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Economic losses of 3% in GDP per head with Brexit and 8% with no-deal Brexit leaving Britons poorer
12/01/2018
As the Brexit option becomes clear as a hit to ordinary Britons and the British economy prime minister Theresa May takes her deal to the British parliament for a vote. Most opinion says it will be rejected, if not rejected outright by Conservatives and Labour MP's. A second vote may be taken. The Opposition Labour Party prepares for a new election with a divided government.
Linked Articles
The Economist 11/30/2018
Don’t write off the prime minister’s deal just yetThe Economist 11/30/2018
How the Democratic Party lost its blue collar working class identity to the Republican Party by 2018
07/20/2018
Linked Articles
Donald Trump is causing change in the Democratic Party too
The Economist 07/20/2018
America’s Factory Towns, Once Solidly Blue, Are Now a GOP HavenWSJ 07/19/2018
India's general election in 2019- performance and flaws of the Modi government
06/05/2018
Differing views of the Modi government, views of the middle class hurt by demonetisation uncertainty from Dhume and views representing the interests of the rural, lower income and other part of the middle class from Arvind Panagriya. Some of the changes brought about by the Modi government reflecting the vision of Mahatma Gandhi for fundamental change from the ground up in the villages and rural parts of India- health and sanitation, access to bank accounts, access to health care- coupled with Nehru's vision of modernization using the technologies of the twenty first century.
Linked Articles
Times of India Blog 06/05/2018
Modi government at four years: It has pushed through a range of structural reforms whose results will showTimes of India Blog 05/30/2018
Stable oil prices and low volatility in 2018- the result of U.S. shale oil supply stream and OPEC/Russia cuts
06/01/2018
This low volatility in oil prices is good for both producers and consumers, and shale oil from U.S. is a big part of this.
Linked Articles
How OPEC and Shale Have Squeezed Out Volatility in the Oil Market
WSJ 06/01/2018
The New Tech That Terrifies OPECWSJ 06/01/2018
Do tax cut benefits go mainly to the 10% of Americans who own 84% of the stocks- evidence of corporate buybacks vs increasing wages/new capital investment for growth to help the middle class
03/01/2018
Linked Articles
Boom in Share Buybacks Renews Question of Who Wins From Tax Cuts
WSJ 03/01/2018
Tax Cuts Benefit the Ultra Rich, but Not the Merely RichThe New York Times 12/19/2017
The New York Times Interview with president Donald Trump in July 2017 and reporter Maggie Haberman
07/20/2017
Exceptional reporting by Baker and Haberman of the NYT and the reporting relationship established with Trump by Maggie Haberman.
Linked Articles
Analysis | Why Trump gave the Jeff Sessions scoop to the ‘failing’ New York Times
Washington Post 07/20/2017
Excerpts From The Times’s Interview With TrumpThe New York Times 07/20/2017
The Women20 Summit in Berlin and the path for women to the workplace in Europe, the U.S., and other countries
05/08/2017
The views expressed at the Women20 Summit at the G-20 summit in Berlin reflect the views of women leaders including Angela Merkel. Problems women in the U.S. are facing are covered here by Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. For the first time leaders of the stature of Merkel and Yellen are talking about these issues openly to drive the debate and clear the path for women.
Linked Articles
The real issues at Women20 | Business | DW.COM | 26.04.2017
DW.COM 04/26/2017
To Lift Growth, Janet Yellen Says, Make It Easier for Women to WorkThe New York Times 05/05/2017
Republican House health care bill in 2017 and shift in priorities- $337 billion in savings, expected lower premiums, but leaving 14 million more uninsured in 2018
03/13/2017
A shift in priorities from the poor to the middle class- targeting lower premiums for people who have seen their premiums increase sharply, reducing the overall cost with savings of $337 billion, yet leaving 14 million more people uninsured.
Linked Articles
CBO Sees 24 Million More Uninsured, $337 Billion Deficit Cut in Coming Decade With GOP Health Plan
WSJ 03/13/2017
US health bill 'to leave 14m more uninsured' - BBC NewsBBC News 03/13/2017
Labor and trade unions in the U.S.- the crisis by 2016 after 8 years of a Democratic administration under president Obama
12/09/2016
Linked Articles
The White House’s claim that 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added during Obama’s presidency
Washington Post 12/09/2016
Trump era confronts organized labor with gravest crisis in decadesWashington Post 12/09/2016
Deutsche Bank legal settlements, including $14 billion with the U.S. Justice Department, that may require rescue by the German government
09/27/2016
Linked Articles
Opinion: Deutsche Bank in dire straits | Opinion | DW.COM | 27.09.2016
DW.COM 09/27/2016
America’s Department of Justice asks Deutsche Bank for $14 billionThe Economist 09/16/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (4) the elections in France and Germany in 2017, and chancellor Merkel likely to link granting benefits of the single market to free movement within the European Union
08/16/2016
Chancellor Merkel has clearly stated that she sees the benefits of a single market going along with the idea of free movement within the European Union. With elections in 2017 and after not giving into Eastern European states in 2016, Merkel is likely to again remind Germany and France of the the true spirit in which the founders setup the European Union.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
EU Governments Gird for Steely New British LeaderWSJ 07/12/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families
08/10/2016
The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/19/2012
Paul Ryan beats outsider 'mini-Donald Trump' challenger in Wisconsin primaryThe Guardian 08/10/2016
Protecting the U.S. auto and steel workers, by replacing NAFTA- first trade deal of the Trump administration
08/28/2018
Linked Articles
Mexico Pact Eases Car Makers’ Concerns
WSJ 08/28/2018
What the U.S.-Mexico Trade Pact SaysWSJ 08/27/2018
