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Did Putin overreact in Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014? Russia and the dangers to the Russian economy of not maintaining good relations with the West
08/13/2008
Russia tones down its overreaction as 66% of Russians polled in June say Russian forces should not enter Ukrainian terrritory. Putin and Russians in the administration policy making may have underestimated the reaction in the U.S. as reflected in this WSH editorial saying Americans should remember the words of Gen. Lucius Clay during the Berlin Blockade and the subsequent airlift. This could be why analysts in Russia now maintain that good relations with the West must be maintained, and entry of Russian forces into Ukraine would have disastrous consequences for Russia in terms of western sentiment and foreign investor sentiment. In such a situation Germany would be likely to support the stronger U.S. position seeing this in terms of the language used in theBerlin Airlift of 1948. For Germany and Russia this would be reversing the hard won gains of building relations from the time of Brandtand Kohl till today, fifty years of effort to build better relations and economic relationships- just too much for sober heads in Moscow Paris, and Berlin to accept, and closing another chapter in Russia's interactions with the West.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 08/13/2008
Seeing Cost of Saber Rattling in Ukraine, Putin Alters CourseNew York Times 07/11/2014
Drug cartels emerging in Afghaistan.
07/27/2008
The UN OFfice of Drugs and Crime ses the growth of drug cartels in Afghaistan as 10,000 tons of drugs from the opium crop have been stockpiled inside Afghistan and are controlled by narco-gangs. This is estimated as 2 years of world demand. This as efforts to curb opium growing have reduced the land devoted to the crop by 22% and reduced the crop by 10%.
Linked Articles
U.N. Sees Afghan Drug Cartels Emerging
New York Times 09/02/2009
Is Afghanistan a Narco-State?New York Times 07/27/2008
Wind Energy and transmission lines that were built for another era that are a bottleneck.
07/19/2008
Transmission lines built for another era are a road block in the rapid development of wind energy as wind turbines are located in the sparsely populated areas like Kansas and the transmission capacity does not exist to the areas of high demand along the eastern and western seaboard.
Linked Articles
Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid’s Limits
New York Times 08/27/2008
Texas Approves a $4.93 Billion Wind-Power ProjectNew York Times 07/19/2008
How good were the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of 2012?
07/16/2008
Reilly questions the leveraging aspect of the Fed's 2002 stress test results as they leave U.S. banks leveraging at between 20-30 times capital, the situation that prevailed before the crisis. Experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago pointed out how the process of deleveraging works in reverse before the collapse of Lehman in 2008- for every $1 of bank losses the deleveraging cycle reduces bank lending by $20- $30.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
Winding down U.S. housing agencies Fannie and Freddie- the politics, lobbying, and the "ugly" that created the ensuing mess in housing (5)
07/12/2008
Linked Articles
Few Stand to Gain on This Bailout, and Many Lose
New York Times 09/08/2008
Fannie Mae UglyWall Street Journal 07/12/2008
The impact of energy costs on the Chines export model of low cost low margin textiles, shoes household goods
06/20/2008
Higher energy prices are showing up in the higher cost of Chinese goods abroad along with other cost increases.
Linked Articles
China's Export Machine Threatened by Rising Costs
Wall Street Journal 06/30/2008
China Sharply Raises Energy PricesNew York Times 06/20/2008
Huge shift in car mix in favor of smaller cars as USA buyers finally make the shift and fast.
06/19/2008
Small cars sales move up quickly from 12.5% to 20% of vehicles sold. Market is running at 12.5 million vehicles in May 2008. The small car share will rise much higher as supplies increase, currently small cars sell quickly and are in short supply especially for Hona Fit and Civic cars and the Ford Focus.
Linked Articles
The Smaller the Better, Automakers Are Finding
New York Times 06/20/2008
GM Puts Off Truck, SUV Redesigns In New FocusWall Street Journal 06/19/2008
IHS Energy Associates's Yergin sees shale technologies changing the energy business by 2020, and IEA misses this completely
05/22/2008
Long term forecasting is a difficult business. IEA's 2015 forecast missed the situation in 2015 completely. Yergin was right but did not see how fast this would happen with oil prices down to $50 per barrel in 2015 and prices at the pump below $2.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2011
Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production CrunchWall Street Journal 05/22/2008
The U.S. automobile market in 2008-2013- collapse, recovery and renewal
05/20/2008
Linked Articles
Car Makers' Boom Years Now Look Like a Bubble
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2008
Auto Makers Rebound as Buyers Go BigWall Street Journal 01/04/2014
Imbalances in the global economy that will take time to correct- the situation in the U.S., Europe and emerging markets in 2012-2013
05/05/2008
The perception that "this time is different" is a typical behavioural reaction in history to to financial crises studied by Rogoff and Reinhart. Economic weakness is part of the mechanism for correcting global imbalances which happens over a number of years.
Linked Articles
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2008
Boom, Bust. Repeat.Wall Street Journal 10/09/2009
Toyota Prius hybrid- hard sell in India and China
04/21/2008
The Prius is priced around $22,000 in Japan and the U.S. In India and China it costs around $40,000 with import duties. This makes it a hard sell where pollution is a major problem.
Linked Articles
In India, 'Green Cars' Look Like a Hard Sell
Wall Street Journal 01/08/2010
In China, Hybrids Are Tough SellWall Street Journal 04/21/2008
Lower incomes in manufacturing and and a general lowering of expectations in U.S. midwestern states like Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin (1)
04/20/2008
Improving unemployment figures in Ohio in 2012 with 7.2% unemployment has come with lower incomes in manufacturing and a lowering of expectations about the future.
