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Greece's long delayed bond swap with European banks of March 9, 2012
03/09/2012
The bond swap of new bonds with long maturities reflecting a writedown of 53.5% for the old bonds with short maturities was finally achieved on March 9, 2012. By this time Greece's economy was shrinking badly and the new bonds were trading at levels that reflected the need for further writedowns only days after the deal. Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. John Taylor at Stanford say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning to delay writedowns for as long as possible. The effects on the eurozone of the delays in tackling the problem early and decisively are negative or slowing growth and is likely to hurt the banks operating in that environment, raising questions about the wisdom of that strategy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/09/2012
Greece Passes Key Debt TestWall Street Journal 03/09/2012
Apple and issues about job creation and wages
03/04/2012
Linked Articles
Apple Stores Army, Long on Loyalty but Short on Pay
New York Times 06/23/2012
Apple Study on Job Creation Spurs an Economic DebateNew York Times 03/04/2012
The dire need for a free trade agreement between India and Pakistan
03/01/2012
Trade between India and Pakistan was only $2.7 billion. This is smaller than India's trade with Sri Lanka. Michael Boskin, who was instrumental in setting up the North American Free Trade Agreement says trade models suggest that this should be around $50 billion, or 20 times larger, and would bring benefits in wages and economic conditions in the two countries.
Linked Articles
A Passage to India-Pakistan Peace
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2012
Pakistan to Ease India Trade LimitsWall Street Journal 03/01/2012
Failure to tackle tax evasion in Greece estimated at one third of the deficit for 2009
02/19/2012
The implementation of austerity measures in Greece including cuts to the minimum wage hit people with lower wages the hardest. This takes place even as Greece fails to tackle tax evasion by higher income groups such as doctors and engineers. This is estimated by a group of economists who looked at Greek bank records at 11.2 billion euros in 2009.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2012
Greek leaders’ priorities questioned - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/19/2012
The IMF's view on austerity measures, the "German hypothesis," and the British economy
02/17/2012
The IMF's view is that it could take 5 years before the breakeven point on the effects of austerity measures is reached and it turns positive. The "German hypothesis" based on German experience as an exporting nation is that the benefits come sooner in the short term. For Britain, which is not an exporting nation like Germany, the benefits from exports are likely to be limited when the rest of Europe is'seeing declining or stagnant growth. The IMF view means Britain may be faced with the costs of the Cameron-Osborne austerity measures till 2016.
Linked Articles
Britain's Economy Contracts More Than Predicted
New York Times 03/28/2012
Austerity Debate a Matter of DegreeWall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Protecting German taxpayers in eurozone bailouts- German chancellor Merkel and how she called the bluffs of European banks in 2011 and Cyprus in 2013
12/30/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/26/2013
Deepening Crisis Over Euro Pits Leader Against LeaderWall Street Journal 12/30/2011
The U.S. unemployment rate and the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market (2)- 2011-2013
12/12/2011
Ezra Klein points out that the real unemployment rate in November 2011 was 11%- when taking into account the long term unemployed dropping out of the labor market- not about 9%.
Linked Articles
Piecing Together the Job-Picture Puzzle
Wall Street Journal 03/12/2012
Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/12/2011
The situation in Athens, Greece, in Dec. 2011, with the German insistence on strict austerity measures
11/27/2011
The likelihood that Greeks would vote against austerity measures as a condition for staying in the euro, if a referendum were held as proposed.
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
The Spirit of EnterpriseNew York Times 12/01/2011
The minimum wage, inequality, and Mexican Americans in New York City
11/24/2011
New York City as a microcosm of the situation for Hispanics and Mexican Americans in the U.S. Recent demographic changes show a large proportion of the population of children in the U.S. is Hispanic.
Linked Articles
No Money for a Living Wage? But Fat Abounds
New York Times 11/29/2011
Mexicans in New York City Lag in EducationNew York Times 11/24/2011
The case for increasing the minimum wage (5)- Mexican Americans and New York City
11/24/2011
Linked Articles
Mexicans in New York City Lag in Education
New York Times 11/24/2011
No Money for a Living Wage? But Fat AboundsNew York Times 11/29/2011
China's move forward with nuclear energy after the Fukushima nuclear accident
10/10/2011
A move away from coal used for electricity supplies towards nuclear energy. The increase planned is from 11 gigawatts of nuclear energy in 2012 to 40 gigawatts by 2015 and 60-70 gigawatts by 2020. Five nuclear energy projects will be planned at a cost of $27 billion with financing help from a Shanghai IPO offering in 2012.
Linked Articles
China Nuclear Firm Plans Up to $27 Billion IPO
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2012
China Marches On With Nuclear Energy, in Spite of FukushimaNew York Times 10/10/2011
Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
Harvard labor economist Lawrence Katz's solutions to the job crises and high unemployment in the U.S.
09/06/2011
Katz suggest a number of steps including a subsidy for companies creating new jobs. A form of this subsidy is used in Germany with the "kurzarbeit" program which preserves jobs in a downturn. Katz reminds us that there are three job crises facing America- long term unemployed not reflected in government unemployment figures, effects of foreclosures and debt, and the impact of automation with lower job creation in manufacturing. A sustained andmultipronged approach over a number of years is needed and no single panacea or misguided optimism will work.
