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Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless
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The U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report for 2011 shows Fed purchases of 61% of total net Treasury issuance. Goodman points out that the net issuance of Treasury securities for covering U.S. budget deficits is normally 0.6% to 3.9% of GDP on average for the last six decades since 1950, compared to on average 8.6% of GDP today. A big jump in Fed purchases with a corresponding steep fall in the participation of foreigners and the private sector. Foreign purchases declined from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 1.9% of GDP in 2011. U.S. private sector- mutual funds, banks, corporations and individuals- purchases declined from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 0.9% of GDP in 2011. This helps keep interest rates low and funds U.S. government needs. Lawrence Lindsay pointed out in the WSJ in 2011 that Fed has itself boxed in being forced to keep interest rates low for years. If the government borrowed at a more normal rate of 5.7%, instead of the Fed induced rate of 2.5% today, Lindsay estimated the U.S. government would face an additional $800 billion in interest costs by 2021.
How the 1937 Pullback under FDR affects current economic policy under Bernanke and Yellen
01/27/2009
Economic policies under FDR in the 1930's. The Fed's Bernanke is acutely aware of the 1937 pullback and its lessons. This will influence current policy.
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How much of a factor were low interest rates under Greenspan in creating a bubble in housing prices?
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Comparisons of the U.S. Economy with Japan, considering the Federal Reserve's easy money policy and little lending by banks.
10/15/2009
Is the US economy already in a liquidity trap with exploding monetary growth and little consumer lending asks Christopher Wood. Views of other experts on the subject.
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Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
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Lawrence Lindsey on how Bernanke's Fed has boxed itself in with no choice but to keep interest rates low and no clear exit strategy
01/04/2010
Economist Lindsey says Fed chairman Bernanke has to keep interest rates low for the U.S. government to be able to cope with the increase in borrowing costs that normal interest rates would bring. The normalized interest rate - the rate at which the U.S. government was able to borrow for the last three decades- is about 5.7%. At that rate the U.S. government would add $800 billion to borrowing costs for 2021, says Lindsey. The U.S. now borrows at about 2.5%
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With 40% of the unemployed in the U.S. shown as long term unemployed, mismatch in skills and other structural problems with unemployment, the U.S. Federal Reserve policies of Fed chairman Bernanke are geared to addressing this problem.
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Liquidity Trap in Japan and the U.S.
03/17/2008
With the demand curve for money horizontal further increases in the money supply do little to lower interest rates, or as in the current situation where the interest rates in the US are virtually at zero so that further increases in the money supply do little to stimulate the economy. As unemployment is growing and the financial sector weak, Bernanke and the Fed see other ways in which quantitative easing helps a recovery. Here Chritopher Woods compares today's situation in America to that of postbubble Japan. He says America is already in a liquidity trap. And the regulatory forbearance to cleanup the banking mess is similiar to that in postbubble Japan when it took the government years to get up the will and strength to straighten out the mess including breaking up the banks that are too big to fail.
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Is the U.S. Economy Turning Japanese?
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Fed’s Bullard Raises Policy Concerns
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Opinions Are Split on Fed Policy Move
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Ben S. Bernanke - What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability
Washington Post 11/04/2010
Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has got itself boxed in with little choice but to keep interest rates low
06/15/2011
Federal Flow of Funds Report for 2011 by the U.S. Federal Reserve shows 61% of net Treasury issuance was purchased by the Fed. Lindsey points out that the Fed has itself boxed in to keep rates low for years because for the U.S. government to borrow at more normal rates of 5.7% rather than the 2.5% at which it borrows today, would mean an addition $800 billion in interest costs by 2021.
Linked Articles
Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2012
Wall Street Journal 06/15/2011
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