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IMF Says Recovery Remains Fragile
Keywords:
Reflecting the volatile nature of the global economy with systemic risks remaining, impact of sharp cuts in spending, and the danger of oil prices exceeding $150 with a mideast crisis, the IMF provided a wide range of possibilities around its basic forecast. The IMF says it expects the global economy to grow 3.5% in 2012, up 0.2% from a Jan. forecast, and a forecast of 4.1% for 2013. But the IMF says this depends on the eurozone crisis, which could take off 2% from global output and 3.5% from output in the eurozone if things went wrong in Europe. Higher oil prices above $165 with supply disruptions after Iranian sanctions are another danger. Its forecast for Europe is 0.3% contraction in 2012 and 0.9% growth in 2013. Because of the risks in the outlook the IMF cautions countries from cutting spending too quickly, and says the best approach is to reduce deficits gradually over the long term and not to move too fast in the short term. This word of caution applies to Spain, the UK, France and Germany. To maintain enough funding in a crisis the IMF plans to increase its lending capacity from $380 billion by an additional $280 billion, with pledges of $60 billion from Japan, $26 billion from the Nordic countries, and $200 from other eurozone countries.
The IMF's changing views on the value of austerity measures and the "German hypothesis"
04/05/2009
The IMF's economic models suggest that it would take 5 years for the breakeven point at which the economic benefits of austerity measures start exceeding the costs of the measures in declining GDP and higher unemployment. The German view is that this can occur in the short term.
Grouped Articles
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
Known for Tight Spending, I.M.F. May Have to Loosen Reins After G-20 Windfall
New York Times 04/05/2009
Germany Considers Remedies for Slowing Growth
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2014
Merkel Hints at Economic Policy Shift in Germany
New York Times 10/09/2014
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
Christine Lagarde as the new head of the IMF
04/28/2010
Grouped Articles
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Charlie Rose Talks to Christine Lagarde
BusinessWeek 04/28/2010
Congress Can Help the U.S. By Reforming The IMF
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2014
The U.S. Should Ratify Its Agreement to IMF Reform
Wall Street Journal 04/02/2014
I.M.F. Chief Lagarde to Face Inquiry on â07 Accusations
New York Times 08/04/2011
Lagarde: All Countries Must Help Europe
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2011
Soul searching about the lack of changes to make the financial system safer after the 2008 global financial crisis
01/15/2010
Soul searching at the IMF, Britain's Financial Services Authority and among experts about the lack of serious changes or reforms in the financial system after the global financial crisis of 2008. Bondholders did not take a haircut in Ireland, and large banks are still "too big to fail." A sense that this could happen again.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street's Giants Try 'Flow Monster' Formula
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2013
GE Capital, AIG to Get More Government Oversight
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2013
Obama Presses Regulators to Finish Financial Rules
Wall Street Journal 08/20/2013
Weâre All Still Hostages to the Big Banks
New York Times 08/25/2013
Volcker Rule to Curb Bank Trading Proves Hard to Write
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2013
After a Financial Flood, Pipes Are Still Broken
New York Times 09/14/2013
Austerity measures facing European countries in 2011-2013
11/13/2011
Grouped Articles
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
New York Times 11/03/2013
The 'Silent Austerity' in Banking
Wall Street Journal 01/21/2014
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
New York Times 11/30/2014
Austerity in Europe Brings Bitterness Unknown in Postwar Era
New York Times 11/13/2011
France's austerity plans and pension reform 2010-2014
06/16/2010
Grouped Articles
New York Times 11/10/2013
Hard times force French to work longer -- to age 62
Washington Post 06/16/2010
France's Lagarde Forecasts Austerity
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2010
French Unions Protest Pension-Age Overhaul
Wall Street Journal 09/08/2010
French Senate Passes Pension Bill
New York Times 10/22/2010
French Cabinet Is Dissolved, a Victim of Austerity Battles
New York Times 08/25/2014
Italy's austerity measures- 2011-2013
06/30/2011
Grouped Articles
Italy Urged to Resist a Relapse in Spending
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2013
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
EU Won’t Reject French, Italian Budgets
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2014
New York Times 11/30/2014
Italian Government Advances Austerity Plan
New York Times 06/30/2011
Wall Street Journal 07/12/2011
The IMF comes out on Spain's side in 2012 saying deficit reduction should have taken into account the weaker economic outlook
09/27/2011
The IMF in April 2012 says cuts in Spain may be too severe and cautioned that austerity measures could push Europe into recession.
