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Most Aid to Athens Circles Back to Europe
Keywords:
About $229 billion, three fourth of Greece's debt, is now held by the European Central Bank, the IMF and the European Commission. This is taxpayer money and the governments are making sure that they get back bailout loans in the form of interest payments. About two thirds of the $177 billion given to Greece as bailout loans since May 2010 actually came back to the ECB, IMF, and the EC, in the form of interest. The ECB is keen on recovering taxpayer money. The money route has been setup with an escrow account in Greece for bailout loans so that interest payments get paid, and this money cannot be used for any other purpose. Banking experts say this is a practice in risk management, and with Greece's poor record in finances the controls have been put in place to recover money the ECB invested in Greek bonds in an effort to calm nervous financial markets and now gets about 10% in annual interest payment. Under earlier debt restructuring for private creditors to Greece a haircut of over 50% on Greek bonds was taken, with the ECB insisting on receiving full payment. If Greece were to repudiate the loans under a new elected government losses would have to be taken by the ECB, IMF, and EC, and by private creditors. The ECB has Greek bonds in the range of $44 billion to $69 billion, and the European Financial Stability Facility $88 billion, by some estimates. Greece's exit from the euro would result in losses on these bonds .for the ECB and the EFSF, ultimately European taxpayers. It would also make the new bonds to private creditors under the restructuring of little value which is why European banks would not favor that outcome. Greece's tax receipts at some point, possibly 2013, would exceed basic operating expenses of the government, at which point a future Greek government might decide to exit the euro and stop interest payments on debt in its best interest.
A warning light for Greece to exit the eurozone and return to the drachma to restore competitiveness and growth 2011-2012
05/26/2010
Greece needs to lower prices by 31% just to get to the level of Turkey, says the head of the Ifo research institute in Germany, Wener Sinn. Experts fear a breakdown in civil order inside Greece if deflation at this level occurs with Greece still using the euro. Hollande, the Socialist party candidate in France, also expressed similiar concerns, as reported in the New York Times, calling it a breakup in European governance that followed the breakdown in Greek governance. Sinn says the bondholders are overly exaggerating the risks of a breakup in the eurozone if Greece exits the euro.
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Two thirds of the $177 billion in bailout loans to Greece since May 2010 from the IMF, ECB and EC actually went back to these creditors. The money route was setup in circular fashion with escrow accounts in Athens so that the money went right back as interest payments on debt.
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Francois Hollande says the EU mishandled the Greece crisis. Greece should have been handled as an extraordinary situation with earlier debt restructuring from public and private creditors to bring Greece's debt down to 60% of GDP. The current coordinated plan of the EU, ECB and the IMF only brings debt down to 120% of GDP in 2020. Hollande said he understands the need to reduce the budget deficit with cuts but without growth it can't work.
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