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Statistical problems with China's government statistics which understate the housing bubble and overstate the rate of growth in 2011-2013
02/17/2011
Problems with data from China's Bureau of Statistics which do not accurately reflect the economic conditions in China.
Linked Articles
Chinese Data Said to Be Manipulated, Understating Slowdown
New York Times 06/22/2012
China Scraps Property Data, Clouding ViewWall Street Journal 02/17/2011
The Elop memo in 2011 and the sale of Nokia's mobile phone business to Microsoft in 2013- the startling change of fortunes for Nokia
02/09/2011
Nokia was a pioneer in the development of mobile phones in an earlier era when fixed lines were the norm. It dominated the mobile phone business in the period before 2009 for 2 decades before the coming of smartphones. The change in Nokia's market came quickly and suddenly with the advent of the iPhone and Nokia was unprepared for this development. This is a classic case of obsolesence and disruptions caused by innovation and new technologies. Other companies from the previous era before cloud computing and the internet, H-P, Oracle, IBM, and Microsoft, face the continuing challenge to adapt or lose to new competitors.
Linked Articles
Microsoft in $7 Billion Deal for Nokia Cellphone Business
Wall Street Journal 09/03/2013
Full Text: Nokia CEO Stephen Elop’s ‘Burning Platform’ MemoWall Street Journal 02/09/2011
Egypt's economic crisis and falling behind the modern world- the future and the road back to growth and opportunity
02/03/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2011
Muslim Brotherhood Looks West in Bid to Revive Egyptian EconomyWall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Angela Merkel's experience with the reunification of East and West Germany and her views of the eurozone crisis
01/30/2011
The perceptions of the eurozone crisis of ordinary Germans and of former East German Angela Merkel are colored by the period of reunification of the two Germany's. This was paid for with a"solidarity surcharge" tax paid by Germans amounting to $1.7 trillion and led in its early stages to 4 million unemployed in the eastern part and 20% unemployment. It took over a decade for East Germany to build new modernized industries in the larger cities of the east, but still leaves the rural parts of former East Germany in a neglected state as young peoplemoved out. During this period industry in the west also regained lost global competitiveness, especially in industries such as automobiles and advanced machinery, using wage restraint agreements with unions and increases in productivity. Germans see the need for eurozone countries in the southern part of Europe needing to make similiar sacrifices and see the tax evasion in Italy and Greece as unacceptable. The real estate bubble, the lack of transparency for banks bad loans, and out of control regional spending in Spain is also seen in a similiar light. Greece is seen as the most egregious offendor because of the bad financial accounting that grossly understated the extent of the bad loans. Less publicized in Germany is the role played in the bad loans through poor lending practices of German and French banks and that as experts have pointed out Germany was to some extent bailing out German banks when it was bailing out Greece- till German banks reduced their exposure to Greece in 2011.
Linked Articles
In former East Germany, anxious residents resent paying for Europe’s problems - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/21/2012
Merkel's Defense of Euro Forged in East GermanyNew York Times 01/30/2011
Dim outlook for Rebalancing the World Economy
01/20/2011
The widening U.S. trade deficit with China in 2011 and no evidence of a shift to domestic consumption in the Chinese economy make it increasingly unlikely that there will be a rebalancing in the world economy.
Linked Articles
No Appreciation for the Rising Yuan
Wall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Don't Bank on China 'Rebalancing'Wall Street Journal 01/20/2011
China's efforts to build its Strategic Oil Reserves in 2011-2012 and pressure on oil prices in 2012 (2)
12/30/2010
Linked Articles
China Seen Bolstering Oil Reserves
Wall Street Journal 04/11/2012
China May Throw Wrench Into Oil MarketWall Street Journal 12/30/2010
Housing in a deep slump in 2011.
10/16/2010
Housing markets surveyed show rising inventories. The faulty documentation crisis likely to make things worse for banks with efforts to force banks to buyback loans.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2010
Housing Gloom DeepensWall Street Journal 10/26/2010
The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Italy's borrowing in capital markets - 2011-2012
06/03/2010
Linked Articles
Italy Seeks to Spur Growth, Narrowing Gap With Peers
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2011
Italy's Shot of Southern DiscomfortWall Street Journal 06/03/2010
Apple products at manufacturing plants in China and at retail stores in the U.S.- low worker pay and lack of future prospects
05/29/2010
The high margins for Apple achieved through a combination of keeping costs low- even at the risk of providing poor wage and working conditions for the majority of employees employed in the retail stores in the U.S. and in supplier Foxconn plants in China- and by a grasp for innovation and technology. The paradox of a well deserved image for pioneering in technological innovation and the indifference to working conditions and prospects for employees who add value in manufacturing and customer interface. This model of growth is a recent development, put in place after 1997. In 1995-1997 Apple was nearing collapse under Michael Spindler and Gil Amelio, as documented by WSJ technology reporter Jim Carlton in his book- "Apple- The Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders." Steve Jobs returned as CEO in 1997 and set the future course and this model in place emphasizing design, his ability to grasp technologies that would appeal to customers, and hired Tim Cook to set up the manufacturing which had high rate of defects and higher costs. The model was as full of paradoxes, of genius combined with mediocre behavioursas the man Steve Jobs. Tim Cook has responded to criticism in 2012 by having the Fair Labor association audit Foxconn plants in China. Foxconn increased wages in 2012, shifted plants to the interior of China, and increased use of robotics.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/29/2010
Apple Stores Army, Long on Loyalty but Short on PayNew York Times 06/23/2012
The need for a new European economic government to back the euro currency.