Linked Articles
Ohio economy improving, but residents can’t feel it - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/08/2012
The Wage That Meant Middle ClassNew York Times 04/20/2008
The Fed engineered takeover of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan Chase
03/17/2008
The takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan at $2 a share with the Fed's backing the weekend of March 15-16, 2008, and the questions about Lehman Brothers.
Linked Articles
At Lehman, Allaying Fears About Being the Next to Fall
New York Times 03/18/2008
Fed Acts to Rescue Financial MarketsNew York Times 03/17/2008
Honda's decades long emphasis on the environment and fuel efficent small cars is making it a winner.
07/28/2008
Honda is the only one of the large manufacturers od autos that is increasing sales in the North American market.
Linked Articles
Honda Stays True to Efficient Driving
New York Times 08/26/2008
Honda's On the Go As Auto Makers Brace for July ResultsWall Street Journal 07/28/2008
Roche's bid for complete ownership of Genentech.
07/22/2008
Can the long standing independent operation of Genentech's discovery team under Levinson be maintained under the effort to integrate Genetech more into Roche. Will it result in synergies removing "a Chinese wall" as a head of Roche R&D puts it or will it lead to the loss of key members of the team over time especially as they were not brought into the discussion process about this move leaving them in confusion.
Linked Articles
Roche's Big Hurdle with Genentech
BusinessWeek 07/24/2008
Roche Bid Blindsided GenentechWall Street Journal 07/22/2008
$10 billion in cuts in spending that GM plans
07/16/2008
One of the areas is ad spending and sales expenses. GM spends over $2 billion in adspending.
Linked Articles
GM Plans $10 Billion In Cuts to Bolster Cash
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2008
GM's Ad-Spending Cuts Likely to RippleWall Street Journal 07/16/2008
Leveraging of banks U.S. banks in 2012 under the U.S. Federal Reserve stress tests of March 2012 and the leveraging at the time of Lehman's collapse in 2008
07/16/2008
The high rate of leveraging of banks today compared to 2008, suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have prematurely declared the banks safe, say experts.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
Geneal Motors Board and its top management hobble along without a vision or timely decisions at critical turning points.
06/28/2008
The lack of vigorous discussion at the Board and top management levels of Gneral Motors is the most striking thing about the company. Classic example how the larger and more successful an institution, there is no assurance that even the vital skills of vigorous discussion and openness to fresh thinking promoted by its founders like Alfred Sloan in this case in one of his meetings, that these skills will be available in the future.
Linked Articles
GM's Massive Quarterly Loss Adds to Turnaround Pressure
Wall Street Journal 08/02/2008
McCain Offers Aid, No 'Bailout' on AutosWall Street Journal 06/28/2008
China's oil demand to grow at 2-3% over the next 15 years by one estimate.
06/20/2008
A much slower growth in oil demand as fuel efficient engines make a strong impact. Government policy raising oil prices, giving tax breaks for smaller engines to promote smaller cars on Chinese roads, and promotion of new hybrid and electric car technologies with significant subsidies, all push in this direction.
Linked Articles
China's Thirst for Oil Could Come Up Short
Wall Street Journal 06/01/2010
China Sharply Raises Energy PricesNew York Times 06/20/2008
Differing timelines for Bill Ford and Mullaly at Ford and Wagoner at GM in their shift to smaller cars.
06/04/2008
GM was late in the shift to smaller cars than Ford even as the shift was taking place. Both companies though remained mired in a decades long stagnation in fuel efficency even as companies like Honda moved forward, and as the gap with the Europeans and the Japanese in the technology and skills of making small cars widened.
Linked Articles
G.M. Closing 4 Plants in Shift From Trucks Toward Cars
New York Times 06/04/2008
Bill Ford on Tipping Points and Thinking SmallBusinessWeek 07/31/2008
How all carmakers and Detroit automakers in particular missed what was happening in the economy and the market with dire results.
05/20/2008
Even as late as May 22, 2008 Ford pared its outlook to 14-15 million cars as reported by Jeff Bennett in the WSJ. That puts the situation in October 2008, with a 30-40% drop in sales year over year only 5 months away.
Linked Articles
Car Makers' Boom Years Now Look Like a Bubble
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2008
Ford Motor Pares OutlookWall Street Journal 05/22/2008
Karen Elliott House, expert on Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, on the U.S., the EU, and Saudi Arabia- demographics, aspirations and the princes 2007-2014
05/14/2008
Pulitzer prize winning journalist for reporting from the Middle East and expert on Saudi Arabia, Karen Elliott House, describes the changes in Saudi Arabia with the huge young demographic, and what it means for Saudi society, U.S.-Saudi relations, meeting the aspirations of young people.
Linked Articles
As the Middle East Burns, the Saudis Ease Up at Home
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2014
Our Friends in RiyadhWall Street Journal 05/14/2008
The U.S. with 5% of the world's population and 25% of the prison population in the world- the failure of the prison system in rehabilitation of light offenders
04/23/2008
Linked Articles
Inmate Count in U.S. Dwarfs Other Nations’
New York Times 04/23/2008
End Mass Incarceration NowNew York Times 05/24/2014
Strategies of newspaper media business as advertising revenues decline (1)- The New York Times and Le Monde
04/21/2008
Linked Articles
Finances Frail, Le Monde Contemplates the Unthinkable
New York Times 04/21/2008
Billionaire Reaches Deal On Funding For Times Co.Wall Street Journal 01/20/2009
Debt gorged Britain and the U.S.
03/22/2008
British debt is even worse than the American debt with household debt to income ratio at 1.62 in Britain compared to 1.42 in the USA. Continental cousins in Germany have a ratio of 1.09.
Linked Articles
Debt-Gorged British Start to Worry That the Party Is Ending
New York Times 03/22/2008
Frugality Forged in Today's Recession Has Potential to Outlast ItWall Street Journal 04/06/2009
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