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Chinese banks: Circular logic
Keywords:
China Investment Corporation, China's sovereign wealth fund is expected to issue upto 28 billion in bonds to help recapitalize China's state owned banks. These banks face the prospect of increasing bad loans as a result of the hectic pace of bank lending in 2009-2010. Loans guaranteed by muncipal governments are estimated at 7.7 trillion yuan, or 17% of overall lending, about 50% of these loans face uncertainty in the event of falling housing prices, and 25% are bad loans. The recent IPO of Agricultural Bank of China raised funds, but the environment for raising money in this way does not look good, as information is spreading that these banks face large loan losses. The bonds from CIC would be picked up by state controlled companies. Yet these state controlled companies are engaging in the real estate speculation, as reported by David Barboza of the New York Times and Peter Coy of Business Week. In a down cycle things could get much worse as a state sovereign fund is selling bonds, state controlled companies would buy these bonds, and state controlled banks are expected to be recapitalized making a complete circle.
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China Investment Corporation (CIC) plans and strategies
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China's sovereign wealth fund with about $70 billion of the $200 billion in the fund allocated for foreign investments mostly of the portfolio kind.
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Chinaâs Sovereign Wealth Fund Buys Shares in Major Banks
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One is a concern that China may like Japan in the 1980's is getting into a property and asset price bubble after aperiod of rapid industrialization and shifting of rural population to the cities. The risks of an overheating economy were growing with a 22% jump in a broad measure of money supply in March 2010.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change
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Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
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China's banking system in 2010-2015
01/12/2010
The effects of the stimulus spending binge and speculative behaviours of local governments and state owned companies, on the loans made by state owned banks.
Grouped Articles
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Wall Street Journal 05/24/2013
China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
China's Silver Linings Playbook
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2013
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
China Central Bank Warns Banks on Liquidity
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2013
Credit Warnings Offer World a Peek Into Chinaâs Secretive Banks
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Central Huijin, part of China Investment Corporation (CIC)
08/21/2010
Grouped Articles
Chinaâs Sovereign Wealth Fund Buys Shares in Major Banks
New York Times 10/10/2011
Low-Key Politician to Take Helm of China's $500 Billion Fund
Wall Street Journal 07/01/2013
Economist 08/21/2010
Central Huijin Raises $7.94 Billion in Bond Sale
Wall Street Journal 08/26/2010
Q&A: China Investment Corp.’s Wang Jianxi
Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
China's CIC Works on Funding Mechanism
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2012
Bubbles developing in many countries in 2010-2013
01/17/2009
China being the largest bubble developing in mid 2010. The other bubbles developing in Brazil, Canada, India, and Australia.
Grouped Articles
Central Bankers Hone Tools to Pop Bubbles
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Mom-and-Pop Investors Bolt Emerging Markets
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Canada Grapples With Housing Bubble Risk
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Where Will the Next Financial Bubble Be?
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China's looming asset price bubble in late 2009.
01/17/2009
The role of the yuan pegged to the dollar in all this. The need for action to let the currency appreciate now rather than later.
Grouped Articles
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Fixing a Perception Gap for the Underappreciated G-20
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An Accord (and Lessons) to Remember
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Economist 10/08/2009
Economist 10/08/2009
Three Hurdles for China in the Year of the Tiger
New York Times 12/30/2009
China Investment Corporation (CIC) and the funds needed to recapitalize China's state owned banks
08/21/2010
Linked Articles
China's CIC Works on Funding Mechanism
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2012
Economist 08/21/2010
China's sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation (CIC), and the decreasing prospects for buying eurozone bonds
08/21/2010
Linked Articles
China Rebuffs Hopes for Bailout
Wall Street Journal 09/26/2011
Economist 08/21/2010
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