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Strength Is Weakness
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Krugman points out the risks for the U.S. economy as the U.S. loses export competitiveness with the euro reaching parity with the dollar. The huge shift from $1.50 to the dollar at one point to parity gives Europe a sudden strong boost. Europe needs the boost to escape a deflationary trap, and there is little that can be done for capital flows and exchange rates, says Krugman. He points out that many Federal Reserve governors were clueless of the impact this could have on U.S. growth, sanguinely assuming the U.S. would boost growth in 2015. Better says Krugman for the Fed to be very careful about raising rates at a time when wage growth is sluggish, and inflation low.
Krugman on how the stronger dollar and the weaker euro will hurt U.S. export competitiveness and growth in 2015-2016
03/13/2015
Europe will export some of its problems to the U.S. in 2015-2016, as the euro goes to parity with the dollar and makes European products more competitive with U.S. products in global markets. This will hurt U.S. growth. Yet it is important for the U.S. that Europe get out of its deflationary trap, and as for exchange rates and flows of capital this is how the global economy works with little that the U.S. can do about it, says Krugman. He believes many Federal Reserve governors were clueless about the impact of this on the U.S. growth in their March meeting as they pushed for higher rates, merely assuming that the situation it will turn out positively for the U.S. Krugman says that with growth in wages sluggish and low inflation the Federal Reserve needs to be very careful as it considers raising interest rates.
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