Aging of the white population in the U.S. and the effects on politics, trade, immigration and other issues by 2018
06/21/2018
Linked Articles
Fewer Births Than Deaths Among Whites in Majority of U.S. States
New York Times 06/20/2018
Growth in Retiring Baby Boomers Strains U.S. Entitlement ProgramsWSJ 06/21/2018
India's foreign relations in 2018 after the Wuhan Summit - a close relationship with the U.S. balanced by good relations with China and Russia
06/05/2018
Wuhan Summit
Linked Articles
Chinese, Indian Leaders Seek Harmony After a Fractious Year
WSJ 04/26/2018
Why India avoids alliancesThe Economist 06/02/2018
Automakers in the U.S. and the problem with looser emissions standards proposed by the Trump administration
04/02/2018
Linked Articles
Opinion | Looser Emissions Standards Will Hurt the Auto Industry
03/30/2018
Automakers Sought Looser Rules but May Get More Than They Bargained for03/31/2018
A Washington Post report on the election meddling by Russia in 2016
12/14/2017
Linked Articles
Opinion | This new report confirms that Trump’s megalomania threatens our democracy
Washington Post 12/14/2017
How Trump’s skepticism of U.S. intelligence on Russia left an election threat uncheckedWashington Post 12/14/2017
Donald Trump Jr, Donald Trump, and the investigation by Special Counsel Mueller in 2017- the Republican Party position in WSJ and the Trump response
07/20/2017
Linked Articles
WSJ 07/18/2017
Citing Recusal, Trump Says He Wouldn’t Have Hired SessionsThe New York Times 07/19/2017
The moderating influence of business executives Gary Cohn, Wilbur Ross and Muilenburg on president Trump- change in policy on NAFTA, Mexico, China and Export Import Bank
04/14/2017
Business executives help moderate the campaign positions taken by Donald Trump during the first 100 days of his presidency, putting him closer to the traditional view on China, Mexico, NATO and Russia.
Linked Articles
Donald Trump’s Recent Policy Reversals Reflect Business Influence
WSJ 04/14/2017
Within Trump’s inner circle, a moderate voice captures the president’s earWashington Post 04/14/2017
China's Jinping and Germany's Merkel warning about dangers of protectionism to world trade
01/17/2017
Germany and China take the lead to defend the world trading system following protectionist views expressed by U.S. president elect Trump.
Linked Articles
Xi Jinping signals China will champion free trade if Trump builds barriers
The Guardian 01/17/2017
Germany's Merkel to warn Trump about dangers of protectionism | News | DW.COM | 14.01.2017DW.COM 01/14/2017
The M5S party, Virginia Raggi and Beppe Grillo, following the "no" vote in Italy's referendum in 2016
12/05/2016
Linked Articles
Virginia Raggi could be the answer to Rome's mess | Europe | DW.COM | 04.06.2016
DW.COM 06/04/2016
European leaders call for calm as Italy's Renzi resigns | News | DW.COM | 04.12.2016DW.COM 12/04/2016
The 1976 Montreal Olympics, the 2004 Athens Olympics, the 2014 Sochi Olympics and the Rio Olympics- decades long debt hangovers and costs growing from the $1+ billion in Montreal to $50+ billion in Sochi
08/24/2016
Developing and developed countries alike have seen the cost of the Olympics as a huge burden. Many countries or cities that committed to hosting the Olympic games during boom years were facing economic hard times by the time of the games. Corruption and mismanagement of public funds, overspending and cost overruns added to the problems. Citizens uproar caused cities such as Boston and Oslo to withdraw bids for the Olympics. The Olympics appears to be a costly way to show off a country, and raises questions about better allocation of funds in other directions, especially when upward mobility is a problem for the middle and working class, countries have other infrastructure needs, and neglected basic needs in education, healthcare, public services.
Linked Articles
The 40-year hangover: how the 1976 Olympics nearly broke Montreal
The Guardian 07/06/2016
Rio Games Highlight Problems With the Olympic ModelThe New York Times 08/23/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (3) the inclusion of key "Leave" supporters in Theresa May's cabinet
08/16/2016
By including a key member of the "Leave" vote, Mr Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, in the cabinet as Foreign Secretary, Theresa May has given herself a lot more flexibility in tackling the Brexit issue so that it does not hurt the British economy. It would be hard for a key cabinet member not to be part of the team position on issues, and for the team to ignore the Bank of England's role in steadying the economy. By making the issues important to working class people in Britain her priorities Theresa May also lays the ground for everyone in Britain to gain moving forward as the economy recovers.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Theresa May, New British Prime Minister, Gives Boris Johnson a Key PostThe New York Times 07/13/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (1) the pro stay vote in Ireland and Scotland
08/16/2016
Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, is deeply committed to the idea of the union of England with Scotland and Ireland. Invoking Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, a step necessary for Brexit, would also lead to Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party to initiate plans for a second referendum for Scottish independence, as Scotland votd to remain in the European Union. The issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU would also lead to serious repercussions. In short it will be hard to separate the leave vote in England from the stay vote in Scotland and Ireland, as it will be difficult for most British people to imagine a England without a British identity. If the referendum had asked the second question "Do you still vote leave if this means the end of Britain or the United Kingdom?" the vote could have turned out differently for nationalist voters.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
No return to border controls in Northern Ireland, UK PM May says | News | DW.COM | 25.07.2016DW.COM 07/25/2016
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