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December Slump In Vehicle Sales Augurs Ill for '08
Keywords:
Tags: Automobiles,
How is it that GM would predict sales close to 16 million when no one else sees that happening. Is it just optimistic, even in the face of last years forecast which also stumbled badly with no improvement in the second half as expected. Instead GM closes the year 2007 with sales down 6% over 2006. And much worse numbers for Ford which saw 12% decline, and Chrysler a 3% decline. Chrysler continues to sell to rental fleets. Toyota's and Honda's sales grew by 3.1 and 2.8% respectively. But this year 2008 Toyota doesn't expect to do well with only a 1% increase. Nissan and Hyundai are in the same straits as the Big Three American makers in inventory of cars and sell to rental car fleets. In terms of inventory per point of market share Nissan has excess production capacity and more cars as inventory, about 39,000 per point of Nissan's market share similar to the Big Three. Toyota and Honda have 28,000 per point of their market share.
Economic and sales forecasts in the boom years before the 2008 financial crisis, and well into the downturn, that lost objectivity and analytical focus.
07/14/2005
How objectivity and analytical focus was lost as company and association management in the housing, auto and other industries, and their economists tried to believe and maintain the status quo. A similiar situation at the US central bank, the IMF, and other locations. The tendency to be upbeat and ignore emerging danger signs requiring a more realistic assessment. And the frequent revisions as a result of this.
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Is the narrow cash for clunkers program a missed opportunity to give a desperately needed boost to the car industry
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The narrow profile for the cash for clunkers program in the USA makes the customers people who are economically challenged in the midst of a deep recession, making it different from the German program that boosted sales by 40% in 2009 over 2008. WIth only $1 billion for the American program and 5 billion euros in Germany the American program is also too small to make an impact.
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Sinking demand in 2008 and the Detroit automakers future.
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Sinking demand is casting a long shadow on the future of Detroit automakers, not the sinking demand of the 3rd quarter which was bad, but the sinking demand for the 4th quarter 2008 and in 2009. Something that GM and Ford with their optimistic forecasts of 13-14 million vehicles for 2009 as stated in theSenate on November 18, 2008 by their CEO's, may have missed as sales may be in the neighborhood of 10 million or lower in 2009.
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High oil prices in 2008 and again in 2011. The danger this poses for the Detroit automakers as they continue to depend on SUV's and larger vehicles for revenues and profits. Even with the big strides in making small cars, a Chevy Cruze or a Ford Fiesta is still not as popular as a Honda Civic or a Toyota Prius, says one analyst.
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Hyundai in the U.S. market.
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Hyundai made great strides in the U.S. market in 2009-2013.
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Shifts away from larger vehicles in the American auto industry. A significant shift was underway in the US auto industry by the middle of 2008 towards fuel efficient automobiles as gasoline prices went over $4.00 per gallon, and consumer net worth declined significantly with decline in housing and stock prices causing cuts in spending. The situation in 2008-2009 before the government led bailout and the planned bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler.
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Ford and Chrysler Unveil Their Redesigned Pickups
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Changes in public perception of Detroit auto companies and fuel efficiency in the 2006- 2008 period.
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Public perception changed in this period. Columnists like Friedman said in the NYT that "GM is more dangerous to America's future" and acting like a "crack dealer." This as GM was offering buyers of large low fuel efficiency vehicles gas capped at $1/99 per gallon. Ford offered free gas upto $1000 with aprepaid Master charge debit card, enough for 6000 miles. Were the automakers lagging behind changing conditions and not adapting to changing public perception, by fighting higher fuel efficiency standards in Congress. link to Hyundai where its technology executive says Hyundai can meet higher standards with new technology and not even counting hybrids in the picture.
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General Motors (GM) sales forecasting failure in 2008-2009 which aggravated the crisis leading to bankruptcy
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December Slump In Vehicle Sales Augurs Ill for '08
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Without a Hit Razr Sequel, Profit Drops for Motorola
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