Resilience of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (2) the oil industry and modest growth in 2015

02/09/2015

Linked Articles

Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects Shrink

Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016

Selina Williams, Selina, Williams, James Marson, James, Marson

New York Times 02/09/2015

Andrew E. Kramer, Andrew, E., Kramer

The cost of the crisis to Russia exceeds $200 billion- a story of wasted opportunities to diversify away from oil and gas and integrate fully into the competitive global economy

01/29/2015

Linked Articles

From Russia With No Love

Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015

Richard Barley, Richard, Barley

Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, Andrey Ostroukh, Andrey, Ostroukh

Looking back at Hong Kong and China today and yesterday- China in 1842 and in 1945, nationalism and commercial interests of foreign powers

01/09/2015

A wariness with foreign powers in China stems from the influences left behind from the British commercial interests and the Japanese invasion of China. Compared to that period, the period of collaboration on an equal footing and playing field is is a short and recent one that has taken place for just three decades 1985-2015. Fears that the accelerated development in China could slow down without a strong central government, combine with the awareness of the need for western technology and open communications in today's global economy to accelerate the development, create in the Chinese mind a problem that needs to be tackled carefully to continue progress. Awareness of the huge inequalities and corruption in the rush towards modernization, need to tackle extensive contamination of air and water, and need for social security and healthcare for an aging population create a new urgency for careful policy making to sustain progress.

Linked Articles

Gentlemen Drug Dealers

Wall Street Journal 01/12/2015

George Walden, George, Walden

New York Times 01/09/2015

Thomas J. Christensen, Thomas, J., Christensen

The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015

12/18/2014

A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.

Linked Articles

Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Gregory White, Gregory, White, Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, James Marson, James, Marson

Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views

11/20/2014

Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.

Linked Articles

Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance

Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014

Eleanor Warnock, Eleanor, Warnock

New York Times 11/20/2014

Martin Fackler, Martin, Fackler

Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014

10/02/2014

The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.

Linked Articles

Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters

New York Times 12/17/2014

Andrew Roth, Andrew, Roth

New York Times 10/02/2014

Andrew E. Kramer, Andrew, E., Kramer

China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013

07/09/2014

Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.

Linked Articles

U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post

Washington Post 07/09/2014

Simon Denyer, Simon, Denyer

Wall Street Journal 07/09/2014

Yuka Hayashi, Yuka, Hayashi

Christine Lagarde and John Lipsky on the need to move forward with the IMF reforms giving greater representation to emerging market countries in G-20

03/25/2014

Lagarde and Lipsky point out that this does not change the U.S. voting rights of 16%. They emphasize the stabilizing role the IMF has played for the global economy in crises and the more open thinking at the IMF on economic programs.

Linked Articles

The U.S. Should Ratify Its Agreement to IMF Reform

Wall Street Journal 04/02/2014

John Lipsky, John, Lipsky

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2014

Christine Lagarde, Christine, Lagarde

Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015

02/21/2014

Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.

Linked Articles

Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted

Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014

Drew Hinshaw, Drew, Hinshaw

New York Times 08/25/2014

Neha Thirani Bagri, Neha, Thirani, Bagri

Faces of workers quitting work or reducing hours as they qualify for subsidies on health insurance under the Obama Healthcare Law

02/05/2014

Faces of the workers taking subsidies available to lower income workers under the Obama Health Care Law. The Congressional Budget Office projections for 2021 show about the equivalent of 2.3 million workers worth of hours reduced as a result of the healthcare law subsidies giving workers more choice. Many use the time to work on startup business or child care for grandchildren. The jobs freed up and the hours could be taken up by other workers looking for jobs. Gains in childcare would be another result.

Linked Articles

Health Law To Cut Into Labor Force

Wall Street Journal 02/05/2014

Louise Radnofsky, Louise, Radnofsky, Damian Paletta, Damian, Paletta

Washington Post 02/09/2014

Sandhya Somasekhar, Sandhya, Somasekhar

Russia as emerging market (1) - declining currency and stagflation

01/17/2014

Declining growth characterizes all emerging markets. High reserves in Russia and Brazil separate the two countries from Argentina and Turkey where foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to prevent sharp declines in the currrency. Russia also has a low budget deficit. The foreign investment climate in Russia and India has deteriorated reducing capital inflows for modernizing the economy in India and diversifying the economy in Russia.

Linked Articles

Red Alert on Russia Is Premature

Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014

Richard Barley, Richard, Barley

Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, Paul Hannon, Paul, Hannon

Insights into the thinking of Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke for a strong labor market before increasing interest rates

07/18/2013

Yellen is expected to look beyond the unemployment rate target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012, and give emphasis to the long term unemployed. Bernanke also mention the under employment rate as an additional factor to consider.

Linked Articles

Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates

New York Times 01/23/2014

Floyd Norris, Floyd, Norris

Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013

Jon Hilsenrath, Jon, Hilsenrath, Victoria Mcgrane, Victoria, Mcgrane