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The Labor Department reports 295,000 seasonally adjusted jobs created in Feb. 2015, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5%. This opens the path for the U.S. Fed to increase interest rates as early as June 2015.

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A study by Sentier Research from Census data shows people in the U.S. age 55-64 years make 10% less in June 2012 compared to June 2009. Every demographic has suffered income losses in this period. Median household income declined by 4.8% in these three years. Using December 2007 as astarting point shows a decline of 7.2%- $50,964 vs. $54,916. Blacks, those with some education like a high school diploma but no degree, the older Americans, and younger Americans were hit hard. Long term unemployment was the cause of the decline among older Americans. Even college graduates suffered a decline of 5.9% from $88,570 to $83,378.

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says the Fed will keep interest rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5%, as long as inflation remains at about 2%. If unemployment reaches 6.5%, and this is because more people are dropping out of the labor market, he will take this into account. If unemployment stays high the Fed indicated in its statement that it would tolerate a higher inflation of 2.5%, as long as the longer term outlook was for inflation to be at 2%. Bernanke said this doesn't mean monetary policy is on autopilot, because the Fed will watch conditions carefully and will leave room for flexibility- keeping an eye out for new asset bubbles that could develop, and monitoring labor market conditions and inflationary pressures and inflation expectations. If inflation falls well below 2%, or unemployment rate falls mainly because of people dropping out of the labor market, the Fed may continue to keep interest rates low. This policy was announced as U.S. fiscal cliff deficit negotiations continued in Dec. 2012 with one scenario being considered by both political parties being going over the Jan. 1 deadline before coming to an agreement. Bernanke pointed to this, saying "this is a major risk factor right now." The Fed's activist policy in economic policy has given financial markets and business a measure of stability not provided by government and Congress. Fed policy is to buy $40 billion of mortgage securities, and $45 billion of long term Treasury securities for each month in 2013. It will fund the purchases by adding reserves to the banking system, which is to say that it will print money to buy more bonds. This is a major decision by the Fed in that the Fed has shied away from unemployment targets in the past. Bernanke described this action as a new"automatic stabilizer" in the U.S. financial system- if unemployment rises investors know this pushes the Fed's interest rate increases further down the road and would drive interest rates down, if unemployment drops sooner than expected, investors anticipating Fed's rate increases would drive long term interest rates up, to keep stable growth....

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Manufacturing in the US is adding jobs for the first time since 1997, according to government data. Job growth in 2010 was 1.2%, or 136,000 jobs. IHS Global Insight expects total manufacturing jobs in the US to increase in 2011 to 12 million. Manufacturing will be a modest contributor to job growth according to economists. Economists projections show a gain of 2.5% or 330,000 manufacturing jobs in 2011. Moody's Analytics estimates job growth of 2% a year through 2015. Government incentives, need to replace aging equipment and rehiring in the automobile industry will help manufacturing. At the same time manufacturers are cautious about hiring and increases in automation reduce the need for workers compared to earlier periods. Overall the loss of about 6 million manufacturing jobs since 1997 will not be made up. Yet the improvement is a positive sign as the US faces high unemployment and companies make investment in new factories overseas to meet growth in emerging markets.

