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Treasury’s Got Bill Gross on Speed Dial
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The Public-Private Investment Program of the U.S. Treasury Department has not had a good start. With most banks passing the U.S.government's stress tests and raising $50 billion in the markets, PPIP which was intended to to help resolve the situation of all the toxic securites siting on the bank's books, has gone the way of all the prior efforts to solve this problem. Simply postponed this time hoping that the housing market recovers. With the Rogoff-Reinhardt study showing that it takes about 6 years or longer before housing recovers from such aserious crisis as this one, it would be 2012, before one sees an improvement. See the link to the Business Week analysis that shows housing markets in the USA having some aspect of normalcy in 2012. Yet even this analysis is using an optimistic scenario, because it assumes Moodys Economy.com estimates of economic growth for GDP of 4-5% in 2011- 2012. This assumes the consumer debt that has reached over 100% of GDP will be reversed quickly in 2010, and the the factory capacity utilization currently at 68% and expected to drop further in 2009- with more automobile manufacturing capacity remaining to be scrapped -will recover quickly in 2010-2011. This is unrealistic considering the combination of factors at work. Here Devin Leonard talks to PIMCO chief Bill Gross, who with Warren Buffett and PIMCO CEO Mohammed El-Erian, are key proponents of the PPIP program. Both El-Erian and Warren Buffett say they conceived independently of such a program, in which toxic securties are taken off bank's books with government help. As PIMCO is one of the largest traders of mortgage bonds in the country and has years of successful experience in dealing with mortgage bonds, the New York Fed under Geithner turned to PIMCO for advice in 2008. By this time PIMCO was under ownership of Allianz, a German insurer, which bought PIMCO for $3.3 billion in 2000, with $233 million and a $40 million retention bonus going to Bill Gross. Bill Gross describes how the program would function. PIMCO puts up $500 million, and Treasury matches this with $500 million. Analysts estimate that this partnership would be able to attract as much as $ 4 billion in low interest financing from Treasury and the Fed. Gross says that some of these securities pay as much as 14% interest, and even with a 70% default rate, this partnership could make $250 million a year on the $5 billion partnership, or a 5% return, with PIMCO making a 25% return on its original investment. This isn't exactly pro bono work as Buffett had originally suggested to Bill Gross in the midst of the crisis. But a more fundamental concern is that no one really knows exactly how much of toxic securties the banks have on their books, even though estimates have been made. If this is closer to $1 trillion, PIMCO's expertise and efforts will simply fall short of dealing with a problem of this size, and the window dressing of a problem of this magnitude could only hurt efforts for the eventual resolution of this problem. If housing does not recover as is expected till 2012 at the earliest, and the economy continues to deteriorate in unemployment and factory utilization, then the toxic securities on the bank's balance sheets may pose a bigger problem that will require serious action.
Treasury Secretary Paulson and the U.S. Economy
01/28/2008
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Stress tests of U.S. banks by the Obama administration.
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What the stress tests of the banks by the Federal Reserve did and what they failed to do. By coming up with amilder stress test after intense bargaining with the banks have the stress test adequately protected transparency? Have they muddied up the problem of putting banks on their feet by not taking the strong action to clean up balance sheets that is needed, and making it appear that banks are healthier than they actually are.
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Nouriel Roubini, the man the European Central Bank calls to know whats around the next corner.
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Lessons from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the example of South Korea and other countries.
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The lessons S. Korea shares with the G20 from its banking crisis in the late 1990's, with nonperforming loans of banks at 40-50% of GDP according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Banks had to be merged, closed or nationalized using BIS standards for reserves in a short time. It also led to asevere contraction in the Korean economy as banks not only stopped making loans but called in outstanding loans. This contraction reached minus 7% in the second and third quarters of 1998. The bigger challenge now is how to resolve the bad asset problem without seeing such huge hits to the American economy which would further depress the global economy and have unforeseen consequences. Already Comerice department estimates are for a 6.3% contraction in the US econmy for 4th quarter 2008.
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The failure of the Obama administration to break the cycle of foreclosures begetting falling house prices begetting more foreclosures, further weakening the banks and the economy, with strong action. It continues the missteps of the Bush period and may undo much of the good work in other areas such as stimulus, restructuring the auto industry and new priorities. Inaction here is coupled with inaction in relation to insolvent banks and is likely to prove costly.
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Peter Eavis thinks the Geithner plan isn't based on sound logic.
03/23/2009
If only the confidence and liquidity were an issue then maybe the Geithner Public Private Investment Program plan might work. But says Eavis, the underlying price structure for these mortgage securities is gone with this crisis,so that the recovery in their price for banks to avoid huge losses is going to be elusive. He cites Credit Sights which estimates losses of US banks through 2010 of $250- $450 billion.
Linked Articles
Treasury’s Got Bill Gross on Speed Dial
New York Times 06/21/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs Speculators
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
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