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The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Greece's referendum and the 3 year bailout of July 12, 2015- military spending, shipowners taxes, and cuts to pensions
07/10/2010
Greece's left Syriza government almost pulled the country out of the eurozone over pension cuts, even as military spending in Greece remained at 2.4% of GNP compared to close 1.4% for the EU average. Greece did not propose further cuts to military spending to bring the Greece ratio closer to that of Germany and other countries in Europe, raising questions about prudent spending. Which is why Greece sometimes has aspects of the surreal to people not just in Germany and Holland, but other parts of Europe, and outsiders. Under the reform proposal and bailout of July 12, 2015 following the "no" referendum, Greece's parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of the similiar cuts in pensions from an earlier EU proposal, with cuts of $300 million to the military spending by 2016. Greek shipowners will also pay taxes under the new bailout, negotiated by Greece with France's help when the referendum had damaged relations with the rest of the EU, particularly Germany with only 10% in polls willing to support any further concessions.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/11/2015
The Submarine Deals That Helped Sink GreeceWall Street Journal 07/10/2010
The paradox of low U.S. productivity growth holding back wages in 2015-2016 (2)- Apple, Google, Facebook and low productivity improvement since 2005
07/01/2010
Linked Articles
Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs
BusinessWeek 07/01/2010
The Mystery of Declining Productivity GrowthWall Street Journal 05/15/2015
Shiller, Charles Scwab and other experts on the nervousness of the individual investor.
05/14/2010
Charles Schwab says about 98% of individual investos are nervous in mid 2010. He questios whether safety an soundess mean anything anymore. Shillers Buy on Dips Index confirms Schwab's observations.
Linked Articles
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause OneNew York Times 05/14/2010
The public finances of France affect the credibility of the $1 trillon eurozone support package.
05/13/2010
How this affects Spain, Portugal, Italy and other countries facing financial crisis.
Linked Articles
French Cracks Are Showing in Euro-Zone Core
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Italy's debt fuels worriesWall Street Journal 05/14/2010
BP has a history of problems with quality systems and safety.
05/01/2010
Linked Articles
BP's Hayward Says Company Could Have Done More Disaster Preparation
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Drilling Down: A Troubled Legacy in OilWall Street Journal 05/01/2010
The inaction at GM 2009-2013 for the defective ignition switch recall and the inaction at Toyota for unintended acceleration recall
02/10/2010
GM's management lost track of quality issues that were buried at lower levels during the bankruptcy period. Toyota's management in the U.S. referred the NHTSA to quality managers in Japan who did not make the necessary effort to look into and address the problem. This shows that quality is not just a technical issue for the engineers and requires management atention at the highest levels, direct reporting to top managers. It also shows that quality problems never go away, will always be present, no matter how good you think you get. Small mistakes can be very costly as BP, TEPCO in the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Toyota, have shown in the recent past.
Linked Articles
General Motors Misled Grieving Families on a Lethal Flaw
New York Times 03/24/2014
Safety Agency Scrutinized as Toyota Recall GrowsNew York Times 02/10/2010
Shiller sees risks of a double dip recession from sudden events that further damage confidence.
01/31/2010
Shillers definition of adoubel dip recession is one in which unemployment stays stubbornly high for some years and a second recession occurs before a recovery is achieved from the first one. Statistical models and confidence indexes are poor at grasping and presenting this.
Linked Articles
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
Stuck in Neutral? Reset the MoodNew York Times 01/31/2010
Skepticism about the Federal Reserve's ability to catch financial bubbles and to take action.
01/04/2010
The Fed's credibility for acting against bubbles in the housing and stock markets has been hurt by recent experience.
Linked Articles
If the Fed Missed This Bubble, Will It See a New One?
New York Times 01/06/2010
Fed chief Bernanke urges better financial regulation to prevent crisesWashington Post 01/04/2010
Shrinking news coverage and fewer journalists in the newspaper shift to digital online
11/25/2009
It says a lot about the changes underway in the newspaper industry when a paper like the Washington Post closes its bureaus in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, and covers the news there with travelling reporters. As local newspapers such as the New Orleans Times- Picayune move to three editions a week and an online edition, the number of journalists overing the area around New Orleans will shrink by a third in 2012. Advance Publications which runs the New Orleans paper will do the same for its papers in Huntsville and Birmingham i in Alabama.
Linked Articles
New Orleans Times-Picayune to limit printing to three days per week - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/25/2012
Washington Post shutters last U.S. bureausWashington Post 11/25/2009
David Rieff provides insights on why all developing countries, Mexico, Brazil, India, Indonesia and China need to take child malnutrition seriously
10/11/2009
The Indian lower house of parliament passed a Food Security bill in August 2013. Rieff says China made serious progress to reduce malnutrition from over 21% for children under 5 years to around 7% today after 1990. In India malnutrition for children under 5 years is above 40%. There is a lot that developing coutnries can learn from each other in this area including the Bolsa Familia program in Brazil which uses the concept of improving vaccination for children and school attendance as requirements for subsidy payments to the poor. Mexico and Indonesia have different versions of programs to help the poorer sections of society. The problem is acute in India because of indifference induced by caste and other considerations and the high level of malnutrition for children. Rief says how good is ademographic dividend when many of these children are permanently and silently impaired by malnutrition by the age of three. India's Congress party leader, Sonia Gandhi, put it differently in parliament: "What is our responsibility to these people?"
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/11/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
Shift to Social Democrats as German chancellor loses public support in Germany.
09/28/2009
The main reason the Social Democrats did poorly in the 2009 elections in Germany says an expert is because they driftd aay from their working class base with their economic reforms. Now there is a shift back to the Social Democrats and Greens under the Christian Democratic government of chancellor Merkel.
