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India's foreign relations in 2018 after the Wuhan Summit - a close relationship with the U.S. balanced by good relations with China and Russia
06/05/2018
Wuhan Summit
Linked Articles
Chinese, Indian Leaders Seek Harmony After a Fractious Year
WSJ 04/26/2018
Why India avoids alliancesThe Economist 06/02/2018
Corporate America's choices between corporate buybacks and increasing stagnant wages/making capital investments in 2018
03/01/2018
Linked Articles
Boom in Share Buybacks Renews Question of Who Wins From Tax Cuts
WSJ 03/01/2018
Opinion | Corporate America Is Suppressing Wages for Many WorkersThe New York Times 02/28/2018
Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Trade Representative and the effort to renegotiate NAFTA, ensure a level playing field in international trade
05/19/2017
In a 2010 article Lighthizer described the disadvantages for the U.S. in existing trade practices, especially with China. We covered Lighthizer at that time. In 2017 Lighthizer takes up the arduous task of renegotiating NAFTA, and ensuring a level playing field in U.S. trade relations with Germany, China, Japan, and other countries.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/12/2010
Trump Sends Nafta Renegotiation Notice to CongressThe New York Times 05/18/2017
How U.S. economic growth and interest rates can play out in ways contrary to what is expected for 2017-2019
12/14/2016
Linked Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the WayThe New York Times 12/13/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Goldman Sachs and U.S. regulators in 2015-2017- cutting risks in trading activity and private equity/hedge fund investments following the excessive leveraging of the 2008 financial crisis
08/04/2016
Stronger regulation takes shape through the efforts of Daniel Tarullo at the Federal Reserve and the LISSC. The situation with Goldman Sachs, one of the highly leveraged banks during the 2008 financial crisis still hoping to earn high profits with large trading activities.
Linked Articles
At Goldman Sachs, Stress Test Results Could Endanger an Important Profit Source
New York Times 03/08/2015
Goldman Sachs Not Sure It Can Sell Private-Equity StakesWSJ 08/04/2016
The pause in the U.S. economy with the May 2016 U.S. jobs report showing 38,000 jobs added
06/06/2016
Krugman discusses the U.S. May 2016 jobs report from the Labor Department. He says it will be harder to come up with a response to the political uncertainty in an election year, especially now that rates are near zero.
Linked Articles
Sharp Fall in U.S. Hiring Saps Chance of Fed Rate Increase in June
The New York Times 06/03/2016
A Pause That DistressesThe New York Times 06/06/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Ford Motor's higher profits from larger vehicles in the U.S. and China in 2015- the redesigned F-150 pickup, SUV's, with higher fuel efficiency, lower gas prices and lower interest rates
07/29/2015
Linked Articles
GM, Ford, Flourish Out of the Limelight
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Ford Bets on Fancy PickupsWall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Economic changes in the first year of the Modi administration in India- groundwork for 2016-2018
05/23/2015
Linked Articles
Economist 05/23/2015
How to run a continentEconomist 05/23/2015
How the NASDAQ in 2015 has changed since 2000, and the change in the interest rate environment and inflation- critical factors in the new investment environment of 2015
04/24/2015
Linked Articles
Why This Old Bull Market May Not Be Ready to Die
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2015
The New Nasdaq Record, Set By a New NasdaqWall Street Journal 04/24/2015
Declining inflation and interest rate cuts in India in 2015
01/14/2015
Linked Articles
India’s Inflation Fight Pays Early Dividend
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2015
Suddenly, India Cuts Interest RatesNew York Times 01/14/2015
The case for a minimum wage for U.S. workers with families to support- how Australia approaches the issue taking into account the median wage
12/31/2014
Australia's minimum wage is 54% of the median wage, compared to 38% for the U.S., according to the OECD. Australia's wage setting body sets the minimum wage for workers over 20 years of age, and takes into account the median wage in the interest of fairness. Workers with families to support need the Australian minimum wage of 16.87 Australian dollars ($13 U.S.). All of this money goes into consumer spending providing an immediate boost to the economy.
