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Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch
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The International Energy Agency sees a shortfall of 12.5 million barrels a day when it compares the needed 37.5 million barrels a day by 2015 with the planned supply increases showing 25 million barrels a day. A lot depends on the assumptions and what the 37.5 million barrels a day is based on. Does it account for a slowdown in the world economy and a drive for fuel efficiency and conservation habits by 2015? How much of this is reflected in the numbers? And on the planned increases of 25 million barrels a day- does it account for increases that may be planned in 2009 and 2010 in response to prices above $150 a barrrel which is expected? The IEA has a team of 25 analysts working on the forecasts but it gets no cooperation from Saudi Arabia about its individual fields production, and Venezuela, Iran and China also keep their information a secret. This makes supply forecasting a difficult business. IEA uses IHS Inc a data provider, USA Geologic Survey, oil and service companies information and national petroleum councilds information.
How new technologies and shale oil changed a world of $150 per barrel upside down- predictions of $150 a barrel by IEA for 2015 in 2007
05/22/2008
Forecasting is a difficult business. New technologies can turn any business upside down. In 2007 the IEA predicted a huge shortfall in oil supplies to meet demand and surging prices over $150 a barrel, as outlined by Neil King in the WSJ that year. Oil supplier countries that depended on ever higher prices face severe economic crisis with oil prices at $50 a barrel in 2015.
Grouped Articles
Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2008
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2011
OPEC’s Problem: There Is No Minister of Shale
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2015
IHS Energy Associates's Yergin sees shale technologies changing the energy business by 2020, and IEA misses this completely
05/22/2008
Long term forecasting is a difficult business. IEA's 2015 forecast missed the situation in 2015 completely. Yergin was right but did not see how fast this would happen with oil prices down to $50 per barrel in 2015 and prices at the pump below $2.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2011
Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch
Wall Street Journal 05/22/2008
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