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How low interest rates from the banks created 2009 financial crisis were squeezing Americans and most of all seniors
06/05/2024
In 2010 Charles Schwab pointed out that low interest rates were squeezing Americans, most of all seniors on fixed incomes and pensions. In 2024 first quarter the higher interest rates in one quarter alone created an additional $770 billion in interest and dividends for Americans, many of them seniors, according to US Federal Reserve. This is the damage done by the recklessness of the banks and financial sector and seniors have paid heavily for this and for the wars in the Middle East which reduced the growth potential of the US economy that were embraced by Reagan and Bush, Trump and Obama. The war money was not used to build new infrastructure to replace the old as it should have been leading to China having new infrastructure and America's being aging and worn out.
Linked Articles
Low Interest Rates Are Squeezing Seniors
Wall Street Journal 03/30/2010
Americans Have More Investment Income Than Ever BeforeWSJ 06/05/2024
The collapse of American education and the slowest growth in America's history 2000-2020 as Biden tries to reverse this in 2024
05/19/2023
Krugman looks at the extraordinary effort put in by Robert Gordon of Northwestern University to look at the growth of America since 1850 over periods 1850-1870, 1870-1910, 1910-1950, 1950-2000 and 2000-2020 showing that the last 20 years have the lowest growth in American history. Gordon looks at the near collapse of American education, scores on NAEP of two thirds of 8th graders failing reading comprehension reflect this sad state of affairs that president Biden is trying to reverse in 2024. Other research shows a drop in potential GDP of 2 percentage points when education is failing as it has been for 2 decades. Other researchers have shown what is openly evident today that technology such as social media do more harm, that other internet use technology has not done much for education only established monopolies as with Google and Apple.
Linked Articles
Paul Krugman Reviews ‘The Rise and Fall of American Growth’ by Robert J. Gordon
New York Times 01/25/2016
'Secular Stagnation' May Be for RealWall Street Journal 08/27/2014
Clean drinking tap water for every home - the stark contrast between China and India
04/05/2023
What this tells one is that GDP requires a new indicator which is Quality GDP which will mean that if you pollute rivers and air then real GDP as an economic concept is totally inadequate even useless, unless one subtracts from that economic GDP number the amount of investment it would take to clean up the rivers or the air. If regulatory agencies cannot control industries from polluting rivers, the case in China, then an additional number has to be subtracted from economic GDP called regulatory deficiency adjustment. The GDP numbers were gained through indiscriminately burning fossil fuels and this means climate change damage so that to be correctly stated China's GDP number would have to be offset by deducting the adjustment for trillions of dollars in climate change correction action. This would shrink the gap between India and China's GDP to where India may be in a position using advanced technology, renewable energy, regulation, and large foreign investment to close the gap with China in the next 10-15 years. China could also benefit because of the new approaches taken by India could be something to learn from as the two countries each have the population of the EU and the US+ Canada combined.
Linked Articles
In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe | Deng Tingting
The Guardian 06/02/2017
Jal Jeevan Mission achieves 60% of its target, says govtHindustan Times 04/05/2023
How the transition from the Soviet Union in 1985-1989 was mismanaged by Gorbachev leading to a 40% drop in GDP, 2000% inflation, drop in life expectancy , worse than the US Great Depression in the 1930's
09/03/2022
It is not commonly known in the US how bad the collapse was in Russia after 1989. An understanding of this in the US and Europe not just of the Fall of the Berlin Wall and its effect on Eastern Europe and West Germany, is needed to get a complete understanding of what happened and the events leading up to the war in Ukraine and threats to US and the EU. It also helps in framing solutions for the future that include lessons learned.
Linked Articles
Mikhail Gorbachev, Germany's most beloved Russian, has died | DW | 31.08.2022
DW.COM 08/31/2022
Opinion | Wonking Out: The Nightmare After GorbachevNYTimes.com 09/03/2022
India's growth predicted at an "unprecedented acceleration" in 2021-2022 after the pandemic
12/08/2020
India's unprecedented growth in mobile manufacturing planned for 2025 under PLI incentives and in 5G technologies by 2021-2022.
