficit to $87 billion or 326 billion riyals. The 2016 budget is for 840 billion riyals, compared to 975 billion riyals in 2015. Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion could be exhausted at this rate by 2020, experts say. Actions being taken by the government include increasing the price of some grades of gasoline sold domestically by 50%, as subsidies are being cut. The drop in oil prices to about $35-$40 is hurting Russia, Saudis and Venezuela. The Saudis have increased defense spending for conflicts in Yemen, and in other areas, as they oppose Iran and Russia in the Iraq- Syria conflict.

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The Economist points out the shortcomings in Indonesia's effort to attract foreign investment and increase growth under the Widodo administration.

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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

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As its economy slows and facing high debt levels, China benefits by an estimated $18 billion a month from lower oil prices in 2015. The estimate is from Starfort Holdings, investment and private equity group. The estimates as China benefits from lower prices of all commodities, including oil, are of about $250 billion annually as China replenishes its stocks of commodities. With $12 million barrels imported daily China is a major emerging market beneficiary, along with India, of the drop in oil prices. Continuing pressure on prices from the expected resilience in shale oil production in the U.S. with learning and the development of new production methods means the benefits are likely to continue. China has also not renegotiated price points in deals made earlier at higher prices with China and Venezuela, as it pursues its foreign interests. Stockpiling of grains and edible oils are being increased by 33% in 2015 by $24.7 billion.

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Brazil faces a debt crisis in 2015-2016. Between 2010 and 2015 foreign debt of local governments and Brazilian firms increased from $100 billion to $250 billion, and dollar debt in local currency from 210 billion reas to 655 billion reas, according to Bank of International Settlements data. State banking institutions BNDES and Caixa Economica Federal financed 35% of loans in 2010, by 2015 this increased to 55%. Subsidized loans at 5.5% by BNDES to firms make Brazilian banking a fiscal operation, requiring additional funding. Petrobras increased debt issuance enormously during this period, and now needs government support as its debt is now one notch above junk status. Interest payments on Brazil's debt is 6% of GDP in 2014. Public sector debt is 66% of GDP, and credit to the private sector is 55% of GDP up from 25% in 2005. It will take Brazil years to recover from a huge borrowing binge.

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Former U.S. president Bush says the U.S. has an important role as a beacon of freedom, human rights and democracy in the world. The U.S. should not shrink from the challenges in the name of a false and temporary stability, and flexibility should not mean ambiguity, difficulties should not mean shrugging away from America's role. Patience, creativity and active American leadership are needed. The Bush administration supported the struggles of people in central Europe and in other countries. This is from a speech Bush gave at the Bush Institute, Southern Methodist University in Dallas, a year into the Arab Spring. A speech that was giving voice to the aspirations of people in the Arab world.

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Different estimates on how quickly and how much additional oil would come into world oil markets if sanctions are lifted. The time estimates range from quickly to 6 months for additional new supplies into world oil markets. Estimates of how much production can be added range from 500,000-800,000 barrels a day from private estimates to 1 million additional barrels a day from Iran's oil company, if sanctions are lifted. UK foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, says "there is still a long way to go if we are going to get there." He told a parliamentary committee that the nonnegotiable part is a window of one year advance notice if Iran were to break out and go for a nuclear weapon, which would be based on technical expert opinion of how long it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon using its knowhow and materials at that Mr Zanganeh took over as oil minister after the election of Rouhani as president 18 months ago. Zanganeh calls the effect of sanctions and the mismanagement of the previous government as "a catastrophe," and he has tried to instill anew discipline in the oil sector. Iran currently produces about 1-1.2 million barrels a day under sanctions, half of earlier levels before sanctions were tightened in 2012 because of the nuclear weapons development issues....

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Brazil's economy is forecast to contract by 2% in 2015, the currency has lost about one third its value and the stock market is down 22% in the last year. This follows the decline in demand for Brazil's commodities exports as China growth slows down. Experts say Brazil is now seeing another boom bust cycle similiar to boom-bust cycles in the past, such as the 1966-73 boom followed by years of hyperinflation and stagnation. Brazil's exports to China declined 17% in the first 7 months of 2015. The crisis is in many ways similiar to crises in other emerging markets dependent on commodities exports. The resources boom leads to overvaluation of the currency, and decline in development of manufacturing away from dependence on commodities exports. Other errors rise from complacency and politics prevalent in such periods. These errors include mismanagement of resources with poor resource allocation decisions such as spending on soccer stadiums in cities in the northeast while basic bus services remained underfinanced in large urban areas, large overspending by the government using state owned bank BNDES to offer rates at below market rates, a credit fueled boom and credit card binge for households, and a reversal of capital flows from the U.S. and Europe with the sharp decline in investment climate. There is a severe loss of confidence in the government of Dilma Rousseff with her approval rating as low as 8%. Corruption scandals at Petrobras show close links between the Workers Party of Rousseff and executives, with about $2 billion in misused funds. Brazil, like other emerging markets such as Russia and India, have taken some lessons from the 1997 financial crisis by setting aside large foreign exchange reserves for a crisis. Brazil's reserves of $397 billion help it cushion the effects with funding of the safety net and support to industries to avoid large layoffs. Other problems not tackled as in Mexico, India, and other emerging markets, are the weak educational system, and poor infrastructure, that create bottlenecks for growth. Brazil could face a lost decade after the debt overhang, decline in foreign investment and commodity export generated revenues. ...

