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Krugman says $1.089 trillion to be exact for the fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He gives the 400-450-150 formula to understand what this means in simple terms. The debt would still be stable or declining as a ratio of GDP at $400 billion because of steady GDP growth. He cites the example of the period when debt to GDP declined from 49% to 33% because of steady growth during the Clinton years (1992-2000) even though Clinton started out in 2000 with a deficit. The $450 billion is from lower tax payments because of the 2008 economic crisis followed by recession which would be reversed with restored GDP growth. The $150 billion is from payments such as unemployment insurance, food stamps, to cushion the effects of that crisis and the recession, which would be reversed with restored economic growth.
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With 40% of the unemployed in the U.S. shown as long term unemployed, mismatch in skills and other structural problems with unemployment, the U.S. Federal Reserve policies of Fed chairman Bernanke are geared to addressing this problem.
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