Grouped Articles
Still Sputtering, Spain Turns Away From Cuts
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2013
Europe to Vote on Tougher Rules for Currency
New York Times 09/27/2011
German Optimism Depends On Spanish Deficits
Wall Street Journal 09/25/2013
The 'Silent Austerity' in Banking
Wall Street Journal 01/21/2014
Euro Zone Deficit Hits Target for First Time Since 2008
New York Times 04/23/2014
Saying No to Austerity, Spain Unveils Tax Cuts
New York Times 06/20/2014
The 2012 austerity budget in Spain under prime minister Mariano Rajoy
03/30/2012
Grouped Articles
Still Sputtering, Spain Turns Away From Cuts
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2013
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
Spain Emerges From Recession but Sees More Austerity Ahead
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
New Spanish Budget Free of Austerity Measures
New York Times 09/27/2013
Saying No to Austerity, Spain Unveils Tax Cuts
New York Times 06/20/2014
How Righteousness Killed the World Economy
New York Times 10/12/2014
The austerity spending cuts and new taxes in Greece- 2011-2012
06/28/2011
Grouped Articles
Greek Patience With Austerity Nears Its Limit
New York Times 12/29/2014
Greek Ship Owners Fear Syriza Tax Plan
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2015
Greece Wanted to Reframe Europe’s Austerity Debate. It Failed.
New York Times 07/01/2015
Mirage of Economic Turnaround Masked New Greek Crisis in the Making
Wall Street Journal 07/05/2015
Wall Street Journal 06/29/2011
Two-Day Strike in Greece Ahead of Austerity Vote
New York Times 06/28/2011
Francois Hollande, Socialist party candidate for president in France, on the EU's handling of the debt crisis in Greece
06/30/2011
Francois Hollande says the EU mishandled the Greece crisis. Greece should have been handled as an extraordinary situation with earlier debt restructuring from public and private creditors to bring Greece's debt down to 60% of GDP. The current coordinated plan of the EU, ECB and the IMF only brings debt down to 120% of GDP in 2020. Hollande said he understands the need to reduce the budget deficit with cuts but without growth it can't work.
Grouped Articles
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
French Candidate Hollande Assails European Policy on Greece
New York Times 02/13/2012
Athens Shaken by Riots After Vote for Greek Austerity Plan
New York Times 02/13/2012
Austerity Debate a Matter of Degree
Wall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The IMF's March 2012 Report on Greece predicting "a disorderly exit from the euro" in the absence of further support
05/27/2010
The IMF says Greece is still "accident-prone" after the dept swap with private bondholders in March 2012. Its competitiveness problem may take a decade to resolve.
Grouped Articles
A Warning Light to Alert the I.M.F.
