Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs

03/08/2016

By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.

Linked Articles

How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016

Holman W. Jenkins Jr., Holman, W., Jenkins, Jr.

The damage done at Yahoo with failed acquisitions, flawed news strategy investments, followed by costcutting that led to low morale and departure of mobile engineer talent

01/10/2016

A series of bad moves by CEO Marissa Mayer leads to costcutting, layoffs and departure of mobile engineers to rivals Facebook and Google, depriving Yahoo of talent in the mobile business. The internet business is now up for sale with Verizon, Britain's Daily Mail bidding for it, and investor Starboard Value hedge fund pushing for the sale.

Linked Articles

Yahoo’s got millions of users, but it’s still in decline. What went wrong? - The Washington Post

Washington Post 04/20/2016

Elizabeth Dwoskin, Elizabeth, Dwoskin

New York Times 01/10/2016

Vindu Goel, Vindu, Goel

2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.

09/09/2015

The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.

Linked Articles

The Bush Growth Plan

Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015

Editorial

New York Times 09/09/2015

Alan Rappeport, Alan, Rappeport, Matt Flegenheimer, Matt, Flegenheimer

Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.

05/02/2015

Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.

Linked Articles

Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money

New York Times 05/04/2015

Stephen Castle, Stephen, Castle

New York Times 05/02/2015

Eric Lichtblau, Eric, Lichtblau

Deep differences in 2015 between Alexis Tsipras of Syriza and the Merkel government in Germany on debt forgiveness and the bailouts for Greece

01/26/2015

The deep differences between Greeks and Merkel operate at two levels. On the level of austerity policies Greece shares the view with other EU countries, the governments of Hollande in France and Renzi in Italy that austerity is not the best course for the eurozone. This view is also shared by people in Spain facing unemployment exceeding 20%, though the government of Rajoy in Spain like that of Samaras in Greece lived with the austerity policies with some changes. At this level there is also support from within Merkel's coalition government from Social Democrats. The other level of deep differences is on debt forgiveness and bailouts where Greece has to find its own way out in negotiations hoping that the EU and the IMF will agree to make concessions based on action taken by Syriza to ensure prudence in fianncial management. On issues such as minimum wage one would expect Syriza to be firm and make concessions where the hardship does not fall on the poorer and working class, winning support from the Social Democrats in Merkel's coalition. Beyond the symbolic moves and posturing the actual negotiations are likely to take into account the eurozone's need for help on the fiscal side desired by the ECB's Draghi to support monetary easing to fight deflation, and the need to keep the eurozone intact at a sensitive time. Syriza for its part is aware that a majority of Greeks favor staying in the eurozone.

Linked Articles

Greece’s new prime minister wants Germany to pay for Nazi war crimes - The Washington Post

Washington Post 01/26/2015

Ishaan Tharoor, Ishaan, Tharoor

Washington Post 01/27/2015

Griff Witte, Griff, Witte

The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015

12/18/2014

A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.

Linked Articles

Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Gregory White, Gregory, White, Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, James Marson, James, Marson

Lufthansa low cost carrier Eurowings and Air France-KLM low cost carrier Transavia in 2015- an effort to setup separate airlines to remain competitive

09/28/2014

Linked Articles

Lufthansa Chief Carsten Spohr Defends Airline’s No-Frills Push

New York Times 12/08/2014

Nicola Clark, Nicola, Clark

New York Times 09/28/2014

Nicola Clark, Nicola, Clark

Low growth, the ambiguity of market signals, and the U.S. stock market in 2014

08/27/2014

Linked Articles

Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall?

Wall Street Journal 08/28/2014

Burton Malkiel, Burton, Malkiel

Wall Street Journal 08/27/2014

Willliam Galston, Willliam, Galston

Questions about whether justice and accountability were accomplished in the U.S. Justice Department's settlement with Credit Suisse

05/19/2014

A WSJ editorial and a separate piece in the NYT question the assumption that justice and accountability were achieved in the U.S. government's settlement with Credit Suisse. The nagging question- is Attorney General Holder simply burnishing his image after failing to establish accountability and justice following the 2008 global financial crisis, which dealt a serious blow to America's middle class. Collective wrongdoing starts with individual actions, and holding individuals responsible establishes accountability, so that the public is protected from future actions of this nature. Somewhere since the crisis this principle has been lost in the Obama administration. A churn in management for failures is considered healthy for other American companies, and healthy for free enterprise, readers are likely to wonder why this is not so for the banks.

Linked Articles

Credit Suisse Pleads Guilty in Felony Case

New York Times 05/19/2014

Ben Protess, Ben, Protess, Jessica Silver Greenberg, Jessica, Silver Greenberg

Wall Street Journal 05/21/2014

Editorial

High level of U.S. part-time workers of about 7 million in 2014 and Federal Reserve chairman Yellen's policy

04/01/2014

Linked Articles

Elevated Level of Part-Time Employment: Post-Recession Norm?

Wall Street Journal 11/13/2014

Nick Timiraos, Nick, Timiraos

Wall Street Journal 04/01/2014

Pedro Nicolai Da Costa, Pedro, Nicolai, Da, Costa, Jon Hilsenrath, Jon, Hilsenrath

Russia as emerging market (1) - declining currency and stagflation

01/17/2014

Declining growth characterizes all emerging markets. High reserves in Russia and Brazil separate the two countries from Argentina and Turkey where foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to prevent sharp declines in the currrency. Russia also has a low budget deficit. The foreign investment climate in Russia and India has deteriorated reducing capital inflows for modernizing the economy in India and diversifying the economy in Russia.

Linked Articles

Red Alert on Russia Is Premature

Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014

Richard Barley, Richard, Barley

Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, Paul Hannon, Paul, Hannon

Low wages for workers at retail branches of banks and fast-food retail outlets

12/04/2013

Linked Articles

Low bank wages costing the public millions, report says - The Washington Post

Washington Post 12/04/2013

Danielle Douglas, Danielle, Douglas

Washington Post 12/04/2013

Michael Fletcher, Michael, Fletcher