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A Greek Exit? Euro Zone May Be Ready
Keywords:
The exit of Greece from the eurozone would cost Germany $127 billion or 3% of GDP, according to economists at a German bank. Francois Baroin, departing finance minister of France, estimated the cost for France to be $50 billion, or 3% of GDP. The costs in terms of disorderly exit in how it impacts Spain and Italy in financial markets is less certain.
Preparation for Greece's exit from the euro currency and return to the drachma- November 2011-2012
07/01/2011
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Greece needs to lower prices by 31% just to get to the level of Turkey, says the head of the Ifo research institute in Germany, Wener Sinn. Experts fear a breakdown in civil order inside Greece if deflation at this level occurs with Greece still using the euro. Hollande, the Socialist party candidate in France, also expressed similiar concerns, as reported in the New York Times, calling it a breakup in European governance that followed the breakdown in Greek governance. Sinn says the bondholders are overly exaggerating the risks of a breakup in the eurozone if Greece exits the euro.
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Germany would lose $127 billion or 3% of GDP, and France about $50 billion or 3% of its GDP if Greece exited the eurozone. The concern about orderly acceptance of the exit without affecting Spain and Italy in financial markets remains.
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The IMF says Greece is still "accident-prone" after the dept swap with private bondholders in March 2012. Its competitiveness problem may take a decade to resolve.
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Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, on why the European Union will endure regardless of the outcome in Greece
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Mario Monti tells the editors of the New York Times in an interview, that the EU will endure because it was in the interests of Germany. Competitive devaluations if countries left the EU would have an enormous harmful impact on Germany. Germany send two thirds of its exports to EU countries. Monti says even if Greece were to exit the euro the EU will endure. The vision of a united Europe continues to shape its politics.
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