New York Times 09/21/2011
EU Dismisses IMF's Criticism On Greek Bailout
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2013
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
Greece Can Learn IMF Austerity from Turkey
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Past Rifts Over Greece Cloud Talks on Rescue
Wall Street Journal 10/07/2013
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
IMF's Lending Capacity 2010-2015
04/05/2009
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/13/2010
Congress Can Help the U.S. By Reforming The IMF
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2014
Known for Tight Spending, I.M.F. May Have to Loosen Reins After G-20 Windfall
New York Times 04/05/2009
IMF Expects to Double Its Lending Capacity
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2010
IMF Plan Sees Role for Fund in Crises
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2011
I.M.F. Says Europeâs Debt Crisis Could Spread
New York Times 05/12/2011
Britain's perilous path with austerity cuts, inflation and lower economic growth- 2011-2015
06/22/2010
Grouped Articles
The economy: On a wing and a credit card
Economist 07/08/2013
U.K. Moves To Tackle Income Squeeze
Wall Street Journal 08/20/2013
The Curious Case of Britain's Economic Recovery
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2013
U.K. Politicians Vie to Address Fall in Living Standards
Wall Street Journal 11/18/2013
U.K. Government Prepares For Deep Budget Cuts
Wall Street Journal 06/22/2010
British Towns and Institutions Reel From First Austerity Cuts
New York Times 08/09/2010
Italy, Spain and austerity measures- 2011-2013
08/08/2011
Analysts point to the austerity measures adopted by Italy and Spain much earlier than other countries in the eurozone. The risk now is cutting into muscle as growth for 2011 is expected to be below 1% in both countries. Italy say analysts is actually in surplus when the interest on debt is excluded.
Grouped Articles
Italy Urged to Resist a Relapse in Spending
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2013
Still Sputtering, Spain Turns Away From Cuts
Wall Street Journal 05/12/2013
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
New York Times 11/03/2013
Saying No to Austerity, Spain Unveils Tax Cuts
New York Times 06/20/2014
European Finance Ministers Support Investment Program
New York Times 09/14/2014
The twin problems of lack of growth under austerity plans and overvalued currencies of Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal
06/24/2011
The twin problems of lack of growth and overvalued currencies under the solutions of austerity plans without debt reduction and a single euro currency create impossible odds for a resolution of the eurozone financial crisis. Germany's insistence on tough austerity measures, European banks delaying restructuring of bad loans similar to the U.S. Brady plan, failure of politicians in Italy and Greece to take early action, and small steps by policymakers, are compounding the effects of the eurozone crisis.
Grouped Articles
German Election Overturns Political Order
Wall Street Journal 09/23/2013
New York Times 11/03/2013
Germany's Surplus Isn't the Problem
Wall Street Journal 11/11/2013
The 'Silent Austerity' in Banking
Wall Street Journal 01/21/2014
Italy Central Banker Is Open to 'Bad Bank'
Wall Street Journal 02/10/2014
Saying No to Austerity, Spain Unveils Tax Cuts
New York Times 06/20/2014
Portugal's austerity measures and the financial crisis 2010-2015
09/27/2010
Collapse of the government in Portugal in 2011, after failing to win support for further austerity measures.
Grouped Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2013
Portugal Returns to Bond Market
Wall Street Journal 05/08/2013
Portugal Plans Cuts in Spending
Wall Street Journal 05/30/2013
Portugal's Government Thrust Into Turmoil
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2013
Lisbon Cabinet Shuffle Buoys Junior Coalition Party Leader
Wall Street Journal 07/08/2013
Portugalâs President Calls for Early Elections
New York Times 07/11/2013
The impact of austerity measures on various parts of Britain.
07/03/2010
Impact of the Cameron government spending cuts across the UK.
Grouped Articles
U.K. Politicians Vie to Address Fall in Living Standards
Wall Street Journal 11/18/2013
British Towns and Institutions Reel From First Austerity Cuts
New York Times 08/09/2010
Radical Britain: The unlikely revolutionary
Economist 08/14/2010
As the Working Poor Become More Common in Britain, So Does Hunger
New York Times 01/02/2014
U-Turn in the U.K.: Big Spending Cuts
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2010
Jack Monroe Has Become Britain’s Austerity Celebrity
New York Times 01/14/2014
The IMF's signal of caution for austerity measures in Spain in April 2012, saying a gradual approach to deficits is best considering the risks
04/18/2012
The IMF's words of caution also apply to austerity measures being undertaken in Great Britain.
Linked Articles
IMF Says Recovery Remains Fragile
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2012
Spain Dips Back Into Recession, Banker Cautions
Wall Street Journal 04/18/2012
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