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Russia as emerging market (1) - declining currency and stagflation
01/17/2014
Declining growth characterizes all emerging markets. High reserves in Russia and Brazil separate the two countries from Argentina and Turkey where foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to prevent sharp declines in the currrency. Russia also has a low budget deficit. The foreign investment climate in Russia and India has deteriorated reducing capital inflows for modernizing the economy in India and diversifying the economy in Russia.
Linked Articles
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia Is Facing Stagflation, Central Banker SaysWall Street Journal 01/17/2014
Why NASDAQ is different in 2014 from 2000- more diverse and taking out much of the speculative component
11/26/2013
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/28/2013
Four Reasons Why Nasdaq 4000 Differs From Tech BubbleWall Street Journal 11/26/2013
Why China and India see a "win-win spirit" in the Iran nuclear deal of July 2015- access to lower cost oil supplies for an extended period
08/21/2013
With the need to boost growth in India, and slowing growth in China, the prospect of lower cost Iranian oil imports is a bright spot for both countries.
Linked Articles
Oil-Thirsty China a Winner in Iran Deal
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
Rupee Throws Oil on India's Subsidy ProblemWall Street Journal 08/21/2013
Getting economic policy right- A second look at Japan, the European Union and the U.S. in 2014-2015
06/09/2013
In taking a second look, economists Stiglitz and Krugman ask if much derided Japan has avoided the worst effects of unemployment that have affected Spain, Italy, Greece, and France in the eurozone, and for the the long term unemployed in the U.S. And in doing so also avoided the widening income and wealth gaps opened up in the other industrialized countries.
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/30/2014
Japan Is a Model Not a Cautionary TaleNew York Times 06/09/2013
Funding infrastructure needs in Asia and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
02/14/2013
Led by China, and with founding members India, S. Korea, Britain, Australia, France, Germany and Italy, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is intended to provide much needed financing for infrastructure in Asia. Huge bottlenecks for development exist in Asia's developing countries, including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines, which can only be tackled through innovative methods of financing. China which has moved ahead in infrastructure development is providing the leadership for this bank. Experts say Europe is right to join, and the U.S. should have supported the idea at the early stage.
Linked Articles
Hostility From U.S. as China Lures Allies to New Bank
New York Times 03/19/2015
Hot Topic in Moscow Talks: How to Fund InfrastructureWall Street Journal 02/14/2013
Shell and BP see a continuing dependence on fossil fuels in the next 2-4 decades
01/16/2013
China will continue to propel global demand growth and be a major factor, with additional growth coming from India, Russia and the Middle East.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2013
Shell CEO Scripts a Leading Role for GasWall Street Journal 01/16/2013
Auditor General and Supreme Court three panel bench in India agree that there was an improper allocation of coal licenses in India
12/28/2012
India's Supreme Court confirms in August 2014 an earlier report by the Auditor General about improper allocation of coal licenses under the Congress party administration of former prime minister Manmohan Singh. Because this is in a strategic sector of energy where India has fallen behind it has many implications for declining economic growth.