Linked Articles
Australia Weighs Whether Its Minimum Wage Is Too High
Wall Street Journal 01/26/2015
States’ Minimum Wages Rise, Helping Millions of WorkersNew York Times 12/31/2014
Stable oil prices and low volatility in 2018- the result of U.S. shale oil supply stream and OPEC/Russia cuts
06/01/2018
This low volatility in oil prices is good for both producers and consumers, and shale oil from U.S. is a big part of this.
Linked Articles
How OPEC and Shale Have Squeezed Out Volatility in the Oil Market
WSJ 06/01/2018
The New Tech That Terrifies OPECWSJ 06/01/2018
China's credit ratings downgrade for rising debt in 2017 and the echoes of Japan in the 1980's
05/25/2017
Linked Articles
Moody’s Cuts Its China Rating for the First Time Since 1989
WSJ 05/24/2017
In Downgraded China, Echoes of Japan’s Boom and BustWSJ 05/24/2017
Republican House health care bill in 2017 and shift in priorities- $337 billion in savings, expected lower premiums, but leaving 14 million more uninsured in 2018
03/13/2017
A shift in priorities from the poor to the middle class- targeting lower premiums for people who have seen their premiums increase sharply, reducing the overall cost with savings of $337 billion, yet leaving 14 million more people uninsured.
Linked Articles
CBO Sees 24 Million More Uninsured, $337 Billion Deficit Cut in Coming Decade With GOP Health Plan
WSJ 03/13/2017
US health bill 'to leave 14m more uninsured' - BBC NewsBBC News 03/13/2017
Goldman Sachs and the Trump administration- Steven Mnuchin at Treasury and Gary Cohen at the National Economic Council
12/09/2016
Bank stocks are up with the election of Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs share price up 34%, with the push back against regulation of banks following the 2008 financial crisis.
Linked Articles
Goldman Sachs No. 2 Seen as a Top Economic Adviser to Trump
The New York Times 12/09/2016
Trump Plans to Name Steven Mnuchin as Treasury SecretaryWSJ 11/29/2016
Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families
08/10/2016
The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/19/2012
Paul Ryan beats outsider 'mini-Donald Trump' challenger in Wisconsin primaryThe Guardian 08/10/2016
How the few Oxford educated politicians forming an old boy's club and their infighting by 2016 led to the vote for Brexit
07/08/2016
How Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson, a few Oxford educated politicians put their narrow interests and party politics ahead of the interests of Britain and the interests of the European Union.
Linked Articles
British Politics Gives a Sense of Government by Old School Chums
The New York Times 07/07/2016
Theresa May, Long in Public Eye, Finds Herself Focus of Conservative RaceThe New York Times 07/05/2016
Assessment of U.S. president Obama's two terms in office 2008-2016 (1) - a declining middle class and a struggling working class
01/13/2016
Linked Articles
The Obama era has damaged liberalism - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/13/2016
A voice in the wildernessEconomist 01/19/2016
The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates
08/12/2015
China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.
Linked Articles
China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/12/2015
China’s Devaluation GambitWall Street Journal 08/12/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
The puzzle of U.S. job gains in 2014-2015 with tepid wage gains- a result of labor market slack not reflected in 5.5% unemployment rate, low productivity, low investment
03/07/2015
Linked Articles
Sluggish Productivity Hampers Wage Gains
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Brisk Jobs Growth Puts Focus on FedWall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Looking back at Hong Kong and China today and yesterday- China in 1842 and in 1945, nationalism and commercial interests of foreign powers
01/09/2015
A wariness with foreign powers in China stems from the influences left behind from the British commercial interests and the Japanese invasion of China. Compared to that period, the period of collaboration on an equal footing and playing field is is a short and recent one that has taken place for just three decades 1985-2015. Fears that the accelerated development in China could slow down without a strong central government, combine with the awareness of the need for western technology and open communications in today's global economy to accelerate the development, create in the Chinese mind a problem that needs to be tackled carefully to continue progress. Awareness of the huge inequalities and corruption in the rush towards modernization, need to tackle extensive contamination of air and water, and need for social security and healthcare for an aging population create a new urgency for careful policy making to sustain progress.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2015
‘China 1945,’ by Richard BernsteinNew York Times 01/09/2015
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