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As the market in larger cities matures, the market in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities is where most of the growth is expected in China's market. An expanding middle class is one source of buyers. One forecast is for 51% of Chinese families having disposable income of 106,000 yuan to 229,000 yuan or between $17,000 and $37,000 by 2020, according to McKinsey. There were only 6% in that income range in 2010, showing how skewed the income distribution was, and why the growth of luxury cars has benefitted BMW, Benz and GM. A new generation of younger buyers is another source of growth- Nissan's chief planning officer, Andy Palmer estimates the youth market at 240 million. This group is being called the Transformers generation. A big surge in buying for SUV's has helped companies such as Ford Motor Company. Benz and Ford plan to add new dealerships, with Benz planning dealerships in 40 new cities and opening 100 new stores in 2014. Audi is planning a new certified used car program to keep used car resale values high....

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

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The northeastern region of Brazil, the poorest region of Brazil, has benefitted from the economic expansion in Brazil. The region's GDP went up by 4.2% a year for the last ten years compared to 3.6% for Brazil. Bolsa Familia, President Lula's anti-poverty programme has benefitted the northeast, but the Getulio Vargas research institute shows three quarters of growth coming from earnings and expansion of export based agriculture in soyabeans and other products and from mining export industries. Projects in the northeast include development of the port and industrial area around Suape. A petrochemical plant, a shipyard and a Petrobras refinery, are under construction. A new railway will link Suape to the interior. Much of the development is for export industries in soyabeans and iron ore, and for the rail and port infrastructure that supports these exports to China. As a result the development looks similiar to what is happening in Australia with the huge expansion in rail and port infrastructure in that country to support iron ore and other mining exports to China. Any slow down in China will affect Brazil as the IMF has recently warned, because of an overdependence on commodity exports to China. Alexandre Rands of local Datametrica consultancy points to this when he says that infrastructure booms while helpful are not enough to sustain development. Big firms train the workers they need which is how Brazilian companies cope with a weak educational system. Schools in the northeast are however not getting the financial support to improve education, a situation that affects Brazil as a whole, but is even more evident in the northeast....

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The International Energy Agency estimates that a price of $100 a barrel would mean U.S. imports of oil at $385 billion, and European Union imports of $375 billion. This is $80 billion in addition spending on oil imports for the U.S. and $76 billion for the E.U., compared to 2010. The impact of a $20 increase in the price of a barrel of oil translates into a 50 cent increase in price per gallon at the gasoline pump. Economic estimates show a drop of 0.5% in GDP growth for the U.S. resulting from such a price increase of $20 per barrel.

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Investors in China fear that the overheated economy and property bubbles, may see a sharp turn with excessive tightening of monetary policy. China rebounded quickly after the 2008 crisis, but did this with a huge stimulus and by encouraging excessive lending levels. Some of this local government lending is suspected to have gone into low quality projects with the danger of bad loans. Inflation was 2.8% in April, and as lending tightens the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 16% in the last month. The crisis in Europe, the extremely short 2-3 month horizon of mainland Chinese investors, the excessive supply of shares- attempts to raise $74 billion in share issuance in mainland and Hong Kong markets and an IPO of $30 billion for Agricultural Bank of China- all put pressure on stocks. OECD index of leading indicators for March 2010 show a drop from February, and the Chinese economy grew 11.9% in the first quarter 2010.

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As David Ignatius points out in his trip to China, the China of post 2010 is a lot of things depending on who you talk to in China- cocky, scared, anxious. He comes away perplexed by the range of questions that come up in his mind. The wealth of the coastal cities is stunning, and at the same time as the leaders insist China is still a poor country with deep regional imbalances, and what is less mentioned, the rising inequality in society. How to pull it all together to make possible a transition to development that is evened out across all regions and sections of society and to allow freedom of expression, is a challenge for the new leadership of Xi Jinping in 2011.

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China's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, has approved $156 billion in new infrastructure projects, new subways, highways and other projects in recent weeks. The response is more carefully planned than the stimulus projects in 2009-2010, which are now seen as excessive response creating the prospect of bad loans in the banking system and causing inflation. The stimulus spread over 2 years, 2009 and 2010, was by government's initial estimates about 4 trillion yuan and this does not include additional local government spending as the government encouraged spending. This time the stimulus is about 1 trillion yuan or $158 billion, 2% of GDP, spread over 4 years, with projects going through careful review, according to Nomura economist Zhang Zhiwei. The Chinese government wants to avoid losing gains made in controlling a property bubble and holding down inflation.