Linked Articles
The Next First (and Only) 100 Days
New York Times 12/10/2011
Help Displaced WorkersNew York Times 09/06/2011
The risks facing Spain in 2012 with austerity measures when unemployment is at 23%
03/06/2012
Finance Minister Luis de Guindos sees Spain loosing either way with spending cuts that worsen high unemployment and lower economic growth leading to a worsening debt to GDP ratio in 2012, and this situation in turn raising its borrowing costs on $86 billion in debt issuance for 2012. He estimates the debt to GDP ratio will increase under the 2012 budget of 27 billion euros in cuts and an economy shrinking by 1.7% in 2012, by 10% from 2011 to 78%. Markets are focussing on debt in Portugal and Spain in 2012, after focussing on Greece and Italy in 2011.
Linked Articles
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Spain Struggles to Unite Regional Leaders on CutsNew York Times 03/06/2012
Tax increases on the wealthy in Japan by the Shinzo Abe government to go with an increase in the sales tax to 10%
03/04/2012
Linked Articles
Tokyo Set to Raise Levy on Wealthiest
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2013
Prime Minister Noda says tax hike essential for Japan's sustainability - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/04/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (6) What went wrong? What errors were made by the IMF and Germany 2010-2012?
02/22/2012
Linked Articles
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
The Tragic Greek SideshowWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (4) How are the structural issues such as tax evasion in Greece being tackled, after Monti's effort to tackle this in Italy in 2012?
02/18/2012
Surprisingly the Syriza government in 6 months in office did not come up with a plan to implement for tax evasion. This was a major issue for the IMF and in Greece's interest, even though it was going contrary to long standing practice in Greece as it was in Italy. Estimates of lost revenue are about $11 billion each year for tax evasion. By comparison the IMF payment due was less than $2 billion on June 30, 2015. Sustainable long term finances make this a major issue in Greece's own interest. Greece has an aging population and the number of retirees are growing in relation to young working people making this an important issue for stable finances under any administration, and regardless of the euro.
Linked Articles
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economy
Washington Post 07/10/2012
A Hollow Target for Greek DebtWall Street Journal 02/18/2012
Mario Monti and the future of the European Union
02/10/2012
Monti on more democracy in the European Union with more power for the European Parliament, and the enduring quality of the EU becaus it is in the interests of Germany.
Linked Articles
Italyâs Leader Is Optimistic About Greece and Euro
New York Times 02/10/2012
Italy's Leader Warns EU Needs Better DemocracyWall Street Journal 02/16/2012
The passage of the unpopular sales tax hike and political uncertainty in Japan
12/27/2011
Critics say the Democratic Party of Japan should have invested efforts in its election promises to cut wasteful spending. Polls show a majority of Japanese oppose the doubling of the sales tax to 10%.
Linked Articles
Vote Ensures Japan Will Double Sales Tax to 10%
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2012
Tokyo's Move to Raise Tax Hits SnagWall Street Journal 12/27/2011
Expert opinion on the problem with German insistence on tough austerity measures in Greece, Italy and Spain and Portugal
11/28/2011
Without economic growth the problems of debt reduction become more difficult to tackle. Austerity measures may lead to shrinking economies in these countries creating larger deficits.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/28/2011
Europe's Currency Road to NowhereWall Street Journal 11/29/2011
Tax evasion in Italy and Greece and Germany's insistence on good governance and financial practices for a sound euro currency
11/25/2011
One estimate of tax evasion in Italy cited by Faiola in the Post is $340 billon a year. Greece has a similiar problem. This is one area in which the culture and practices of individual countries have to converge to acceptable norms to make a common currrency viable, something the founders of the euro currency did not take as seriously as needed and account for in a disciplined framework. The political enthusiasm for a union of European countries of EU founders led to ignoring the dangers of not having controls and convergence in place.
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/01/2011
Amid crisis, Italy confronts a culture of tax evasion - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/25/2011
Inequality- wages and education with the changing demographics in New York
11/24/2011
Linked Articles
No Money for a Living Wage? But Fat Abounds
New York Times 11/29/2011
Mexicans in New York City Lag in EducationNew York Times 11/24/2011
The Christian Democratic Union, the 2011 CDU convention in Leipzig, and the shifting German view on strict austerity policies
11/15/2011
A faction of the CDU favors a strict interpretation of austerity policies for the eurozone. As CDU leader, Angela Merkel shifts policies to accomodate growing weariness in the rest of Europe with strict austerity policies to accomodate growth, Merkel faces dissent in the CDU. This is evident in the conflicting statements from the EU trade commissioner Mr Gucht, and its economic affairs commissioner Mr. Rehn, on Greece continuing in the eurozone, after Merkel's stated willingness to compromise at the Camp David G-8 summit.
Linked Articles
Greek Stimulus Is an Option, Merkel Says
New York Times 05/16/2012
Merkel Party Seeks Euro Exit PolicyWall Street Journal 11/15/2011
Erfurt, Thuringia, Germany- (2) in 2011 with the visit of Pope Benedict XVI to the monastery where Luther studied, and in 2015 with arrival of Syrian refugees
09/24/2011
Linked Articles
Empathy and Angst in a German City Transformed by Refugees
New York Times 09/11/2015
Pope Visits Venerated Lutheran MonasteryNew York Times 09/24/2011
Germany's Pirate party of digital activists and anti-establishment sentiment
09/19/2011
The Pirate party won about 9% of the vote in the Berlin election. It is likely to win a similiar share of the vote in other state elections.
Linked Articles
'Pirates' Deal a Blow to Germany's Political Status Quo
Wall Street Journal 04/10/2012
Berlin Poll Hits Merkel CoalitionWall Street Journal 09/19/2011
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