Chancellor Merkel and listening to German public opinion reflected in state elections of 2016

09/20/2016

Here we argue that contrary to general media coverage in the NYT, WSJ, Economist, and German media, a year from now Merkel may be seen more positively. This is because Merkel has always listened to public opinion carefully, and has told the German public frankly what happened- that she and the German government were caught unprepared in the refugee crisis that came up in summer 2015.

Linked Articles

German politics is turning into a six-party system

The Economist 09/19/2016

DW.COM 09/19/2016

Udo Bauer / Ksb

The Donald Trump campaign for U.S. president in 2016- strategies from "The Art of the Deal"

02/25/2016

Thinking big embracing the entire electorate, using social media to the fullest, improvising often based on voter sentiment, commonsense approaches, worked for Trump in the Republican primaries in 2016. The failure of the other candidates to address issues of voter frustration, and splitting of the vote with many candidates, created the opportunity for Trump to succeed with his unconventional campaigning style coupled with a careful attention to what troubled voters.

Linked Articles

Donald Trump’s Campaign Blueprint: His Own Book

Wall Street Journal 03/03/2016

Monica Langley, Monica, Langley

Wall Street Journal 02/25/2016

Editorial

2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.

09/09/2015

The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.

Linked Articles

The Bush Growth Plan

Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015

Editorial

New York Times 09/09/2015

Alan Rappeport, Alan, Rappeport, Matt Flegenheimer, Matt, Flegenheimer

Japan's fighter pilot Harada's message of "never to forget," the new generation of leaders, and a public unaware of the horrors of war

04/03/2015

Harada and Noonan describe the problem today of a generation of leaders and public that were born following the Second World War, who have no knowledge of the horrors and the pain of that war. He has tried to keep the memory of that conflict and the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, by teaching Japanese children in a kindergarden so that a new generation does not forget.

Linked Articles

Retired Japanese Fighter Pilot Sees an Old Danger on the Horizon

New York Times 04/03/2015

Martin Fackler, Martin, Fackler

Wall Street Journal 04/04/2015

Peggy Noonan, Peggy, Noonan

The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015

12/18/2014

A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.

Linked Articles

Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Gregory White, Gregory, White, Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, James Marson, James, Marson

Shaile oil as a lasting factor for oil supplies beyond 2015- U.S. shale oil production likely to weather Saudi price cuts as technology advances

10/23/2014

Linked Articles

The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale

Economist 01/13/2015

Economist.Com

Wall Street Journal 10/23/2014

Mark P. Mills, Mark, P., Mills

Obama's second term- (5) the U.S. president's foreign policy failures in Syria and Iraq seen up close by Clinton and Panetta

08/11/2014

A Defense Secretary and Secretary of State in the Obama administration describe up close president Obama's failure to act at key moments in the crisis in Iraq and Syria. This has badly damaged the U.S. credibility and what it stands for in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

Linked Articles

A Rift in Worldviews Is Exposed as Clinton Faults Obama on Policy

New York Times 08/11/2014

Mark Landler, Mark, Landler

Wall Street Journal 10/07/2014

Felicia Schwartz, Felicia, Schwartz

Popular discontent with hosting the World Cup and Olympics in Brazil- construction issues and lack of improvement in infrastructure and services

05/26/2014

Linked Articles

Hope Fades in Brazil for a World Cup Economic Boost

Wall Street Journal 05/28/2014

John Lyons, John, Lyons, Loretta Chao, Loretta, Chao

New York Times 05/26/2014

Vanessa Barbara, Vanessa, Barbara

The 150 million single children of parents, and the 61 million children of migrant workers- today's young generation in China growing up in unusual conditions

01/17/2014

The children of migrant workers were mostly brought up away from parents in rural areas by grandparents. The children born under a single child policy in urban areas had the opposite happen, with too much attention from doting parents. Both groups were raised in a manner not seen anywhere else in the world and face growing pains and lives with different burdens and needs than the rest of us. China's social and economic experiment may have come too fast, as policy planners may only now begin to realize. A lot may need to be done to address their needs and burdens, not so easily seen as the burdens of pollution and contamination whicha are easily observed.

Linked Articles

End of China’s One-Child Policy Stings Its ‘Loneliest Generation’

New York Times 11/13/2015

Javier C. HernÁndez, Javier, C., HernÁndez, Amy Qin, Amy, Qin

Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014

Andrew Browne, Andrew, Browne

Why China and India see a "win-win spirit" in the Iran nuclear deal of July 2015- access to lower cost oil supplies for an extended period

08/21/2013

With the need to boost growth in India, and slowing growth in China, the prospect of lower cost Iranian oil imports is a bright spot for both countries.

Linked Articles

Oil-Thirsty China a Winner in Iran Deal

Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015

Brian Spegele, Brian, Spegele

Wall Street Journal 08/21/2013

Abheek Bhattacharya, Abheek, Bhattacharya

Declan Walsh on why the firing of live ammunition on protesters in Cairo may end up as a watershed event for the Muslim world going forward

08/16/2013

Declan Walsh sees this in the context of the Muslim world. Janvoo sees this in the context of the world beyond, of Aisa and Latin America which have moved beyond the divisive politics of the past and away from military regimes- S. Korea, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and one party PRI Mexico. The return of Gen. Park's daughter as president of S. Korea was a different one when she apologized for the behaviour of her father, even saying she coud not spit on the image of her father. Nieto's PRI is apologetic about its past and says its different, working with the opposition PRD and PAN parties on constitutional changes for reforming the econoy. Egypt and the Arab world is no exception. The Saudis and Emirates are able to deliver in economic terms as long as oil supplies and prices are high. Egypt has to find its own path and learn from the past to build the future.

Linked Articles

Other Nations Offer a Lesson to Egypt’s Military Leaders

New York Times 08/24/2013

Declan Walsh, Declan, Walsh

New York Times 08/16/2013

Charles A. Kupchan, Charles, A., Kupchan

Pakistan Railways and Iraqi Railways- a picture of the Middle East and South Asia in 2014

05/18/2013

Declan Walsh and Tim rango provide aunique insight into the lives of common people in two regions of Asia and the Middle East. A century after the European powers invested in railway lines connecting all parts of the Middle East from Turkey to Iraq and Syria, and connecting all parts of South Asia from the Afghan border to Ceylon, two reporters of the NYT visit the railways in both regions showing the prevailing state of affairs. In Iraq decades of wars and conflict have reduced the railways to a crumbling condition. In South Asia mismanagement, cronyism, corruption has led to disinvestment in Pakistan Railways and inflicted similiar damage to the rail network. Through rail one can see into the life of common people in these regions. What one sees shows that five decades after the colonial powers left this region, the educated elites, the political parties, the military, the religious leaders, have all failed the common people of their homeland.

Linked Articles

A Train Ride Through Time: From Iraq’s Checkered Past Into an Uncertain Future

New York Times 10/18/2014

Tim Arango, Tim, Arango

New York Times 05/18/2013

Declan Walsh, Declan, Walsh