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Krugman points out that about 13 million Americans without insurance gained health insurance under the Obama plan. He says if it is turned back 8 million whites without a college degree in that 13 million will lose health insurance. Of these eight million about two out of three voted for Trump, so that 5 million Trump supporters could now lose health insurance even though they are older and have more health conditions. Krugman says this aspect of the election campaign was not covered well in the misinformation and social media information of the 2016 campaign, and the lack of media focus on the important issues in the election. On manufacturing jobs he says most of the jobs lost are not returning, and only token jobs such as at a Carrier plant in the news will take their place.

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This editorial in the NYT calls for the IMF and the EU to rip up their I.O.U.'s after five years of debt negotiations with Greece and a contracting Greek economy. German public opinion looks at it differently having shifted to favoring Greece's exit from the euro. Chancellor Merkel says "if the Euro fails, Europe fails," what she means by this is that the economic responsibility of countries in the eurozone is a condition for the Euro to succeed. The two sides are far apart as Greece faces a "yes" or "no" vote to remain in the eurozone in the July 5, 2015 referendum.

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Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti, a senior EU official before becoming prime minister, has the credibility and credentials to bring the French and German sides together on a new plan forward for the European Union, says Steven Pearlstein of the Washington Post. In this report from Rome, where leaders of Italy, Spain, France and Germany are meeting to discuss solutions Pearlstein describes the solutions Monti is putting forward. The European Investment Fund would be built up so that it has funding of about $175 billion or 1% of Europe's GDP to finance truly productivity and growth enhancing projects of innovative small and medium sized business in transportation, energy, education and environmental sectors. These companies have suffered shortages of capital as banks pulled bank from lending. It is the inadequate private investment that is causing the greatest damage in this crisis and $175 billion is at the low end of the amount needed in this crisis. Other steps Monti is pushing forward- for immediate steps to tackle the crisis deposit insurance to prevent a run on banks is essential for European banks. This would come with a eurozone regulatory authority that would have the powers to regulate European banks. The European Financial Stability Facility would be the "sovereign buyer of last resort," under Monti's proposal. Eurobonds come up as a key part of the solution. This is not because German and French taxpayers would be required to finance economies of Spain and Italy. As was shown by the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) a well designed program could pay for itself. This would include the EU financial authority taking up stakes in the banks getting help and closing banks that are insolvent. The key point is that if properly executed and executed in a timely and appropriate way this does not have to cost French and German taxpayers- the important thing being to support the eurozone economies before the situation deteriorates. Borrowing at 6% for Spain and Italy will only put the situation out of control as deficits rise rapidly. The concessions for tighter regulation of European banking systems, reducing risk in banking, setting up adequate reserves, closing poorly run banks, and ceding powers to a European Financial Authority that can make the final decisions, are the steps that would have to go with these arrangements. Sound financial management requires that the kind of banking risks taken in the speculative bubbles in Spain, the lack of transparency and credibility in banking estimates of bad loans in the system, and the glossing over the problems at Bankia, would have to be addressed in solutions through regulation by a credible European Financial Authority to convince skeptical German public opinion that financial accounts are conducted in a proper manner....

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Speaking at the annual meeting of Italy's banking association on July 11, 2012, prime minister Mario Monti calls the struggle he is leading to change the economic performance of Italy, and especially against structural vices in the economy, "a very tough war." He added that the plan to reduce Italy's borrowing rates with the agreement to use the ESM or EFSF, the EU's rescue fund, "must be consolidated both in its substance and the way it is communicated." Bank of Italy governor, Ignazio Visco, said the spread between Italian and German bonds and the borrowing rates approaching 7% for Italy compared to about zero for Germany and France, were "far above what would be justified by the fundamentals of our economy." Deputy finance minister, Vittorio Grilli, is taking over the role of finance minister which Monti had assumed earlier. Monti will lead a new economic and financial policy committee which includes Mr. Grilli and development minister Corrado Passera.

