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The risks facing Spain in 2012 with austerity measures when unemployment is at 23%
03/06/2012
Finance Minister Luis de Guindos sees Spain loosing either way with spending cuts that worsen high unemployment and lower economic growth leading to a worsening debt to GDP ratio in 2012, and this situation in turn raising its borrowing costs on $86 billion in debt issuance for 2012. He estimates the debt to GDP ratio will increase under the 2012 budget of 27 billion euros in cuts and an economy shrinking by 1.7% in 2012, by 10% from 2011 to 78%. Markets are focussing on debt in Portugal and Spain in 2012, after focussing on Greece and Italy in 2011.
Linked Articles
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Spain Struggles to Unite Regional Leaders on CutsNew York Times 03/06/2012
President Obama's position on Iran and Israeli public opinion in 2012
03/05/2012
Linked Articles
Obama Challenges Republicans on Iran
New York Times 03/06/2012
Israelis Embrace Washington's View Regarding Unilateral Military StrikeWall Street Journal 03/05/2012
Tax increases on the wealthy in Japan by the Shinzo Abe government to go with an increase in the sales tax to 10%
03/04/2012
Linked Articles
Tokyo Set to Raise Levy on Wealthiest
Wall Street Journal 01/11/2013
Prime Minister Noda says tax hike essential for Japan's sustainability - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/04/2012
Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, and the Development Research Center (DRC) think tank
02/23/2012
The road map and priorities of the DRC and the PBOC are now the road map and priorities of the Jinping-Keqiang administration A sense of deepening awareness takes hold on party leaders Jinping and Li Keqiang that the current trajectory of Debt to GDP ratios could lead to the kind of situation before the banking crisis in Japan and S. Korea. The importance of striking a balance with growth of private companies to support future growth and move away from reliance on state owned enterprises is part of the change supported by DRC and PBOC.
Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
New Push for Reform in ChinaWall Street Journal 02/23/2012
The IMF's view on austerity measures, the "German hypothesis," and the British economy
02/17/2012
The IMF's view is that it could take 5 years before the breakeven point on the effects of austerity measures is reached and it turns positive. The "German hypothesis" based on German experience as an exporting nation is that the benefits come sooner in the short term. For Britain, which is not an exporting nation like Germany, the benefits from exports are likely to be limited when the rest of Europe is'seeing declining or stagnant growth. The IMF view means Britain may be faced with the costs of the Cameron-Osborne austerity measures till 2016.
Linked Articles
Britain's Economy Contracts More Than Predicted
New York Times 03/28/2012
Austerity Debate a Matter of DegreeWall Street Journal 02/17/2012
The need for U.S. leadership 2016-2020 with the crises in Europe and the Middle East
02/11/2012
Linked Articles
U.S. leadership matters today, just as it did after World War II - The Washington Post
Washington Post 03/28/2016
Why the World Needs AmericaWall Street Journal 02/11/2012
High used car prices and resale values in the U.S. in 2012-2013
02/06/2012
Linked Articles
That Car in the Driveway Is Now Worth More
Wall Street Journal 08/01/2012
Used-Car Prices ClimbWall Street Journal 02/06/2012
Research in motion's Blackberry faces steady decline with slow sales of Blackberry 7 smartphones
01/28/2012
Blackberry takes a $267 million writeoff on unsold Blackberry 7 model phones at retail stores in March 2012. After new CEO Thorsten Heins took over his strategy was to put put more of the new Blackberry 7 model phones into user hands. The failure to compete with new Android phones and the Apple iPhone places Research in Motion into a position from which it will be hard to recover.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/30/2012
New RIM Chief Plots OverhaulWall Street Journal 01/28/2012
The passage of the unpopular sales tax hike and political uncertainty in Japan
12/27/2011
Critics say the Democratic Party of Japan should have invested efforts in its election promises to cut wasteful spending. Polls show a majority of Japanese oppose the doubling of the sales tax to 10%.