Linked Articles
HTLS 2020: India’s new era will be defined by the idea of decentralization
Hindustan Times 12/08/2020
‘India will prove cynics wrong...’: Mukesh Ambani on economy, Jio 5G, vaccineHindustan Times 12/08/2020
Lessons in Fighting the Coronavirus - Flattening the Growth Curve
04/12/2020
Linked Articles
These simulations show how to flatten the coronavirus growth curve
Washington Post 03/20/2020
Are Countries Flattening the Curve for the Coronavirus?NYTimes.com 04/03/2020
The gaps in Tesla's financing and Elon Musk's ambitions
04/02/2018
Linked Articles
Tesla Looked Like the Future. Now Some Ask if It Has One.
The New York Times 03/29/2018
Cash Gets More Precious at TeslaWSJ 08/02/2017
Corporate America's choice between corporate buybacks and increasing wages/making capital investments for growth to help the middle class
03/01/2018
Linked Articles
Boom in Share Buybacks Renews Question of Who Wins From Tax Cuts
WSJ 03/01/2018
Corporate Tax Cut as Growth Elixir? Foreign Experience Suggests CautionWSJ 05/01/2017
How U.S. economic growth and interest rates can play out in ways contrary to what is expected for 2017-2019
12/14/2016
Linked Articles
Will the Trump Era Bring Higher Interest Rates? Don’t Count On It
The New York Times 12/14/2016
A Trump Economic Boom? The Fed May Stand in the WayThe New York Times 12/13/2016
The dangers in the Trump position of high tariffs for the U.S. and global economy- instead of higher growth consensus of estimates point to U.S. and global recession and layoffs
03/25/2016
Linked Articles
Five myths about trade - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/10/2016
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could BackfireWall Street Journal 03/25/2016
The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China
10/21/2015
Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.
Linked Articles
China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains
Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015
Yum Brands to Split Off China BusinessWall Street Journal 10/21/2015
The failure of the U.S., UK, Canada and Australia to take in refugees from war torn Syria and other parts of North Africa- 1500 for U.S. , 166 for UK, 800,000 for Germany
09/04/2015
Ignatieff of the Kennedy School and Kristof of the NYT say the inaction of Obama, Cameron, Harper and Abbott, is deplorable considering the gap between the 800,000 Merkel and the German people have openly welcomed and the 1500 the U.S. has accepted, and 166 the UK has taken in. There is hardly any mention of the issue by the leaders of the U.S. and Canada in September 2015, even as the global media has covered this daily. In Hungary the Orban government faile to remember the Hungarian uprising of 1956 and the violent crackdown by the Soviets, leading to a wave of refugees reaching other parts of Europe and the U.S.
Linked Articles
New York Times 09/04/2015
The Refugee Crisis Isn’t a ‘European Problem’New York Times 09/05/2015
Errors made by the IMF, Syriza Tsipras far left government, leading to the third bailout program of 2015 for Greece
07/06/2015
Just when the first signs of growth in the economy were taking place in 2014 the IMF held back on a 7.2 billion euro payment to Greece which would have increased liquidity to the private sector for growth. The IMF hope to gain leverage with a future Syriza far left government. The first half of 2015 led to economic anxiety in Greece with a failed negotiating strategy of Syriza far left government focussing only on the debt and not on the economy. The damage led to about 85 billion in addtional financing needed following the closing of Greece's banking system in July 2015.
Linked Articles
IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
How to Undo the Damage in GreeceNew York Times 07/06/2015
Li Keqiang and the era of Openness in China 1977-2023
11/02/2023
LI Keqiang was able to pass entrance exams to Peking University in 1977 after entrance exams were reinstated following Mao's death. He led the modernization of China during the 2000-2022 period two decades of fast growth turning China into a middle income industrialized country after centuries of decline. During this period China urbanized at a rapid rate and Li's advanced studies focused on urbanization. It was also a period when China realized the damage done to the environment and quality of air, water, with haphazard growth, and shifted to climate change action through focus on solar energy and limiting use of coal.
Linked Articles
China Mourns Former Premier Whose Death Hovers Over Xi Jinping
WSJ 11/02/2023
Next Premier Came of Age in Era of OpennessWall Street Journal 11/16/2012
Mr. Trump's loosening of banking regulation and regulatory culture and the crisis it caused.