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France's parliamentary elections showed the Socialist party gaining 280 seats, with two allied parties getting 34 seats, giving the Socialists an absolute majority in parliament. Greens won 17 seats and the far left 10 seats. Former president Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement won 194 seats and allies 35 seats, for a total of 229 seats, down from 304 seats.The National Front led by Marie Le Pen won 2 seats. Marie Le Pen and Segolene Royal both lost their seats. The absolute majority gives Socialist president Hollande more room to implement his legislative program and make changes in eurozone architecture.

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The relationship from college years at Amherst College in the U.S. of Greek political leaders Antonis Samaras and George Papandreou. The efforts to setup a national unity government that failed. The increasing support for the opposition New Democracy Party led by Samaras- with 16% unemployment- and the prospect of new elections. Samaras supports spending cuts. He also favors tax cuts, and a flat tax rate of 15% on business. Greece has a long history of tax evasion and distrust of central authority going back to centuries of Turkish rule. Samaras believes that the lower tax rate of 15% would help change the Greek cultural trait of evading taxes becaue it would be on the honor of people to pay such a basic tax. EU leaders are skeptical that lower taxes are the right policy to reduce the deficit. This adds to the political uncertainty as the new government would have to implement the measures agreed to between the current Greek government and the EU leaders. A similiar situation existed in Portugal but the recent elections there, participation of the opposition party in talks, and the newly elected government conducting its own negotiations, has removed that element of uncertainty which exists in Greece. ...

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The domestic German public opinion has shifted against further bailouts to the point where a poll conducted July 1-5 before the referendum shows only 10% of German supporting further concessions in negotiations with Greece. This reduces even further the room domestic public opinion gives German chancellor Merkel for flexibility in talks following the Greece referendum "no" vote to earlier proposals from Germany and France. The multi year program planned for Greece following the referendum involves reforms such as making firing workers easier, changes to product markets and privatization of state assets, which were left out in the June 2 proposal from Merkel and Hollande, which was rejected at the time by Greece.

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Nikos Voutsis, Greece's interior minister, says Greece lacks the money to make debt repayments of 1.6 billion euros to the IMF in June 2015. A proposal by the Left Platform, a faction within Syriza party led by energy minister Lafazanis, which has support of 30 of the 149 Syriza representatives in the Greek parliament, calls for not making debt repayments and looking for an alternate plan. It was defeated by the central committee of the Syriza party on May 24, 2015, with the vote 95 to 75 showing intense opposition within Syriza. Instead Syriza voted for a proposal to call for mutually beneficial negotiations and a deal that would preserve its core goals- a low target for the primary budget surplus, avoid more cuts to pensions, and restructuring Greece's debt to include an investment plan for economic recovery. Both sides in the negotiations, the EU/IMF and Syriza government in Greece, reached an impasse as the negotiating tactics of finance minister Varoufakis led to German finance minister Schauble also taking a tougher stance, saying he could not rule out Greece defaulting on its debt. ...

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Palaiologos of the Kathimerini newspaper in Athens, Greece, says the early euphoria of support for Tsipras is fading, as the negotiations with the EU require Tsipras to go back on his election pledges and require difficult choices. He points to a poll from the University of Macedonia putting government support of its negotiating strategy in April 2015 at 45.5%, down from 72% in February 2015. He says the Syriza government has conveyed different and contradictory messages, wasting a lot of the goodwill in Europe for Greece's position, and by backtracking on agreements put Greece back into recession. Greece needs to take responsibility for how deep the crisis is compared to a country like Ireland or Portugal, because of dysfunctional public administration and political systems, says Palaiologos. The EU and Greece need to make a fresh start after all the false starts of the early part of 2015.

