How U.S. economic growth and interest rates can play out in ways contrary to what is expected for 2017-2019

12/14/2016

Linked Articles

Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It

The New York Times 12/14/2016

Neil Irwin

The New York Times 12/13/2016

Binyamin Appelbaum

Labor and trade unions in the U.S.- the crisis by 2016 after 8 years of a Democratic administration under president Obama

12/09/2016

Linked Articles

The White House’s claim that 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added during Obama’s presidency

Washington Post 12/09/2016

Glenn Kessler

Washington Post 12/09/2016

Steven Mufson

The 1976 Montreal Olympics, the 2004 Athens Olympics, the 2014 Sochi Olympics and the Rio Olympics- decades long debt hangovers and costs growing from the $1+ billion in Montreal to $50+ billion in Sochi

08/24/2016

Developing and developed countries alike have seen the cost of the Olympics as a huge burden. Many countries or cities that committed to hosting the Olympic games during boom years were facing economic hard times by the time of the games. Corruption and mismanagement of public funds, overspending and cost overruns added to the problems. Citizens uproar caused cities such as Boston and Oslo to withdraw bids for the Olympics. The Olympics appears to be a costly way to show off a country, and raises questions about better allocation of funds in other directions, especially when upward mobility is a problem for the middle and working class, countries have other infrastructure needs, and neglected basic needs in education, healthcare, public services.

Linked Articles

The 40-year hangover: how the 1976 Olympics nearly broke Montreal

The Guardian 07/06/2016

The New York Times 08/23/2016

Michael Powell

Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession

08/16/2016

The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.

Linked Articles

Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016

DW.COM 08/15/2016

Bernd Riegert / Db

The Telegraph 08/04/2016

Szu Ping Chan

Ireland, Northern Ireland and Britain- preserving the gains of the peace deal and the open borders after Brexit

07/12/2016

Northern Ireland favored Remain in EU by 55%. Should it be pushed into a situation of withdrawing from the EU like Scotland which also favored Remain based on the preference of voters in England and Wales? Should Ireland be divided by hard borders again after 20 years of peace and open borders? These are questions the people of Ireland are asking.It is also a question for Irish Americans who supported the peace deal.

Linked Articles

Brexit and Irish Unity

The New York Times 07/12/2016

DW.COM 07/05/2016

"Deaths of Despair", the causes and effects in a larger context, and the drop in America's ranking in the Social Progress Index to 19th in 2016

07/01/2016

How the middle aged white Americans 45-54 are faring in the current environment with fewer opportunities and greater vulnerabilities in health, education incomes, savings, quality of life, mortality, upward mobility, for this group. Tragically this means their children and the next generation is also affected in the way fewer opportunities are available in the future. The situation is unique to America with weaker social protection than Europe, and to Britain because of years of austerity. There are no quick fixes with easy slogans, and requires first a national awareness, national consensus, and may require the better part of a generation to solve and restore the hope and promise of Jefferson in making the "inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" available to all.

Linked Articles

Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink

WSJ 06/30/2016

WSJ 06/30/2016

Josh Zumbrun, Josh, Zumbrun

Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs

03/08/2016

By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.

Linked Articles

How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016

Holman W. Jenkins Jr., Holman, W., Jenkins, Jr.

The resilience of U.S. auto sales in 2015-2016- new management, technological advances and pent up demand

01/06/2016

The U.S. automobile market and its resilience is one factor in the improving economy in 2016. New management and technology provide a resilience for automakers that never existed before.

Linked Articles

U.S. Car Sales Set Record in 2015

Wall Street Journal 01/06/2016

Mike Spector, Mike, Spector, Jeff Bennett, Jeff, Bennett, John D. Stoll, John, D., Stoll

Washington Post 01/06/2016

Drew Harwell, Drew, Harwell, Steven Mufson, Steven, Mufson

2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.

09/09/2015

The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.

Linked Articles

The Bush Growth Plan

Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015

Editorial

New York Times 09/09/2015

Alan Rappeport, Alan, Rappeport, Matt Flegenheimer, Matt, Flegenheimer

The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates

08/12/2015

China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.

Linked Articles

China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post

Washington Post 08/12/2015

Matt O'brien, Matt, O'brien

Wall Street Journal 08/12/2015

Editorial

Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors

07/27/2015

Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.

Linked Articles

Hillary’s Capital ‘Lock In’

Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015

Editorial

New York Times 07/27/2015

Andrew Ross Sorkin, Andrew, Ross, Sorkin

The real story behind the higher growth in the Reagan-Clinton years, the lower growth during the Bush-Obama years and Jeb Bush's 4% target

06/18/2015

Linked Articles

Voodoo, Jeb! Style

New York Times 06/19/2015

Paul Krugman, Paul, Krugman

Wall Street Journal 06/18/2015

William A. Galston, William, A., Galston

Norway parliament's decision to divest holdings in companies 30% dependent on coal opens up debate on coal- (3) Coal India and the 1 billion ton target for 2020

05/14/2015

With about 300 million people without electricity, and India lagging behind Brazil and Indonesia in the percentage of population lacking electricity, the goal is to modernize the coal industry and increase production. This shows the different tradeoffs in less developed countries such as India, which face a completely different set of tradeoffs, and are moving in the opposite direction out of necessity. China is just entering a period after rapid modernization where the discussion about the tradeoffs is shifting, whereas India remains in a very different phase.

Linked Articles

Norway Will Divest From Coal in Push Against Climate Change

New York Times 06/05/2015

John Schwartz, John, Schwartz

Wall Street Journal 05/14/2015

Raymond Zhong And Niharika Mandhana, Raymond, Zhong, And, Niharika, Mandhana