Linked Articles
Vote Ensures Japan Will Double Sales Tax to 10%
Wall Street Journal 06/27/2012
Tokyo's Move to Raise Tax Hits SnagWall Street Journal 12/27/2011
The beginning of a negotiated settlement of the Afghan conflict through direct talks with the Taliban in 2012
11/13/2011
America's veteran diplomat, Richard Holbrooke- who is known for the Dayton Accords that settled the conflict in Yugoslavia-initiated the early efforts for a negotated settlement with all the warring factions including the Taliban, the ISI and the Pakistan military. After his death in 2010, these efforts were continued by Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey. The Taliban's willingness to open an office in Qatar and the willingness of all sides to talk directly opens the path to a negotiated settlement.
Linked Articles
Against Odds, Path Opens Up for U.S.-Taliban Talks
New York Times 01/11/2012
Book review: ‘The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/13/2011
Mexico's war on drug gangs, rising crime and problems of public safety for middle class families- the situation in Cuernavaca, Mexico
10/15/2011
Linked Articles
For Mexico’s middle class, drug war deepens trust deficit - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/02/2012
Calderon Defends Militarized Response to Mexico's Drug WarNew York Times 10/15/2011
Question for Turkey- can it reduce its current account deficit of 10% in March 2011 to 6% before a sharp swing in capital inflows leads to a crisis?
09/21/2011
Only 25% of capital inflows to Turkey are direct foreign investment. The current account deficit of 10% is partly financed by foreign capital inflows. Any swings in consumer sentiment- especially as the eurozone crisis continues in 2012-2013- could mean rapid capital outflows leading to a crisis. The IMF's Warning Light Indicator in 2011 for countries with excessive credit growth to GDP ratios covers Turkey.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.New York Times 09/21/2011
A more outward looking Chinese leadership of Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping in 2012-2020
08/22/2011
Linked Articles
Heartland Return for Chinese Leader
Wall Street Journal 01/31/2012
China Previews Rising LeadershipWall Street Journal 08/22/2011
China's Stimulus plan in 2012-2013 and the problem of "uncoordinated, unbalanced and unsustainable development"
03/06/2012
China's premier Wen Biao told the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012, that it was urgent to tackel the "problem of uncoordinated, unbalanced, and unsustainable development." He called for "an acceleration of the transformation" of the economic model towards consumption and away from exports and infrastructure spending. The accelerated approval of 254 investment projects in May 2012 puts off this task of rebalancing development for China and the world economy. With slowing growth in China and the last Stimulus of 2008 having propelled the housing bubble, the options were limited. A decrease in the reserve requirement by 0.5% in 2012 for China's banks was not expected to spur growth because lending was not expected to increase, as the demand for loans is low. A sharp falloff in growth below 7% was feared leading to the acceleration in investment.
Linked Articles
China’s stimulus policy means trouble down the road - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/31/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
Israeli military chief Jodi Rudoren's view about a diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear crisis and the views of ordinary Israelis in 2012
03/05/2012
Linked Articles
Israeli Army Chief Says He Believes Iran Wonât Build Bomb
New York Times 04/26/2012
Israelis Embrace Washington's View Regarding Unilateral Military StrikeWall Street Journal 03/05/2012
The dire need for a free trade agreement between India and Pakistan
03/01/2012
Trade between India and Pakistan was only $2.7 billion. This is smaller than India's trade with Sri Lanka. Michael Boskin, who was instrumental in setting up the North American Free Trade Agreement says trade models suggest that this should be around $50 billion, or 20 times larger, and would bring benefits in wages and economic conditions in the two countries.
Linked Articles
A Passage to India-Pakistan Peace
Wall Street Journal 04/16/2012
Pakistan to Ease India Trade LimitsWall Street Journal 03/01/2012
Exit from the Eurozone and return to the drachma as the most likely and best outcome for Greece after April 2012 elections
02/22/2012
John Taylor and the Ifo Institue's Sinn say the recapitalization of Greece's banks and the lower interest rates negotiated after the March 2012 bailout make exiting the euro and achieving economic growth doable. The Papdemos government's need for time till 2015 to complete the program of changes, and the elections in April 2012 in which opposition parties outpolled Pasok and New Democrachy lays the political groundwork for the exit.