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Germany's Economy minister Zypries warned that Germany would take legal action by taking the case to the World Trade Organization if president Trump imposes tariffs above that allowed by WTO rules. She said this before a meeting at the White House between president Trump and Chancellor Merkel. The U.S. is Germany's largest export market with 107 billion in imports and the U.S. exports 58 billion euros of products to the U.S. Zypries accepted that the large trade surplus of Germany was "a problem," but that America "needs our machines and industrial plants" for the time being. Germany has insisted that it does not provide unfair advantages to its companies, and that German companies were simply more competitive. Trump has focussed largely on China for anti-competitive practices, though he mentioned BMW by name during the campaign. In the last 2 years the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar giving German companies competitive advantage, largely as a result of the ECB- in opposition to German economic policy- trying to stimulate the economy of other southern eurozone countries such as Spain, Italy and France. ...

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Yields on Greece's 10 year bonds rise to nearly 9% in October 2014, as growth slows to near zero in the eurozone, including Germany, in the second half of 2014.

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Krugman points to the connection between the failure to achieve debt reduction through debt forgiveness and the sluggish economic growth in the eurozone and U.S., five years after the global banking and financial crisis of 2009 and four years after the beginning of the eurozone debt crisis in 2010. In the U.S. debt reduction for homeowners was delayed with a wave of foreclosures, and in Europe austerity budgets were the norm as Germany pushed hard for austerity policies. In 2014 small relaxation of austerity to give relief to voters took place in Greece, France, Italy and Spain, with austerity budgets still in place. Growth also slowed in Germany to slight contraction in the third quarter and no growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. This is leading to the formulation of new policy to address growth challenges in the eurozone. Debt to GDP is growing in eurozone countries and Britain because of lack of growth, even though spending cuts have been made, showing the need for rethinking policy. ...

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Mario Monti, Italy's prime minister, tells Alessandra Galloni of the WSJ, "Germany will never let France go." French economist Sorman says Americans do not realize that the EU and the Euro were created for political, not economic reasons, and the idea was to bring peace to Europe and especially between France and Germany. He sees the EU countries staying through this crisis together, and France emerging more competitive from this experience.

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The Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel is Economics Minister in the coalition government of Angela Merkel in Germany. He is sympathetic to French premier Manuel Valls effort to reduce austerity in the 2015 French budget now being reviewed by Brussels. Here he takes the initiative to call for discussion on the issue of growth and austerity facing the European Union, by joining French Economics minister Emmanuel Macron in asking two economists Pisani-Ferry and Enderlein at the Berlin Institute of Governance for advice on generating growth. The process started in late summer with the defeat of the centre right government in Sweden which supported Merkel's strict austerity policies for balanced budgets. The elections to the European parliament showed the dire situation facing Cameron in Britain and Hollande in France with the unpopularity of austerity policies, higher taxes and cutbacks. The Socialist Hollande government has the lowest public opinion ratings of any postwar government in France, at 18%, and it is unwilling to go further down the road with austerity. At the same time Valls has found a partner in Italy with the growing popularity of Matteo Renzi in Italy who won 40% of the vote in Italy for the EU parliamentary elections of 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi, has generated the debate by saying at a October 2014 Brookings Institution conference in Washington D.C. that countries that have fiscal space (referring to Germany) should use it. He added that governments that did not take action in the economic crisis facing the eurozone of no growth will be swept away by public opinion. IMF president Lagarde, a former French Finance Minister under Sarkozy, has also questioned policy of strict austerity. For the first time since the start of the eurozone crisis in 2010 there is an opportunity for open discussion on future policies for renewal in the eurozone....