04/29/2010
The French view that there should be a common economic government and clear institutional responsibilities and the German view that is not so willing to cede national sovereignty in economic matters. The fiscal and structural flaws that need to be repaired for the euro currency to work.
Linked Articles
Economist 05/13/2010
As Greek Drama Plays Out, Where Is Europe?New York Times 04/29/2010
Rehman Malik's admission that the miliants are entrenched in the southern Punjab.
04/29/2010
How this affects the American war efforts allied with poor governance in Afghanistan as problems lead back to Pakistan.
Linked Articles
Official Admits Militancyâs Deep Roots in Pakistan
New York Times 06/02/2010
U.S. Report on Afghan War Finds Few Gains in 6 MonthsNew York Times 04/29/2010
Hope and reality in Nigeria (2)- President Goodluck Jonathan 2011-2015, and President Muhammadu Buhari 2015-2019
02/20/2010
The hope of so many young Nigerians rest on Buhari getting things right and restoring confidence in government and the management of the economy after four years of the Jonathan adminsitration.
Linked Articles
Muhammadu Buhari Defeats Goodluck Jonathan in Nigeria Election
Wall Street Journal 04/01/2015
An Accidental Leader Stirs Hopes in NigeriaNew York Times 02/20/2010
Winding down U.S. housing agencies Fannie and Freddie- the U.S. Treasury report of 2011 (2)
02/12/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2011
Number of the Week: Government’s Overwhelming Role in MortgagesWall Street Journal 02/12/2011
Sobhi Saleh of Egypt- from parliament to protests and the panel rewriting the constitution
02/04/2011
Nicholas Kulish's account in the NYT Feb 4, 2011, must rank as an exceptional piece of international coverage and journalism. It provides a heart rending account of the member of parliament from Alexandria. Arrested in the protests for democracy, Saleh makes his way out from a prison set on fire. Saleh is a member of an eight member panel rewriting the constitution in Feb. 2012.
Linked Articles
Egypt's Military Names Constitutional Panel
Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
Why a Member of the Muslim Brotherhood Was Late to the RevolutionNew York Times 02/04/2011
Egypt's economic development and falling behind the modern world- IMF guidance and the road back to growth and opportunity
02/03/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2011
Egypt and IMF Reach Tentative Loan DealWall Street Journal 11/21/2012
Greece's Path Back (10)- Germany's and chancellor Merkel's view of the euro and the changes needed
01/30/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/10/2013
Merkel's Defense of Euro Forged in East GermanyNew York Times 01/30/2011
How Samsung jumped ahead of Sony in the smartphone market- the dismal failure of the Sony-Ericsson joint venture
01/07/2011
The glaring weaknesses of the Sony-Ericsson mobile joint venture was the slow decisionmaking and the inability to take advantage of Sony's strengths in manufacturing and its companywide technological capabilities. As late as 2011 Samsung was struggling behind other competitors. A key advantage was the quick decisionmaking and marshalling of resources within the company for the smartphone effort in Samsung. The joint venture proved to be a disaster for Sony.
Linked Articles
Samsung Moves in Smartphone Race
Wall Street Journal 01/07/2011
Sony Stakes Recovery on New SmartphoneWall Street Journal 03/01/2013
Taylor and Cochrane say the French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion in the Greece debt crisis from the beginning
12/02/2010
Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. Taylor at Stanford University, say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning as a way to delay writedowns on Greek bonds held by the banks. The appearance of lurching from one summit negotiation to the next throughout 2011 dented confidence in the eurozone with slowing or negative growth in eurozone economies, and is likely to hurt banks operating in the new economic enviroment.
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The warnings on trade in 2010-2011 and sharply shifting public sentiment in the U.S. across all age, income and education groups
10/02/2010
A WSJ poll in 2010 showed that between 1999 and 2010 public sentiment had completely changed seeing trade as hurting American workers. A study by counties in the U.S. by Autor, Hanson, and Dorn showed the damage done by trade policy for American manufacturing workers. By March 2016 in the U.S. presidential election Michigan primary large gains were made by Republican and Democratic candidates opposing trade agreements including TPP negotiated by president Obama.
Linked Articles
Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade
Wall Street Journal 09/27/2011
Americans Sour on TradeWall Street Journal 10/02/2010
The paradox of low U.S. productivity growth holding back wages in 2015-2016 (2)- Apple, Google, Facebook and low productivity improvement since 2005
07/01/2010
Linked Articles
Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs
BusinessWeek 07/01/2010
The Mystery of Declining Productivity GrowthWall Street Journal 05/15/2015
The rise in wages in China in 2011-2013
05/29/2010
Linked Articles
China's Wage Hikes Ripple Across Asia
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
Hon Hai to Raise Workers' PayWall Street Journal 05/29/2010
The plausible threat of deflation in 2011.
05/27/2010
Experts see deflation as a very real possibility in 2011 and beyond. This creates poor prospects for growth.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/11/2010
The Recovery: Why Deflation Remains a ThreatBusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Lack of credible progress in Afghanistan in 2010.
04/29/2010
A Defense Department biennial report and an independent report by Ann Marlowe after her sixth embed with American forces on the ground both confirm the lack of credible progress and attribute it to the lack of credible governance in Afghnistan. Failure of the current US administration to take good governance seriously.
Linked Articles
Strategy vs. Tactics in Afghanistan
Wall Street Journal 06/02/2010
U.S. Report on Afghan War Finds Few Gains in 6 MonthsNew York Times 04/29/2010
Greece's Path Back (8) - How things went wrong: Lessons
03/03/2010
Linked Articles
Ratings Firms Misread Signs of Greek Woes
New York Times 11/29/2011
Europe's Original SinWall Street Journal 03/03/2010
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