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Friedman describes the lack of decisionmaking, initiative and courage in the Eurozone, India and China to tackle difficult problems. During his visit to India he describes the problems India faces. A serious problem with lack of good governance within the democratic framework. India also has a growing population that will soon surpass China's population, which makes the task of development that much harder, with the small steps India is taking to move forward not making a serious impact. Azim Premji, chairman of Wipro, described it this way: "There is a complete lack of decision-making among leaders in the government. If prompt action is not taken, the country will face a setback. You must appreciate how serious it is." Friedman sees a similiar situation in the eurozone countries as new governments are being formed in Greece and Italy by Papademos and Mario Monti, both technocrats from the European Union. This has the added complication because these experts have not been elected. The fact that they have support and goodwill is because of the failure of the political class in Greece and Italy. The failure of the political class in the U.S. is evident from the stymied negotiations over the deficit, and the lack of leadership from President Obama....

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Risks to China's banking system from the bond market in China. China's bond market has grown rapidly to 25.5 trillion yuan or $4.1 trillion yuan, especialy in the period following the stimulus. But it is not similiar to bond markets in developed countries, the U.S., Japan and France. It has a patchwork of regulators, is closed to foreign investors, and does not offer protections to investors. It also lacks an effective ratings system. Most bonds are held and traded by the banks, which concentrates the risks in the banking system. In developed countries the risks are spread out among investors. Bond markets offer the advantage of reducing dependence on banks for lending but with banks holding most of the bonds in China, including that of local governments, the risks if bond issuers default are concentrated in the banking system.

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The huge risks the misallocated stimulus capital from real estate speculation poses for the Chinese economy. China's government rapidly expanded lending after the 2008 global financial crisis. One estimate is that about 10 trillion yuan in new loans were made in 2009, over twice the amount of 2008, expanding the loan portfolio and money supply by one third. A major problem is vacant homes as Chinese put their money in second homes as an investment. Chinese are not investing in the stock market because of the volatility, and with the low yields in bonds and banks money is going into real estate. According to a Morgan Stanley economist, about 25-30% of private commercial and housing space is vacant. This happens just as middle class Chinese are being priced out of the housing market. Prices went up by 12% in the housing market this year according to the China National Bureau of Statistics. Couples wanting to leave their parent's homes find it difficult to do so. It was the topic for a Chinese TV series "Dwelling Narrowness." ...

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Class of 1977 was first after the Cultural revolution. In 1977 China held its first competitive national university entrance examination since 1965. A period of 12 years of the cultural revolution till 1977 were a lost decade in terms of education and getting the best minds and training them for careers in various fields for development and modernization. The year 1977 with the reinstatement of university entrance exams was remarkable in the outpouring of energy as young people prepared for entrance exams in a period of a few weeks. Textbooks were hard to find, for over ten years most had no schooling and worked in rural areas doing farming work. Students scrambled to find teachers to guide them. 273,000 were admitted to universities that year- only 4.7% of the the students taking the test. In comparison 58% of nine million students in 2007 were admitted to universities three decades later in 2007. Li Keqiang is one of these students who worked really hard to get into Peking University. He is the new prime minister, part of the new generation of leaders in China. Others include Zhou Qiang, governor of Hunan province, Wang Yi, party secretary of Foreign Affairs Ministry, and Jin Liqun, vice president of the Asian Development Bank, filmmakers Yimou and Kaige. and the writer Chen Cun. ...

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Former World Bank chief Zoellick points to the need for investments in human capital and productivity improvements in emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil to overcome the problem of slow growth in 2013.

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Prof. Scott Kennedy of the Research center for Chinese Politics and Business, voices concerns of experts who think that the $585 billion stimulus and the doubling of lending this year, increase in exports by a third last month, all point to an economy that is expanding too quickly. Kennedy says that no one defies economic laws, that eventually endless growth can get get you in trouble. The concern is whether the overexpansion of credit and the size of the stimulus may have led to overreaction in stimulus spending. People's Daily newspaper of China said that China's leaders are moving much faster than leaders of developed nations. But the flip side of this is that in the rush to increase spending there may be a lot of wasteful spending resulting in many bad loans a few years from now.

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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China's state run companies constitute about 45% of China's economy, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission. This includes banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petrochemical Corp. or Sinopec Group, and China Mobile.

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According to a report from China's Environment Ministry for the first half of 2013, only 4 cities met the acceptable air quality standards. The national grade 2 standard in China is for 35 micrograms per cubic meter for levels of airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrograms in diameter. WHO standard is for 25 micrograms per cubic meter in a 24 hour period. The 4 cities with acceptable air qualty out of 74 cities monitored by the Environment Ministry are Lhasa in Tibet, island city Haikou, coastal town Zhoushan, and Pearl River Delta city of Huizhou.

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The annual report on China by the IMF points to a diminishing margin of safety and higher risks for delays in needed economic changes from earlier infrastructure and construction focussed policies which neglected Chinese consumers and savers. The IMF pointed to risks from the shadow banking system and the real estate bubble that need to be addressed.