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This report by Landon Thomas Jr. of the NYT describes what happened in the days before and the 48 hours before the referendum decision was announced by June 27, 2015. It shows talks progressing right up to Monday, June 22, 2015. By June 23 Greece received a paper marked in red from the IMF, EU and the ECB on their proposal of June 22. The Greek proposal of June 22 rejected pension cuts and removal of tax breaks for Greek islands, but proposing instead a series of tax increases and increase in pension contributions to be made by companies in Greece. The reply marked up disagreement areas on the paper which voiced objections to too many tax increases as hurting business growth, need to simplify value added taxes, and insisting on pension cuts and reforms. The two advisors Tsipras had used were a complete contrast to the new advisor and finance minister Mr. Tsakalotos he was to use in negotiations after July 7, 2015. Nikos Pappas is described here as an academic with a temper and Varoufakis as a person who would not hesitate to confront and lecture the creditors negotiators. Varoufakis who already had arguments and shouting matches with his counterparts on the other side, had a difficult relationship with the Dutch finance minister, Dijsselbloem, who was the chief of eurozone finance ministers. Dijseelbloem especially objected to Varoufakis lecturing on the need for a debt haircut. Varoufakis was removed from the discussions for a period of several weeks as a result and his reintroduction on June 25 was to have a negative effect on the EU and German negotiators. The same issue of debt came up again in discussions on June 25, 2015, and Varoufakis confronted the EU ministers by calling on the IMF's Christine Lagarde to state if the debt was sustainable. Before that Dijsselbloem had already told him flatly that any discussion on debt reduction would make a deal impossible. At one point German finance minister Schauble argued with EU official Pierre Muscovici of France about his favorable comments on the Greece proposal, saying he could not get the Greek proposal through the German parliament, and saying the ony solution now was capital controls. IMF's Christine Lagarde responded by saying that debt reduction needed to be considered. According to this report the Dutch finance mnister did not wait for Lagarde to explain- he told Varoufakis that it was take it or leave it....

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In this interview with Varoufakis, the Greece finance minister in the negotiations with the European Union and the IMF in 2015, Suzy Hansen provides a detailed account of Varoufakis's view on the Greece bailouts and a sense of looming failure in the negotiations. Varoufakis says he was willing to make concessions by holding off on action on the minimum wage, but cannot make concessions on paying out pensions to the elderly. Varoufakis concedes he is not a good negotiator or a politician, and negotiating skills were critical for Greece to tap into the goodwill in the eurozone's southern region to win a package that would give the Greek economy a chance to grow. Additional handicaps may be his outlook which was shaped in his younger years by the "junta years" when Greece was ruled by a military dictatorship, and a family history relating to Greece's civil war between royalists and communists. In this interview he compares himself to Margaret Thatcher, who he says should not be held responsible for the state corporatism following the war, remarks that may show a finance minister out of touch with the present situation. There is no lack of criticism of the way some of the bailout actions took place to protect French and German banks in 2011 and 2012- in fact some of the strongest criticism, well formulated, was on the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal. Yet Varoufakis had a special responsibility to build on the goodwill generated after years of austerity, and the efforts of the Samaras administration to work with the EU. On both counts he appears to have failed as he realizes that the 4 months of uncertainty ending in a total lack of communication between both sides, has cost Greece by worsening the economy. Posturing and personality, compounded by inexperience, may have distracted from the real work of serious negotiations. The IMF chief Christine Lagarde had emphasized at the outset the need for Greece to fix its tax system with high degree of tax evasion, an issue on which Syriza could have acted quickly. Some of the period before the elections was used to prepare the EU for negotiations with Syriza, and Syriza needed to be prepared on this issue. Yet no action was taken on a plan to tackle this issue- on the grounds, says Varoufakis, of lack of time. He only rationalizes this when he says it is only a short term cost for the long term future of young people. ...