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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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The new Ford Focus being unveiled at the Detroit Auto Show in 2009, is a new kind of car for Ford. This is a new kind of effort, a new discipline that Ford CEO Mullaly has advocated from the beginning. Making one car for all markets worldwide. Early on Mullaly told Ford's chairman Bill Ford that Boeing did not have a 737 for Europe and a 737 for the US and a 737 for Asia, why was Ford building a Focus for Europe and a Focus for the USA. In fact before Mullaly the Focus for the USA was a stripped down version of the European Focus and did not make much of an impression. The new Focus will have 80% common parts and 75% of parts from the same suppliers worldwide, so that a Focus made in Germany and the USA will share the same parts as a Focus made in Russia and a Focus made in China. And all of these plants will go into production at about the same time with the new Focus. To accomplish this transformation of Ford for "One Ford" worldwide, which is also on every business card carried by Ford managers, Mullaly appointed Derrick Kuzak as head of global manufacturing. See link for Derrick Kuzak. And the strategy was announced in mid-2008 with the start of retooling of truck factories in Mexico, Kentucky and Michigan, to make small cars designed in Europe for global markets. The task of coming up with one design for a global car was given to Martin Smith, a British designer based in Cologne, Germany. Smith says tastes are converging worldwide with the internet use, and customers are more unified than one would think, and whats emerging is a new kind of global cool if one looks for it. This is what happened when Focus protypes were shown to consumer panels in Europe, the USA and Asia, with a good impression created in all 3 markets. Aligning the US and European tastes was easier, China was a bit harder and the yellow leather interior popular in Shanghai had to be crossed out. Another challenge that had to be met in adisciplined manner was the varying safety rules and emissions around the world. For example European designers liked to have the windshield further forward, and Ford's global small car chief had to tell his engineers to move it back to meet US crumple zone standards. Similiar challenges had to be met in purchasing by global purchasing chief, Tony Brown, with a massive coordination effort needed to be done globally. And plastic trim from Michigan has to fit perfectly with sheet metal stamped in Michigan, and Ford used a virtual manufacturing system that allows the car to be built in cyberspace, and the bugs taken out at that early virtual build stage. The entire change is part of a metamorphosis at Ford, a change of culture and mastering a new discipline in coordinated effort worldwide for "One Ford." One year ago the Wayne Truck plant here in Detroit made the Navigator and the Expedition large vehicles.. With a $550 million investment this plant will make the Ford Focus a year from now. ...

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Sharp drop in oil prices in Dec. 2015.

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Questions about the viability of Canadian crude oil production from tar sands and shale as oil prices for Canadian crude are at about $17 in Jan. 2016. Western Canadian Select from Alberta traded at about $14 in Jan 2016. Crude oil NY benchmark is at $31, other crude is priced lower if transportation costs and other factors including quality and grade have to be figured in.

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Countries which ignored the lessons of the 1997 financial crisis are affected to a larger degree in the 2014 emerging markets financial crisis- Argentina, Turkey and Thailand have high government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Investors are taking a careful look at individual countries this time and there is less contagon. Flexible exchange rates, and higher foreign exchange reserves are reducing the effects in 2014. The effects on the U.S. and Europe are limited to how this affects the global economy.

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Xi Jinping is said to have brought up the collapse of the Communist Party in Russia under Gorbachev in a closed door Dec. 2012 meeting of Communist Party officials in Guangdong province. A summary of comments obtained by the media shows Jinping bringing up the situation in Russia, where he said the "ideals and convictions wavered," the system suffered decay, the military and the party went in different directions, leading to collapse of the Communist party system. In Jinping's words it took only one word from Gorbachev for dissolution of the Communist Party, and nobody else came out with a different view. Jinping faces several challenges- tackling corruption in the party, making changes in the economy that move it in a different direction from the dominance of the state owned enterprises, improving the condition of people left out by the economic boom from unemployed students and migrant workers to people in rural areas.

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About 400 million or one in 4 people people smoke in China. State ownership of the tobacco industry only makes this worse. Enforcement of bans on smoking is lax. Experts warn that this would become a major healthcare problem in China.

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China's Shanghai stock market declined by 6.9% on the first day of trading Jan. 4, 2016, with trading triggering circuit breakers. The central bank plans to inject $20 billion in short term funds as a signal to investors that it will continue easing.