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Housing Gloom Deepens
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Half of the 109 economists and housing analysts polled in October 2010 by MacroMarkets LLC, expect home prices to bottom in 2011, and half don't expect home prices to bottom till 2012. Backing this up is growing inventory in many markets. The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of housing market conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas showed inventories of unsold homes were up in 19 markets at the end of 3rd quarter 2010, compared to the prior year. The largest increases were in California- in Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Diego. Only parts of Texas, and Washington D.C, and some other areas which have shown decent job growth are an exception. In the Realtor's Report, median home price fell 2.4% to $171,700 in September 2010 from a year earlier. This data does not include the suspension of foreclosures due to title defects, which will further dampen prospects of a recovery in housing. This will affect New Jersey, Florida and other "judicial" states, where the banks must complete foreclosures through court. At the current sales pace it would take 10.7 months to sell the 4.04 million home inventory of unsold homes, according to the recent NAR report. Six to eight months is considered normal. This does not reflect the "shadow" inventory of homes in some stage of foreclosure, which is estimated at around 4 million, creating a problem that even current low rates for a fixed rate mortgage of 4.21% cannot solve.
The U.S. housing market in 2010-2013
05/27/2010
According to Karl Case its basically flat in 2010 and quite fragile, with a lot of inventory out there. By 2012 the situation had not changed much, except for Washington D.C. with growth in employment, and a small spurt in 2011 in Phoenix from out of state and Canadian buyers. Prices in Las Vegas and other cities continued to decline and there were fears of more homes being released by banks from foreclosed properties in judicial states such as Florida.
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The faulty foreclosure paperwork crisis that is hitting U.S. banks.
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New York Times 10/14/2010
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U.S. Banks handling of foreclosures and mortgage securities.
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A Toxic Subprime Mortgage Bond's Legacy Lives On
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The American economy in 2010-2012: Looking ahead the risks and possibilities.
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Housing, hiring, the strength of the stimulus and capital spending will determine what 2010-2012 looks like for the U.S. economy.
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Economist 10/01/2009
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The Case Against the Bernanke-Obama Financial Rescue
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Underwater, but Will They Leave the Pool?
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Anger Over Foreclosures Exposes Political Divisions
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Banks forced to buyback loans because of faulty documentation.
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One Mess That Can't Be Papered Over
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Commentary: Mortgages Lost in the Cloud
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Housing in a deep slump in 2011.
10/16/2010
Housing markets surveyed show rising inventories. The faulty documentation crisis likely to make things worse for banks with efforts to force banks to buyback loans.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2010
Wall Street Journal 10/26/2010
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