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David Brooks of the NYT describes the approach taken by British prime minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party government to help the working class poor in Britain, and tackle the social roots of poverty. He says an American adaptation similar to this is badly needed in the Republican Party, with the candidates in the election providing solutions from an old rulebook. Only after Trump's popularity with appeals to less educated older Americans has the Republican leadership responded, with Speaker Ryan helping organize a forum on poverty under the Jack Kemp Foundation- emphasis was placed on education, work, opportunity and accountability for anti-poverty programs in the discussion moderated by Ryan and Senator Tim Scott. Less attention was paid to the other social aspects mentioned here by Brooks, and cited by Cameron when he described the inadequacy of traditional solutions from the right and left of the political spectrum. Cameron outlined the principles of his anti-poverty plans called "Life Chances Strategy," in a speech on Jan. 11, 2016, in north London, with the entrie transcript on the gov.uk website. Cameron acknowledged in the speech that social issues including single parent families, and other social problems such as long term unemployment, can make it harder for some people to use self-reliance and personal responsibility in a growing economy as a way to grasp opportunities. Cameron proposes a combination of economic, social and job growth strategies. His second term plans include 30 hours a week of free childcare for 3 and 4 year olds so both parents can work, parental maternity leave, expansion of Troubled Families Program, in addition to the introduction of National Living Wage, tax cuts, universal credit. In tackling social aspects of the problem Cameron cited the need for development in the early years of childhood, the huge importance of family, social connections and experiences, informal mentors, cultural experiences, broadenend horizons, that enable young people to acquire language skills, character and resilience. Second term projects include expanding reach of high performing schools to deprived areas, emphasis on core English, math, science, history, geography Ebacc skills, a 1 billion pound investment in the National Citizens Service by 2021, a plan to transform housing estates including rebuilding from scratch, additional 1 billion pounds to provide mental health treatment including treatment within 2 weeks in homes and communities. Throughout Cameron's "Life Chances strategy" is aimed at tackling not just the material dimensions of poverty, but also what he describes is broken in Britain- "the paucity of opportunity."...

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Krugman points out that the federal tax rate for the top 1% is 34% in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office, because president Obama let the high end Bush tax cuts to expire. It is the number to remember says Krugman- 34. In 2008 the figure was 28.2. Under Hillary Clinton the average tax rate for the top 1% would go up by 3.4 percentage points, according to the Tax Policy Center. Some of this would help pay for the tution plan to provide access to the middle class to public universities. Under populist Trump, Krugman points to the elimination of the inheritance tax and tax rates going down substantially, and no such programs to promote the upward mobility that everyone is talking about, and no way to pay for a big infrastructure building effort for growth and jobs- upward mobility that is the focus of every candidate's election campaign including Sanders, Trump in appealing to older white working class families, Clinton, Ryan, Bush, and others in both parties.   ...

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There are similarities in the Republican and Democratic party platforms in 2016. One area of agreement is in the reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act. That legislation made in the Depression period to separate commercial banking from investment banking was changed  when president Clinton made changes in a deal with Senators Phil Gramm and Jim Leach in 1999. The too big to fail problems of banks and the problems of investment banks during the 2008 financial crisis are attributed to the lack of Glass Steagall protections for financial stability and safety. The result is that in the post 2016 environment banks can expect a tougher regulatory environment. Another are is in trade where both parties are expected to take tougher positions to protect U.S. interests. The Republican platform calls for "better negotiated trade agreemets that put America first."

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The shift of voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in the South such as Georgia and South Carolina, and the Deep South such as Mississippi and Alabama, started in the sixties with the civil rights movement. Reagan tapped into it by making his first post convention trip to Alabama, where George Wallace had already worked up white southern voters on segregation in the way Trump is doing today on immigration. Strom Thurmond was one of the high profile southerners shifting from Dixiecrat Democrat to Republican in South Carolina. After Thurmond in the fifties the Republican formula was to mix cultural issues with economic conservatism, with Nixon, then Reagan, and then Bush. Reagan added religious conservatives to the cause. Now says Emory University Prof. Joseph Crespino, this is changing as the more educated college educated white collar professionals that Goldwater once appealed to shifting in 2016 to the Democratic Party in places like Georgia and South Carolina. This is a result of the rhetoric of Trump resembling that of George Wallace and Thurmond in the Deep South. With demographic changes there is also new infusion of people from the North to the South in major urban areas. The result in 2016 is that the South no longer appears the way it once was. ...