Linked Articles
India Allocated Coal Fields to Private Companies Illegally, Top Court Rules
New York Times 08/25/2014
India’s chief auditor leads battle against corruption - The Washington PostWashington Post 12/28/2012
Chicago Fed president Evan's "7-3 plan" and U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's announcement to keep interest rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5%
12/13/2012
Linked Articles
A Fed Bank President's Idea Comes to Life
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
Fed Ties Rates to JoblessnessWall Street Journal 12/13/2012
U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's activist interest rate policies to tackle high unemployment and central bankers from MIT
12/12/2012
A pragmatic activist focus in economic thinking shaped at the MIT economics department in Cambridge, Masachusetts. The ECB's Mario Draghi, Bank of England's Mervyn King, and Bernanke shaped their thinking at MIT. Draghi and Bernanke had the same PhD. advisor- Stanley Fischer. Factors calling for a pragmatic approach include the lack of political agreement on th deficit, the housing and foreclosure crisis effects, higher inequality and unemployment effects on the middle class, the effects of the globalized economy on working class manufacturing jobs, people dropping out of the labor foce, and lower inflation, which called for a larger focus on unemployment. Bernanke emphasized the "enormous waste in human potential and productive resources of the economy" throughout 2009-2012. Draghi emphasized the abnormal nature of excessive borrowing interest rates for Italy and Spain during the ECB's bond buying efforts in 2011-2012. Both efforts had a stabilizing effect on the economies of the U.S. and Europe during a period of political discord about future policy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
MIT Forged Activist Views of Central Bank Role and Cinched Central Bankers' TiesWall Street Journal 12/12/2012
The part-time low wage jobs generated by the American economy in recent years, especially since 2008
11/06/2012
The biggest challenge facing the American economy is high unemployment and the lack of well paying jobs that formed the core job base of the middle class. Jobs generated since 2008 are largely low wage part-time work in retail and related industries. Wages have also fallen sharply in manufacturing industries as the U.S. competes with Asian manufacturers.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/07/2012
A Part-Time, Low-Wage EpidemicWall Street Journal 11/06/2012
The EU debate between France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel before and during the EU's Oct. 2012 meeting
10/17/2012
The issue was direct aid to Spanish banks and the early setup of an EU banking supervisor so that Spain could get early debt relief as its economy struggles with high unemployment of over 25%. Chancellor Merkel turned down direct aid to Spanish banks, and partly relented on banking supervision by agreeing to have the legislation completed by Jan 2013 and the actual setup of the supervision authority during the course of 2013, probably after elections in Germany in Sept. 2013.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Hollande fires warning shot at Merkel over austerity on eve of EU summit | World news | guardian.co.ukThe Guardian 10/17/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
Lenovo's effort to increase smartphone sales in China and emerging markets
08/14/2012
Lenovo is positioning itself to become the dominant smartphone company in China, second only to Samsung. It is creating a brand presence in China's rural areas for PC's and mobile devices which is likely to further enhance sales. This effort extends to other emerging markets in Asia such as India and Indonesia. Other strategic decisions include bringing in more manufactuing in-house compared to competitors HP and others in the PC industry.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2012
HTC Beefs Up China Push as U.S., Europe LagWall Street Journal 08/14/2012
NASDAQ in 2015 very different from the NASDAQ of 2000
11/28/2013
Linked Articles
The New Nasdaq Record, Set By a New Nasdaq
Wall Street Journal 04/24/2015
Surging Nasdaq Pierces 4000Wall Street Journal 11/28/2013
Janet Yellen and mentor Yale economist James Tobin- concern for the long term unemployed and parttime workers looking for full time jobs
10/09/2013
Linked Articles
Yellenâs Path From Liberal Theorist to Fed Voice for Jobs
New York Times 10/09/2013
Yellen Assures Markets on Interest RatesWall Street Journal 04/01/2014
Insights into the thinking of Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke for a strong labor market before increasing interest rates
07/18/2013
Yellen is expected to look beyond the unemployment rate target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012, and give emphasis to the long term unemployed. Bernanke also mention the under employment rate as an additional factor to consider.
Linked Articles
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates
New York Times 01/23/2014
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed MovesWall Street Journal 07/18/2013
The common challenges facing Pakistan's elected democratic government and its military leaders in modernizing the economy
05/18/2013
A new dynamic is taking hold in South Asia even as Indian officials remain skeptical. China's prime minister Li Keqiang visits India with a trade delegaton and sees trade reaching $100 billion a year between the two countries and growing rapidly. Pakistan's military and civilian leaders also see the urgency for modernizing the economy and building infrastructure as Pakistan begins to catchup with its neighbors in Asia.