04/29/2023
The laws passed in the US Congress to limit the regulation of US banks imposed after the 2009 crisis led to leaving a gap for midsized banks where there would be less regulation. The appointment of Randy Quarles to Fed Vice Chair Supervision by Mr. Trump in 2019 led to the new culture which took the attitude the less regulation the better 14 years after the 2009 banking crisis, and the collapse of several banks in 2023, endangering the US banking system when the US needs a huge capacity to invest in the nation.
Linked Articles
Limits to China's economic recovery from local government debt and smaller pool of savings
03/07/2023
A smaller pool of savings and build up of debt during the pandemic limit the extent of China's economic recovery. The trillions of dollars of local government debt and the slowdown in the construction sector act as barriers to growth in China.
Linked Articles
Covid-Era Savings Are Crucial to China’s Economic Recovery
WSJ 02/26/2023
China’s Cities Struggle Under Trillions of Dollars of DebtWSJ 03/06/2023
Years of hyper growth followed by slight or shrinking growth in China
07/31/2022
For years China pushed hyper growth without correctly understanding the sources of that hyper growth and its consequences in the long run. Communities in the US and the EU simply could not cope with the hyper shift of factories from local regions to China that created the hyper growth in China. Local governments in China and self interested investment banks in the US and Eu pushed for this growth and the central government failed to act with restraining action. The result is alienated public in the US and EU, intense trade and competitive frictions and permanent damage to friendly US China, US EU relations. The domestic side of this hyper growth was the overdependence on the property sector which was asked to carry a bigger burden for development leading to the crisis today with local governments strained for financing by $900 billion as reported in WSJ today July 31. 2022. This did not need to happen. China entered this experiment with capitalism without restraining action with very little knowledge of the market economy and how it operates correctly only with restraining and corrective action in the interests of the whole people of the country. Too much has gone wrong for peoples on either side, the unintended effects and consequences in the simple unbridled pursuit of self-interest alone.
Linked Articles
China’s Economy Tested by Strained City Finances
WSJ 07/31/2022
China’s Manufacturing Sector Unexpectedly Contracts Amid Weak Demand, Covid LockdownsWSJ 07/31/2022
Coronavirus impact on economy- over 10% second quarter GDP decline in Europe
08/01/2020
Linked Articles
Coronavirus leads to record drop in German GDP | DW | 30.07.2020
DW.COM 07/30/2020
Eurozone GDP drops 12.1% in record pandemic plunge | DW | 31.07.2020DW.COM 07/31/2020
Economic losses of 3% in GDP per head with Brexit and 8% with no-deal Brexit leaving Britons poorer
12/01/2018
As the Brexit option becomes clear as a hit to ordinary Britons and the British economy prime minister Theresa May takes her deal to the British parliament for a vote. Most opinion says it will be rejected, if not rejected outright by Conservatives and Labour MP's. A second vote may be taken. The Opposition Labour Party prepares for a new election with a divided government.
Linked Articles
The Economist 11/30/2018
Don’t write off the prime minister’s deal just yetThe Economist 11/30/2018
Do tax cut benefits go mainly to the 10% of Americans who own 84% of the stocks- evidence of corporate buybacks vs increasing wages/new capital investment for growth to help the middle class
03/01/2018
Linked Articles
Boom in Share Buybacks Renews Question of Who Wins From Tax Cuts
WSJ 03/01/2018
Tax Cuts Benefit the Ultra Rich, but Not the Merely RichThe New York Times 12/19/2017
Is the growth boom that supports the case for 2017 tax cuts skewed to higher income Americans based on evidence?- views of Greg Ip (WSJ) and Krugman (NYT)
12/20/2017
Linked Articles
Corporate Tax Cut as Growth Elixir? Foreign Experience Suggests Caution
WSJ 05/01/2017
Opinion | Passing Through to CorruptionThe New York Times 12/18/2017
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Trump's solution for creating jobs- an illusion?
03/23/2016
With no tangible solutions for creating jobs, and a policy of high tariffs that could create trade wars and destabilize the global economy hurting growth worldwide, jobs lost in the last decade mostly not coming back, questions raised about how this will improve the prospects for jobs, upward mobility for middle class, working class people.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2016
A transcript of Donald Trump’s meeting with The Washington Post editorial board - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/23/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
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