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Oil, Auto Companies Make Plans to Invest in Iran if Sanctions Ease
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Estimates of the contraction of the Iranian economy in 2012-2013 show GDP declines for 2012 and 2013. The IMF estimate of the economic contraction for fiscal year ending March 2013 was 6%. Former president Ahmadinejad's policies led to hyper inflation, a sharp depreciation of the currency rial, similiar to the situation in Venezuela under Chavez and Maduro. To get a sense of the the scale of the damage to the Iranian economy- a decline of 39% in vehicle production in 2012 with the lack of essental parts and decline in demand, oil production declining to about 700,000 barrels at one point in 2013 from over 2 million barrels in the period before 2012. This was a result of lack of access to needed technology and parts as sanctions began to take a toll, and because of the decline in exports from the enforcing of sanctions by 2013. By June 2014 the newly elected leader Rouhani had made economic recovery the to priority- inflation had been cut in half and the rial currency had recovered from the lows in 2012-2013, and oil production increased to 1.2 million barrels. The IMF forecast is for GDP growth of 2.35% for 2015. The auto maker Khodro Industrial Group is keen on increasing production and partnering again with Renault, which left the country with the sanctions. Iran's oil producing company estimate is that about 700,000 increase in production could be achieved quickly with the lifting of sanctions for oil technology and parts. Rouhani has put together a large group of business leaders inside Iran and overseas to improve Iran's image with investors and attract foreign investment.
Iran and protests over worsening economic conditions in 2012
10/04/2012
With the sudden loss of value of the rial by 40% in September 2012, Iran is seeing a spiralling down of the economy. The economic protests include merchants, students, and a wide spectrum of society. Protests call for an end to Iran's support of Syria and against the Ahmadinejad government.
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A majority of Ahmadinejad's minister are from the Revoutionary Guards or the militia allied to it. He himself was a Revolutionary Guards officer. The emrgence of adictatorship which controls the Ayatollah Khamenei. The opposition now consists of the pragmatic conservatives, clerics who do not support Ahmadinejad, students and poor in rural areas.
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Economic sanctions and the drastic drop in the value of the Rial, Iran's currency, in 2012
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In September alone the value of the Rial dropped by 40%. From the end of 2011 to Oct. the Rial had lost 75% of its value. In one day the currency lost 13%. The exchange rate declined to about 3 dollars for 100,000 rials.
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The failure of social spending supported by oil to improve economic conditions and the standard of living- the case of Venezuela and Iran
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A critical factor in this situation is the failure to integrate into the world economy. Under these conditions for Iran sanctions for a nuclear program and support for Syria's regime creates a sort of "pariah" status, and for Venezuela the rhetoric and state control have led to a similar situation. Because technological inputs and foreign capital and knowhow are critical for development, policies of this kind can do long term damage to the economy and reduce standards of living. Both countries have failed to invest in basic refining capacity. At the other side is Nigeria which has also failed to invest in refining capacity. In Nigeria rampant corruption eats away at the core. All three countries are oil producing countries with crumbling infrastructure and failure of the state to provide the right direction to stimulate growth.
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The near collapse of Iran's state owned Gas Company following crippling western sanctions
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The failure to develop natural gas resources with the withdrawal of Total and other western oil companies and the lack of access to new technologies is severely hurting Iran. Iran sits on top of the world's second largest gas reserves but gas exports are limited to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Qatar which borders a large Iranian gas field has moved to develop its gas reserves with the help of Shell and other oil companies.
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The disastrous policies pursued under president Ahmadinejad led to serious contraction in the economy and decline in crude oil output in 2012-2013. The effort to reverse this under president Rouhani in 2014-2015 with easing of sanctions and improved investor sentiment.
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Iran's economy and politics in 2010-2014
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The reduction in fuel and other subsidies and opposition in Parliament.
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Wall Street Journal 07/02/2014
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Iran's economy after the global economic crisis of 2008-2009.
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Ahmadinejad was elected Iran's President in recent elections. He has changed Iranian oil policy to adjust to Iran's foreign policy stance on many issues and on the nuclear issue.
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A program giving $12 a month to help the poorest Iranians will be wound down as Iran faces a cash shortage. Electricity prices are expected to increase by 90% in 2014. Inflation running at over 40%in 2013 is down to 32%. President Rouhani faces a economy in much worse shape than realized because of mismanagement under previous president Ahmadinejad. Only a small part of the sanctions have been relaxed in the nuclear agreement with western countries.
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The Iranian economy under president Hassan Rouhani- 2013-2016
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Turkey's relations with Iran and economic sanctions
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Turkey's export of gold to pay for Iranian natural gas breaching international sanctions in place to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
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In Risky Deal, Ankara Seeks Security, Trade
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Attracting foreign investment in Iran's oil industry 2014-2015
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Iran's Falling Oil Output Means Less Revenue, Clout
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