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Krueger and Posner, eminent economists, say the reason wages have stagnated in the U.S. with wages not having budged much over a decade 2008-2018, is not only because of globalization and automation as long term trends. They attribute this stagnation in wages to "monopsony power," or power American corporations have over workers because of their stronger bargaining position and because workers have few alternatives.  For most of this period 2008-2018 high unemployment as reflected by the people out of work and taking part time jobs or having stopped looking for work, shifted bargaining power to companies. The Economist magazine pointed out that workers have not shared in the profit and gains corporations made during this period. Here Krueger and Posner show additional factors such as non compete clauses in worker agreements that have depressed wages. Half of franchise agreements prohibit competition for labor. Outsourcing work to other companies that hire workers means these outsourcing companies have more power over workers than the original companies using the labor. Unions represent only 7 percent of private sector workers by 2017, compared to 35 percent in the 1950's, so that there are no mechanisms to counteract the greater bargaining power gained by companies vs. workers. The way workers have roots in the communities they live and the consolidation of employers into a few companies in a particular area, mean fewer options exist for workers.  Senators Warren and Booker and the anti-trust division of the U.S. Justice Department are in agreement on this issue of widespread use of noncompete agreements that is considered unlawful, says this report in the NYT, offering hope for a solution to bring a better balance between the rights of workers to fair wages and companies seeking profit for stakeholders. Issues about workers, lack of gains for workers, prevalent outsourcing, and the frustrations of labor with parties that had lost touch with their worker base- such as Labor in Britain, SPD in Germany, Socialist Party in France and the Democratic Party in the U.S. - have led to political upsets with support shifting to other parties. This has not led to significant change to improve bargaining power of workers to correct the imbalance that now exists between labor and companies, leading to calls for change. Eric Posner is a law professor at the University of Chicago law school and co-author of a new book "Radical Markets: uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society." This book turns the popular notion on its head that free markets have produced the imbalances that hurt social cohesion and democracy, by saying it is precisely the suppression of free competition such as for labor that have created this unhealthy situation. This is true in other areas where monopoly power has developed in other parts of the U.S and European economies in 2008-2018, as also for distortions in capital allocation that hurt infrastructure and other public investment. Krueger is a professor of public affairs at Princeton University and former head of the President's Council of Economic Advisors in 2011 under Obama, showing that Democrats themselves failed to correct this imbalance leading to a shift to other parties and Mr. Trump, who also appear to lack ideas or solutions to this problem that affects social cohesion and democracy. This is contrary to the vision of American or European society of better opportunity for all shared by all Americans and Europeans for most of the twentieth century. ...

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As the U.S. economy continues to gain in job growth with unemployment at 3.8% in May 2018, wage gains remain low. Wage growth over the past year is about 2.7%. Labor participation rate is at 62.7%. Reasons given for low wage growth are the lack of wage increases for people who stay at their current jobs, the digital disruption lowering wages, decline of union bargaining, and low productivity growth. This gives the Federal Reserve more room to increase interest rates gradually.

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Discussion at a U.S. Fed meeting in Jan 28-29, 2014, as revealed in the minutes for that meeting. It shows Fed officials such as Bullard of the St Louis Fed asked for a debate on interest rates, but most Fed oficials at the meeting including Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed, supported current tapering policy to wind down bond purchases buy the end of 2014. Some of the discussion went to how fast the unemployment rate had declined from 7.9% to the 6.5% threshold set by the Fed, and what this meant as other signs show weakness in the U.S. economy. The drop in the unemployment rate reflected more older workers retiring and to an unusual degree discouraged workers dropping out and not looking for work. Should the Fed put more weight on inflation and financial stability some officials argued, especially as inflation was still about a percentage point below the 2% target by some estimates.

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Once again the unemployment statistics lie- women's unemployment at 5.7% in 2014 does not reflect the real story. The number of women employed in 2014 is 55.2%, worse than in Oct. 2010. Many women looking for work give up and drop out of the work force, these women have not vanished, they are simply not being counted in the frequently quoted unemployment statistic. This spells bad news for Democrats in the midterm 2014 elections- today the households making less than 30,000 are almost evenly split on whether they vote Republican or Democratic 43% to 46%, according to polls by Pew Research Center, compared to the 2012 presidential election figures of 35% to 63%. Interestingly the reverse is true for voters with incomes over $100,000 where voters are about evenly split for Republican or Democratic choices for Congress. In 2012 presidential elections the Republicans had a 10 percentage point lead for this income group. Democratic advisors Carville and Greenberg advise not even mentioning the word "recovery" for the U.S. midterm 2014 Congressional elections. About 6.7 million people had multiple jobs in 2010, the figure now is 7 million. About 2.62 million people say they had part time jobs because they could not find full time work in April 2014 up from 2.57 million in Oct. 2010. A separate piece in the WSJ May 20, 2014, shows 10 million U.S. households under water on mortgages and another 10 million households having less than 20% equity in their homes in 2014....

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The US unemployment rate dropped in December 2010 to 9.4% from 9.8% in November, 2010.

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The most recent U.S Congressional Budget Office projections make assumptions of an higher U.S. unemployment rate for the next 10 years. This worsens the outlook for the U.S. deficit. The CBO projections assume unemployment of 8.5% by the end of 2012, remaining over 8% till 2014. The deficit for fiscal 2012 is projected to be $973 billion, or 6.2% of GDP. This is down from $1.3 trillion, or 8.5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2011, after spending cuts. Over the coming ten years CBO projects cumulative deficits of $8.5 trillion and U.S. debt at 82% of GDP in 2021, under a scenario where Congress renews the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts, and is unable to reduce fees paid to doctors under Medicare. The gap between revenue and spending is widening- revenues are at 15.3% of GDP in 2011 and spending is 23.8% of GDP.