Linked Articles
Merkel Looks to Recharge Her Ratings
New York Times 07/21/2010
Germany's Long Road to ReformWall Street Journal 09/28/2009
Health care spending as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (3)
07/24/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
A grim diagnosis for our ailing U.S. health care system - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/28/2011
What the U.S. and other eurozone countries can learn from Germany to reduce unemployment (2)
07/29/2010
The "kurzarbeit" program for job retention in Germany and how it is beginning to be applied in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 11/21/2011
The Price of Saving Jobs in GermanyBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
America, Jobs and Competitiveness- (2) "Getting it right", the legacy of Andy Grove at Intel Corp. and Jeffrey Immelt at GE
07/01/2010
Linked Articles
Jeffrey R. Immelt - A blueprint for keeping America competitive
Washington Post 01/21/2011
Andy Grove: How America Can Create JobsBusinessWeek 07/01/2010
Andy Grove of Intel and a reminder about Silicon Valley's role now missing role as a serious innovator and job creator at home
07/01/2010
Andy Grove reminded Silicon Valley about the dangers of forgetting manufacturing's important role in the U.S. in 2010. This is even more true today with the working class lagging behind in this recovery. He asked at the time what kind of society are we creating with professionally employed workers and lots of unemployed. It reminded him of 1932 with troops holding bayonets facing unemployed people outside the White House, and of his days in Hungary in the 1956 uprising. Grove also called for serious innovation which he did not see happening at the time in Silicon Valley.
Linked Articles
Andy Grove’s Warning to Silicon Valley
New York Times 03/25/2016
Andy Grove: How America Can Create JobsBusinessWeek 07/01/2010
The maintenance failure for the safety valve and the switch controlling it in the BP explosion.
05/13/2010
A dead battery in asuper-critical switch and hydraulics leaks that made inoperative a crucial safety valve that was the last barrier between safety and an explosion in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico led to the accident on the BP oil rig.
Linked Articles
Safety Valves Had a Dead Battery, Investigators Find
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
BP's Hayward Says Company Could Have Done More Disaster PreparationWall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Germany's rescue plan for Greece.
05/03/2010
Germany finally cleared a plan to aid Greece after weeks of delay that created tension in global financial markets with Greece being shut out of capital markets.
Linked Articles
Germany Clears Rescue for Greece
New York Times 05/03/2010
The Greek Economy ExplainedWall Street Journal 05/07/2010
Hope and reality in Nigeria (2)- President Goodluck Jonathan 2011-2015, and President Muhammadu Buhari 2015-2019
02/20/2010
The hope of so many young Nigerians rest on Buhari getting things right and restoring confidence in government and the management of the economy after four years of the Jonathan adminsitration.
Linked Articles
Muhammadu Buhari Defeats Goodluck Jonathan in Nigeria Election
Wall Street Journal 04/01/2015
An Accidental Leader Stirs Hopes in NigeriaNew York Times 02/20/2010
Long standing reputations for quality and safety damaged by failures in quality systems at J&J McNeil and Toyota.
02/02/2010
Both Toyota and J&J Mcneil unit responded poorly and with long time lags to federal agencies that supervise safety for their products. Both companies took along time to investigate the consumer complaints, one for faulty brake pedal and the other for musty odor from Tylenol Arthritis caplet bottles.
Linked Articles
Maker of Tylenol Explains Actions Taken to Alleviate Musty Smell of Pills
New York Times 03/17/2010
Obama Administration Says It Is 'Not Finished With Toyota'Wall Street Journal 02/02/2010
Resignation of Japan's Hatoyama on the Okinawa issue and the Obama administration.
01/07/2010
Senior foreign policy expert Joseph Nye, Jr. called for patient approach to Japanese Premier Hatoyama on the Oknawa issue. This did not happen as Obama kept Hatoyama at arms-length and no compromise was reached. The implications of all this as the Democratic party is still only 8 months in office.
Linked Articles
Ties to U.S. Played Role in Downfall of Japanese Leader
New York Times 06/02/2010
An Alliance Larger Than One IssueNew York Times 01/07/2010
From online retail to selling consumer goods - different ways of selling in Nigeria, rural India, rural Brazil and other emerging markets
12/12/2009
Linked Articles
In Nigeria, Rising Dreams of Web Commerce
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2012
P.& G. Sees the World as Its ClientNew York Times 12/12/2009
The crying need for civilian aid and rural development programs in Afghanistan
10/18/2009
Commander Adams describes his experience in Khost province of Afghanistan. Dexter Filkins describes his experience about an irrigation canal that has been neglected through the long years of war.
Linked Articles
Afghanistan Doesn't Need More Troops
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2009
Stanley McChrystal’s Long WarNew York Times 10/18/2009
The legacy of the two Clintons- putting behind old conflicts from the Balkans, to Russia and Turkey
10/10/2009
The role of Hillary in the entry of Russia to the World Trade Organization, in the Armenia-Turkey accords, follows the work of Bill Clinton in settling the Balkan conflict through special envoy Holbrooke. Bill Clinton had a special ability to select talented individuals and work with them in humility to promote peace- in the UK-Ireland conflict, and in the former Yugoslavia. Hillary Clinton did this with sheer tenacity of effort and working with humility with public servants who worked for Bill Clinton.
Linked Articles
Hillary Clinton: Trade With Russia Is a Win-Win
Wall Street Journal 06/19/2012
Armenia, Turkey Reach AccordWashington Post 10/10/2009
Health care cost increases as a critical part of the U.S. deficit problem and why it defies solution (1)
07/24/2009
Linked Articles
Obama's Health Expert Gets Political
Wall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Four Deficit Myths and a Frightening FactWall Street Journal 01/19/2012
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