Linked Articles
Pakistan army chief meets incoming prime minister in ‘good omen’ - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/20/2013
In a Journey on a Crumbling Railway, a Picture of a Nationâs TroublesNew York Times 05/18/2013
Greece and living up to euro currency responsibilities- efforts under Papadopoulos 2002, Giannitsis 2001, Manos 1998 and Tsipras's commitment in 2015 15
01/28/2013
Can Greece live up to its euro currency responsibilities, is the question raised inside the eurozone, as Greece renews its commitment to reforms to build a modern economy. A look back at politicians who emphasized euro currency responsibilities and the candid remarks by Tsipras in an intervew with Bret Stephens of the WSJ.
Linked Articles
The Politicians Who Warned Greece—but Were Ignored
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2015
Stephens: The Conscience of a RadicalWall Street Journal 01/28/2013
China's plan to tap shale gas resources to 2020
01/16/2013
Linked Articles
China's Bid for Shale-Gas Riches in Doubt
Wall Street Journal 01/24/2013
Shell CEO Scripts a Leading Role for GasWall Street Journal 01/16/2013
Environmental pollution and extremely poor air quality in New Delhi, India, and Beijing, China
12/26/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2013
Indian City Overwhelmed by Air Pollution â New Delhi JournalNew York Times 12/26/2012
The influence of Yale Professor James Tobin on Janet Yellen as she shapes Fed policy to tackle U.S. unemployment
12/13/2012
Linked Articles
Yellenâs Path From Liberal Theorist to Fed Voice for Jobs
New York Times 10/09/2013
A Fed Bank President's Idea Comes to LifeWall Street Journal 12/13/2012
Unemployment in the U.S. in 2010-2013 with fewer workers looking for work
12/07/2012
Linked Articles
The Case of the Missing Workers
Wall Street Journal 12/07/2012
A Jobless Dilemma: What's Wrong With Fort Wayne?Wall Street Journal 12/07/2012
German chancellor Merkel and the EU plan for aid to Spain's banks in Oct. 2012
10/18/2012
Merkel turns down an effort pushed by France and Spain at the Oct. 2012 EU leaders meeting for direct aid to Spanish banks. Instead money has to go from the European Stability Mechanism fund to Spain after a request by Spain for aid. The aid request by Spain would be met under program of conditionality set by the IMF, EU and ECB. Spain is delaying a request for aid as borrowing rates on Spanish bonds declined to about 5% by late October 2012. The Rajoy government in Spain faces regional spending problems and separatis sentiment in addition to high unemployment and a worsening situation with its banks. Merkel faces elections for chancellor in Germany in Sept. 2013 and says more time is needed to setup the eurozone banking supervisory authority- to be set up in the course of 2013 with the legal setup completed by Jan 2013 as a concession to France. This would push banking supervision and financial architecture till after the election.
Linked Articles
German Refusal on Bank Aid Mars European Summit
New York Times 10/19/2012
Europe Seeks a Spain StrategyWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
Planned urbanization for 2020 as a growth engine in China as existing income concentration makes a surge in consumer spending unlikely
10/03/2012
Linked Articles
China Unveils Urbanization Plan
Wall Street Journal 03/16/2014
Rebalancing a Divided ChinaWall Street Journal 10/03/2012
Indian prime minister Singh's economic plan in the face of slowing growth in 2012
09/21/2012
In a televised address Singh says the market opening measures for the retail and other sectors are needed to maintain growth and foreign investment. Finance minister Chidambaram tells the WSJ in an Oct 2012 interview- the risks were too great with India facing a lowering of its credit rating, and the government having reflected on the serious consequences of not acting spelled out in the worst case scenario of the Kelkar committee report. The Indian government actions include lowering diesel subsidies and action to control the deficit, with a plan to bring it down to 3% by 2017.
Linked Articles
Q&A With Finance Minister Chidambaram
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2012
Singh Appeals to India to Support His MeasuresNew York Times 09/21/2012
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