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Boom, Bust. Repeat.
Keywords:
Chancellor points out that economists from Irving Fisher in 1929 to Ben Bernanke in the mid-1990's have often played the role of academic shills during each successive period of "This Time its Different, " claiming that there was some new event, technology, or innovation, that justified higher valuations of assets and higher institutional debt levels. He quotes Walter Bagehot who says about merchants and bankers of his day-" they fancy the prosperity they see will last always, that it is only the beginning of a greater prosperity." The significance of the book is that it suggests an hypothesis that is quite different from the general idea in 2011 that there won't be a protracted period of slow or marginal growth after a bubble of this nature. Because the bubble is also in other countries, in countries of the euro-zone, China, Turkey, Brazil, and other countries, the situation takes a much longer time to heal.
Reviews of "This Time is Different" by Rogoff and Reinhart
01/21/2008
Boom, bust cycles, with high indebtedness, asset bubbles, and unsustainable current account deficits are followed by long periods of slow or nonexistent growth say Rogoff and Reinhart in their new book. This raises questions about the now current hypothesis that economic recovery will take place in 2011-2013. As the book's title suggests there are long periods in history that show this and it is gaining in credibility as the column by David Wessel in the Wall Street Journal July 21,2011, suggests.
Grouped Articles
Seminal Economic Paper on Debt Draws Criticism
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2013
New York Times 04/18/2013
Spreadsheet Slips Not Economists' Only Problem
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2013
How to Fix the Economy: An Expert Panel
BusinessWeek 09/16/2010
What Other Financial Crises Tell Us
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2009
New York Times 03/01/2009
Imbalances in the global economy that will take time to correct- the situation in the U.S., Europe and emerging markets in 2012-2013
05/05/2008
The perception that "this time is different" is a typical behavioural reaction in history to to financial crises studied by Rogoff and Reinhart. Economic weakness is part of the mechanism for correcting global imbalances which happens over a number of years.
Linked Articles
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2008
Wall Street Journal 10/09/2009
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