Linked Articles
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The Indian government's plan to bring the deficit down over 5 years to 3% in 2017
02/14/2012
In response to the policy of the Reseve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, to hold off on interest rate changes till the government takes action in reducing the deficit, the Indian government lays out a plan to bring the deficit down to 3% by 2017, and 5.3% in the fiscal year ending March 2013. The government is under pressure to come up with an economic strategy to deal with the slowing economy with growth forecasts lowered to 5-6.5% for 2012. The risk of India's credit rating being being lowered to junk status and drastic slowdown in foreign investment is creating a crisis atmosphere after a period of indecison.
Linked Articles
India Lays Out Deficit Targets
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
Increasing foreign investment in Indonesia
02/07/2012
Foreign investment in Indonesia increased by 20% to $20 billion in 2011, and continues to grow in 2012. Investment comes from Singapore, Japan and S. Korea and other countries, with investments in the countries plantations, coal mines and in factories producing consumer products for the rapidly growing middle class in a country of 240 million people.
Linked Articles
Indonesian Economy Grows at Top Clip Since '90s
Wall Street Journal 02/07/2012
Foreign Investment Jumps in IndonesiaWall Street Journal 04/23/2012
Clues to China's future 2013-2020- the background and thinking of new leaders Jinping and Li Keqiang
01/31/2012
The ideas and thinking of China's leaders and how this will affect China and the global economy.
Linked Articles
Heartland Return for Chinese Leader
Wall Street Journal 01/31/2012
Next Premier Came of Age in Era of OpennessWall Street Journal 11/16/2012
"Hiroshima" 1945 and the Siege of Leningrad 1941-1942 - What a post war Russian, American and Japanese generation could understand and what is lacking in the Middle East
01/27/2012
Noonan asks the question about what a post war generation of Americans, Russians and Japanese could understand about the horrors of nuclear war and of the Second World War, and how this is lacking in the Middle East as each nation strives for nuclear weapons from Iran to Saudi Arabia. Separately in another link Kaname Harada asks a different question- has a new generation in Japan born after 1945, both leaders and the public, forgotten about that period including "Hiroshima."
Linked Articles
Vladimir Putin Describes Loss of a Brother at Ceremony
New York Times 01/27/2012
Misplaying America’s Hand With IranWall Street Journal 04/04/2015
The huge disparity betwen Mexican American high school dropout rates nationwide and in New York city, and the abysmal college enrolment rate
11/24/2011
Semple cites census data showing about 40% dropout rate for the Mexican American immigrant community in New York city, with no other minority community having more than a 20% dropout rate. The college enrollment rate for the Mexican American immigrant community is cited as ony 6% and cause for alarm considering the large Mexican American immigrant community in New York and and nationwide. This is much worse than the rate for the Mexican American community in the U.S. and for Hispanics in the U.S. as The recent Pew Hispanic Center study shows a 76% high school completion rate and a 46% college enrollment rate for U.S. Hispanics 18-24 years with a high school diploma for 2011.
Linked Articles
Mexicans in New York City Lag in Education
New York Times 11/24/2011
Hispanics' College Enrollment Surges, Report FindsNew York Times 08/20/2012
Imran Khan and the changing democratic process in Pakistan
10/30/2011
Linked Articles
Has Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif changed his stripes? - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/10/2013
Ex-Cricket Star Leads Big Antigovernment Protest in PakistanNew York Times 10/30/2011
China's move forward with nuclear energy after the Fukushima nuclear accident
10/10/2011
A move away from coal used for electricity supplies towards nuclear energy. The increase planned is from 11 gigawatts of nuclear energy in 2012 to 40 gigawatts by 2015 and 60-70 gigawatts by 2020. Five nuclear energy projects will be planned at a cost of $27 billion with financing help from a Shanghai IPO offering in 2012.
Linked Articles
China Nuclear Firm Plans Up to $27 Billion IPO
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2012
China Marches On With Nuclear Energy, in Spite of FukushimaNew York Times 10/10/2011
Mercedes Benz targets younger buyers with smaller cars
09/14/2011
The average age of Mercedes Benz buyers is 53 years compared to 49 for BMW and Audi. Mercedes targets younger buyers with the B class compact.
Linked Articles
Benz on a Budget, Angling for Youngsters
New York Times 03/14/2014
Mercedes Renews Small-Car PushWall Street Journal 09/14/2011
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