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Mortimer Zuckerman, publisher of U.S. News and World Report, looks behind the unemployment numbers and points to U-6 the real measure of under utilized labor and of workers working part time because of a lack of full time work, and says this is at about 15%. Add the eight million who quit looking and it is 19%, says Zuckerman The unemployment rate of 8.1% does not reflect the eight million workers who have quit looking. The long term unemployed, workers unemployed for more than 27 weeks is at 40.7%, or 5.2 million workers. Fewer Americans work today than in 2000, even though the population has increased by 31 million. Only 96,000 jobs were generated in August 2012. Something is seriously wrong and the right steps have not been taken.

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The U.S. economy generated 280,000 jobs in May 2015, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.5% as more Americans were looking for jobs. This report suggests the weak 1st quarter jobs numbers are a temporary situation from the severe winter.

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In a speech on June 6, 2011, Fed chairman Bernanke says "monetary policy cannot be a panacea." He points out that monetary policy can only do so much, in effect reducing expectations that the Fed can by itself tackle the problems stemming from the economic crisis of 2008, the overleveraging of the U.S. consumer and the banking sector, and the problems in housing. A Labor Department report shows 13.7 million unemployed in April 2011, and 3 million job openings at the end of April 2011. Bernanke forecasts growth in the second half will be "uneven" and frustratingly slow for reducing unemployment.

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Elelven of twelve Fed Governors support the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates low till unemployment falls below 6.5%, as long as inflation remains subdued at 2-2.5% and inflation expectations are low. Only the Fed governor of Richmond expressed a dissenting vote. The Fed in its policy statement said it was addressing the problems of the last three years in housing and joblessness. Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed put it this way in a Sept 2011 speech- suppose the inflation rate was 5% when the target was 2%, then central banksers at the Fed would have acted as if their hair was on fire to tackle inflation, then why shouldn't the Fed do the same for unemployment. He succeeded in convincing Bernanke, Yellen and other Fed governors. Bernanke emphasized the enormous cost in human potential and productive capacity of the U.S. economy from high unemployment and people dropping out of the labor force.

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The Labor Department reported the U.S economy gained 117,000 jobs in July 2011. Companies added 154,000 jobs, and state and local governments reduced jobs by 39,000. The unemployment rate declined from 9.2% to 9.1%, mainly because some people stopped looking for work. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending declined in June, 2011.

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The U.S. Labor Department reported 120,000 jobs were added by private companies in March 2012. The U.S. government cut jobs by 1000. Manufacturing added 37,000 jobs, with a lot of these jobs in the auto industry. Health care, financial services and professional and business services added jobs. Retailers cut 34,000 jobs. Construction and transportation did not change. Average hourly earnings increased by 5 cents to $23.39, and wages increased by 2.1% over the prior year, still about the same as inflation; leaving workers with no real increase in incomes. The U.S. has to increase jobs by at least 100,000 jobs to keep up with population growth. March 2012 jobs numbers revealed what the U.S. Federal Reserve already knew when it pointed to weak growth in jobs ahead. It comes as the equity markets are sharply overextended after a couple of months of better job numbers. The unemployment rate declined from 8.3% to 8.2%, largely from fewer people looking for work.

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The U.S. Labor Department reports 204,000 nonfarm jobs were created in October 2013. Upward revisions of prior months lead to a level of about 202,000 jobs created in the three months July to October 2013. The unemployment rate goes up from 7.2% to 7.3% in the household survey, with furloughed government employees counted after the temporary government shutdown. The negative part of the picture is that 720,000 persons dropped out of the labor force, a high and puzzling number, and the labor participation rate drops to a 35 year low of 62.8%. This has been a problem since the 2008 crisis as more discouraged workers drop out of the work force, go to school or stay home and care for children, and increasing numbers retire. Some economists now see the Fed waiting till the unemployment rate drops to 6% before withdrawing from the bond buying program in place of the earlier announced 6.5%.

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Ezra Klein cites Ed Luce, who writes in the Financial Times, that the real unemployment rate in the U.S. is 11%, when you count people who have no job but have given up looking after months of fruitless searching. These are the long term unemployed and pose risks for the economy and for society. Compared to 2007, the percent of people in the U.S with a job or actively looking for work has dropped from 62.7% to 58.5%. Luce's 11% is arrived at by considering these 62.7%, including millions of workers who have quit looking but would start looking again if the labor market brightens. This is important because U.S. government statistics show unemployment dropping below 9% in November 2009, supposedly an improvemment, when its actually the reverse that is actually happening. The real underemployment is nearly 20%.

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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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The Labor Department report shows U.S. nonfarm payrolls increasing by 165,000 in April 2013, and the unemployment rate declining to 7.5%. The housing and auto sectors showed gains. Private sector jobs increased by 176,000, and government jobs showed losses of 11,000. Professional and business services sectors added 73,000 jobs, including 31,000 temporary workers.

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The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 7.7% in February 2013 from 7.9% in January, with 236,000 jobs added. IHS Global Insight's forecast of GDP growth is 1.5% for the first half of 2013 because of spending cuts and the increase in Social Security taxes in Jan 2013. Macroeconomic Advisors predicts the federal spending cuts will lead to loss of about 700,000 jobs, with most of this ocurring in the second and third quarters. As a result economists expect the unemployment rate to be at about 7.5% by the end of 2013. The job gains were broad based including manufacturing and business services, and 48,000 construction jobs were addd. At the same time the labor force participation rate declined to 63.5% reflecting some workers retiring and some discouraged workers dropping out of the job market.

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Jack Welch, former head of GE (General), says there is something that does not add up in the Labor Dept numbers for unemployment in Sept. 2012 showing that the unemployment rate declined from 8.1% to 7.8%, because experts estimate the economy has to generate more than 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. The number of jobs generated for 2012 are lower than this number. Another measure of unemployment which shows the underutilization of labor in America, which the U.S. Federal Reserve's Bernanke looks at because it is ameasure of how effectively the U.S. is using the productive resources of the country, is U-6. U-6 covers people in parttime jobs who cannot find full time jobs and this has remained unchanged at 14.7% for Sept. 2012 according to the Labor Department.

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The U.S. economy added an average of 284,000 jobs each month for October, November and December 2015. In December 292,000 new jobs were added. The monthly rate for the first 9 months was an average of 200,000 jobs. This shows the pace accelerated by Dec. 2015. In all 2.65 million jobs were added in 2015. The unemployment rate is now at 5%. Yet the wage gains are modest, at 2.5% for 2015. The average hourly wage is at $25.24. The labor force participation rate has declined for many years and stands at 62.6%, as many people are too discouraged to look for work- this is the share of Americans having jobs or looking for work. Experts say this is like a huge shadow work force existing on the side that could explain the lack of wage gains, as the official figure of unemployment is not reflecting the discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor market.

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The Labor Department figures showed the U.S. added 157,000 jobs in January 2013. The unemployment rate edged slighly higher to 7.9%. Government jobs declined by 9000 in January, and the risk remains that drastic job cuts under a sequester of government spending cuts supported by some in Congress would hurt the job market.

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Izzo looks at the diverging picture presented by two Labor Department surveys of unemployment in the U.S. for July 2012- an increase of 163,000 jobs or 195,000 fewer people working. One, the Household Survey is based on survey of individual households counts people and the other the Establishment Survey based on a survey of employers counts jobs. If one person holds two jobs he would be counted twice in the Establishment Survey and once in the Household Survey. If a person is a unincorporated self employed person, a family employee who isn't paid, a farm worker who is employed but not paid he is counted in the Household Survey, but left out in the Establishment Survey. The Labor Department prepares a third measure of the number of people working by adjusting for multple jobholders and for workers not counted in the survey of businesses. By this third measure the U.S. economy added 108,000 jobs in July, which is far less than the 163,000 jobs shown added in the Establishment Survey. Because of the increase in parttime work it is likely that more people are doing multiple jobs which may explain some of this difference. Another reason could be the severe drought in the U.S. that may be reducing the opportunities for work for freelance construction maintenance and day laborers because of restrictions on water use. This shows that it takes several months of data to get some sense of where unemployment is headed, adjusting the numbers for unusual events or weather, and looking behind the numbers to the sectors generating jobs. In the first quarter of 2012 more jobs were generated in the U.S. because of a mild winter, followed by fewer jobs in the second quarter, which required looking at the two quarters together to get a better picture. Adjusting for the long term unemployed who have quit looking is also necessary to get a correct reading of U.S. unemployment levels....